A Couple World Cups Qualifiers this weekend

[flapjack]

Two games that interest me this weekend:

England at Wales-Under and England

Bulgaria at Sweden-Over and Sweden

Just read that England will experiment with only one striker with a 4-5-1 formation in this match - Owen is suspended. Two teams met last year in England and England won 2-0. Welsh striker and main scoring threat is also out. I think after the 4-1 embarassment vs Denmark, England will not let in a goal and I think Welsh will be stuborn defensively at home esp with a more defensive England but ultimately English will take care of business and I like the under 2 1/2 -105.

Sweden lit up Bulgaria 3-0 in Bulgaria last year in qualifiers. They are back to full strength up front and just beat the Czechs in a friendly. They will hammer the Bulgarians back home in Sweden and it should go over 2 1/2 goals. Sweden's WC Qual. games have seen 25 goals scored in 6 WC qualifying games (4.2/game) - 22 of them Sweden's. Bulgaria's games have seen 22 in 6 games (3.7/game). I love the over in this at a very resonable 2 1/2 -125. Larrson, Ibrahimovic, Ljundberg, Alback - few teams in the world with this type of offensive fire power - and they are finally all healthy at the same time.

 

[InSpades]

Do we play the handicap in all these games or the money line?

If it does not say in the writeup, should we assume the handicap?


IS

 

[flapjack]

I always prefer the handicap and will bet that. However, my book hasn't put up the handicap yet - only the $-line and the over/unders. I am hoping for the handicap to be -1 for both Eng & Swe with some nice - close to even odds, but have no idea. The $ line for both teams is -250 right now.

 

[moe777]

2.5,,that is a nice # on sweeden..bulgaria is a pretty bad team this campaighn,i ssee 3-0 sweeden win at the least ..im on the over to .gl flap.

 

[flapjack]

Got Sweden -1 1/2 even and then Sweden -280.

 

[InSpades]

Well, I hope the Swedes style is to feel out their opponent the first half and take them in the second half.

Good luck to us.

IS

 

[flapjack]

Frustrating game, the whole game has been played in Bulgaria's half. This should be about 5-0 Sweden right now. Watching it on Fox Soccer Channel, how they have only put 1 in with dozens of good chances I have no idea. With 1/2 hour to go and Bulgaria now down a man, I'm still confident that Sweden and the over can be winners. They are just firing at will on the Bulgarians.

Adding the next game on after this - Czech Republic +120. They're on the road in a tough environment, but no ones playing better - and they need a win to keep up w/Holland.

Nice 1-0 victory by England - hit the under, but could not get a handicap from my book last night so didn't play England - which i'm guessing would have been a push anyway if it was -1.

 

[flapjack]

2-0 Sweden - 1 more goal to go.

Put these chumps away!

 

[flapjack]

3-0 Sweden! Amazing goal w/less than a minute left!

 

[InSpades]

That goal made up for a loss I had yesterday.

How is this for a bad beat?

I played a Irish match yesterday with a 0+/.5 line. Goes into extra time tied 0-0 with the other team two men down and they score.

Ever had a loss like that?

IS

 

[flapjack]

3-0 on the day w/the no bet on England - I'm guessing I'd be 3 wins, 1 push if I did get my bet in - I dunno. Moe called it "3-0 at least."

IS- I've had more bad losses than I care to remember, but to lose the way you did yesterday is a crime.

Let's go Czech's - Make it a perfect day.

 

[moe777]

:clap: :clap: glad i didnt watch this one..3-0 :mj14:

 

[InSpades]

There seems to be a trend of low scoring games in these qualifying matches. Is that usually the case?

Is taking the under in these games a possible betting angle?

IS

 

[moe777]

There seems to be a trend of low scoring games in these qualifying matches. Is that usually the case?

IS

no trends,,just this late in the qualifying stages lots of teams have no chance ,some teams clinch with a draw so they put every body back ,some dont start their best,already clinched.got to be ontop of things this late in qualifers..for instance ukraine /georgia ended up in a 1-1 draw today.if this game was a must win for ukraine i think you would of saw 5-1..usa/ mexico today,both teams know they will be in,but this is a big rivalry,home team usually takes it.usa today should and i think will get it done.

 

[flapjack]

The key in these games is motivation. Gotta know what the teams are trying to achieve as much as capping the actual quality of the teams. For example - If a draw will do for a strong team, then look for an under. If a team is already out of it, you might see a much weaker side as they try to play youngsters for the future.

 

[flapjack]

25 minutes left, but the Czech game is a loss. I'm off to have several dozen at the bar. Good day in the books.