A Few Early Thoughts on the Preakness

[kingfin66]

This may not be too coherent, so please bear with me as these are just some thoughts popping into my head as I peruse the pps (before odds of pp known to me).

Champali - Interesting horse in that he has had an improving Beyer pattern despite trouble in his last 2 starts. He's beaten lesser competition and held his own against rivals in the last 2 (G2 and G3) races despite trouble. Worthy of exotics consideration.

Cherokee's Boy - His best races have come when he is on or near the lead. It has, for the most part, taken soft paces for him to be on the lead. No way does he get near the lead Saturday. I'm tossing him.

During - Bobby B. just has to get some action in the big races doesn't he. This one has won a Mdn Spl Wt, hung tough in an allowance, won a claiming race, and gotten pummeled in a G3. Those 100+ Beyers from Santa Anita look pretty good on the surface but so did Buddy Gil and Indian Express. I don't think this one is as good as either of those and I see the distance as bad also. Throw out.


Foufa's Warrior - Well, he is a closer which is a rarity in this race full of horses with speed and tactical speed. He has -0- speed and won't be close enough to have a chance. I see him as a throwout.

Funny Cide - I have a soft spot in my heart for horses that win my cash. Funny won me serious cash. Sentiment aside, he is the best horse in the race. He holds a double figure Beyer advantage over the field (last 2 Beyers the highest) and is one of only 2 G1 winners in the field (Peace Rules is the other). Peace Rules is his only real competition as far as I can tell. He figures to be on or very near the lead as in the Derby and is the legit favorite in this race. I would definitely key him in exotics, but there isn't much value in a win bet.

Kissin Saint - Not a bad horse, but can't hang with PR or FC. Took a distant third in the Wood behind Empire Maker and FC. There is nothing to indicate enough improvement to overtake the Big 2, but I would definitely consider in the bottom of exotics. He will likely have to be coming from behind on Saturday.

Midway Road - The king of the N2x allowance. He will find this group (at least PR and FC) more difficult to dominate. He seems outclassed, but so do other and 3rd place is wide open in this affair. Not totally sold, but haven't tossed him either.

Peace Rules - See Funny Cide. G1 winner and 2nd best Beyers to Funny Cide. Very consistent...in good form...could easily win. An alternate key horse to FC.

Scrimshaw - Not a great showing in the Derby and not a great horse. He does have a nice G2 win under his belt in the Lex and has had huge amounts of trouble. Will the real Scrimshaw please stand up?

Senor Swinger - He put the 'ger in Swinger baby, yeah! I'll pass, although the race could set up decently for a closer.

Ten Cents A Shine - Throw out.

There isn't going to be much value in the win betting for either FC or PR. In some races, however, there are often overlays in the exotics pools. I am considering these strategies. They are by no means final:

Trifecta - Funny Cide over Peace Rules over ALL

Trifecta - Peace Rules over Funny Cide over ALL

Trifecta - FC over PR, Kissin Saint, Champali over BOX

Trifecta - PR over FC, Kissin Saint, Champali over BOX

Exacta Box - Funny Cide/Peace Rules

 

[Valuist]

I think one of the 2 favorites will win but I wouldn't be surprised to see the other off the board. We see this so often; two main contenders both going all out and one survives and the other falls apart. I think the value will be getting the price shots underneath in the exactas or tris.

Both Champali and During are out of the Preakness.

 

[kingfin66]

I heard that Champali and During were out after my original post. As far as value. I'm really leaning toward using the trifecta option of using FC in the win position, PR in the place and the field in the third, then reversing the top tow in another similar trifecta.

My take on the race is that there are a lot of speed and/or presser types, most of whom have either never run against the type of pace ran in the Derby (and should be run Saturday) or have run against it and little or no success. FC and PR drew bad posts but have such superior talent to the others in the race that they really should be able to overcome it. In my opionion, the other speed type horses are the ones that will spit the bit, and the two contenders will be far in front of the others at the wire.

As for third place, I don't see a big standout, but would probably lean toward Kissin Saint followed by New York Hero. There are few enough of them that I can include all of them in the 3rd spot in my tri.

A $1 trifecta on FC/PR/ALL would be $7. I will likely go with $6 tickets on this combo plus PR/FC/ALL.

I will also make a straight win bet on PR (a little more value than FC but not much). The slightly shorter distance and a little bit softer pace could be enough for him to win.

As for exactas, I will probably stick with my PR/FC box.

Can anybody out there make a compelling argument for anybody other than PR/FC winning this race?

 

[gjn23]

here's the argument:

when it looks too easy to be true, it usually isn't.

These two look to be the best two horses does that guarantee they finish 1-2, NO. Plus you probably won't win much money on that trifecta. Throw in the rain/mud/sloppy track and anything is now possible.

 

[SeattleSlew]

Well, the outside post has an awful record in this race, and I don't think it's coinicidence; it's a well known fact that Pimlico boasts tight turns..

Point Given is the last horse I can remember that overcame that spot. So Funny Cide could be up against it out there.

Peace Rules ran his eyeballs out in the Derby, and still has lingering distance questions..(I'm not sold that he has limitations, but I'm still not 100% they aren't there, either)..

If he happened to be a good price on Saturday he would be my play, but he won't be...

So this race is no cinch for either horse..

On paper they are way better than anything in this field, but I will probably separate them in exactas.

Kind of like Peace Rules over long shots, long shots over Peace Rules....

Everyone and their brother will be boxing Funny Cide and Peace Rules.

I'm not trying to change your mind, I hate when I talk myself out of a winning ticket...

But if they run 1-2 and you don't box them how upset with yourself could you possibly be?

SLEW

 

[djv]

It has that look of a no fun race. Then after words we may all say dam that was good. Im thinking just some place money on Scrimshaw or Senor Swinger. At least you will get some odds that pay alittle something. I dont know why but I think Funny Cide is coming in 2nd or 3rd. But I have a hard time in seeing whos gong to FC. Peace Rule leaves me guessing to. May be it's a better baseball day. Na that an't no fun. Got toi have a couple bucks on some body.

 

[BADTODABONE]

Quin
1zw/9.................10
1zw/7.................10
1zw/5.................10
1zw/3.................10
1z/WPS...............20

"JUST WIN, BABY!!!!