Been updating some of my baseball notes and thought I'd share a couple of interesting ones for a couple of ballparks.
Wrigley Field (Chicago Cubs): As most of you probably already know, most books will not post an overnight Over/Under on Cubs home games because of the wind factor. Usually that "total" is the last to be posted by books of all the games because of the huge role the wind could play in deciding whether the game goes over or under the posted total.
TTM$ already posted some numbers for Wrigley, but thought I'd share some as well. Over the last 5 years, I looked at the numbers for whether the wind was blowing out or blowing in and came up with the following:
With the wind blowing out whether it be out to left, out to center or out to right field, the OVER is hitting at a pretty good clip at 58.5 % (72-51). This is something that shouldn't surprise people, even with the high totals the books post when the wind is blowing out. The "jet stream" at Wrigley usually gets the better of it and thus the higher amount of "overs."
With the wind blowing in, you might be surprised with the Over/under numbers. With the wind blowing in whether it be in from left, in from center, or in from right field, the OVER is hitting at a very high 57.7% (89-65). I'm not sure if this is partly due to public perception or what, but it's obvious the books are overreacting to a degree with the wind blowing in situation and it's something to keep in mind.
Bank One Ballpark (Arizona Diamondbacks): Also an interesting Over/Under betting situation at this ballpark. Basically when the roof is open, the numbers are astonishing. Over the last 5 years with the roof open, the OVER is hitting at 67.1% (98-48). I think this pretty much speaks for itself in how well the ball carries when the roof is open.
Of course, I still wouldn't bet into the above situations blindly, but it's something that should pull some weight when capping out the games. An example that could really magnify the situation for playing an OVER would be if a "fly ball" pitcher is pitching at Arizona with the roof open or pitching at Wrigley when the wind is blowing out.
GL,
-ndnfan
Wrigley Field (Chicago Cubs): As most of you probably already know, most books will not post an overnight Over/Under on Cubs home games because of the wind factor. Usually that "total" is the last to be posted by books of all the games because of the huge role the wind could play in deciding whether the game goes over or under the posted total.
TTM$ already posted some numbers for Wrigley, but thought I'd share some as well. Over the last 5 years, I looked at the numbers for whether the wind was blowing out or blowing in and came up with the following:
With the wind blowing out whether it be out to left, out to center or out to right field, the OVER is hitting at a pretty good clip at 58.5 % (72-51). This is something that shouldn't surprise people, even with the high totals the books post when the wind is blowing out. The "jet stream" at Wrigley usually gets the better of it and thus the higher amount of "overs."
With the wind blowing in, you might be surprised with the Over/under numbers. With the wind blowing in whether it be in from left, in from center, or in from right field, the OVER is hitting at a very high 57.7% (89-65). I'm not sure if this is partly due to public perception or what, but it's obvious the books are overreacting to a degree with the wind blowing in situation and it's something to keep in mind.
Bank One Ballpark (Arizona Diamondbacks): Also an interesting Over/Under betting situation at this ballpark. Basically when the roof is open, the numbers are astonishing. Over the last 5 years with the roof open, the OVER is hitting at 67.1% (98-48). I think this pretty much speaks for itself in how well the ball carries when the roof is open.
Of course, I still wouldn't bet into the above situations blindly, but it's something that should pull some weight when capping out the games. An example that could really magnify the situation for playing an OVER would be if a "fly ball" pitcher is pitching at Arizona with the roof open or pitching at Wrigley when the wind is blowing out.
GL,
-ndnfan
