2-3 last night as I knew I should have bought 14.5 pts on Indiana State to get +28.5! Still 17-11 over the last 7 days.
Day off from the real job today, so got some time to do full writeups........................
1)Butler(+14.5)
Suicide? No, I don't think so. Sure Duke is a great side and are playing at home, but this Butler squad is a solid basketball team.
Butler is 7-1 ATS on the road, while Duke is 4-5-1 ATS at home. Can you say inflated lines? Butler is better from the free throw line while Duke is better on the boards. Field goal percentages at both the offensive end and the defensive end are almost identical. Call the stats a saw-off.
Butler's defence is only giving up an average of 60 pts/gm.....a key number when they are a 14.5 point underdog. When we look at only their road games, the number changes only minimally to 61.1.
Yes, Duke can score, but their defence has been giving up truckloads of pts lately.........an average of 82.8 pts/gm against over the last 4......again a key number when the line is a whopping 14.5. Yes, I know that these numbers reflect strengths of conferences, but the bottom line is that defence is always the key in any sport.
Butler has 4 players averaging 10+ pts/gm, so they will not be relying on just one player in this hostile environment tonight. And they can shoot the 3's pretty well...........Miller hits at 43.9% and Archey hits at 44.2%.
Duke's defence is a pressure D that keys on turnovers. Although I don't expect the same outcome tonight, Butler committed only 3 turnovers last time out. They are quite capable of holding onto the ball.
This is a Nationally televised game, with a national, perennial powerhouse playing at home, so this line, in my opinion, is inflated, especially when you consider that Duke has actually lost 2 of their last 3.
I'll take the very generous 14.5 points here.
More to come.............
Day off from the real job today, so got some time to do full writeups........................
1)Butler(+14.5)
Suicide? No, I don't think so. Sure Duke is a great side and are playing at home, but this Butler squad is a solid basketball team.
Butler is 7-1 ATS on the road, while Duke is 4-5-1 ATS at home. Can you say inflated lines? Butler is better from the free throw line while Duke is better on the boards. Field goal percentages at both the offensive end and the defensive end are almost identical. Call the stats a saw-off.
Butler's defence is only giving up an average of 60 pts/gm.....a key number when they are a 14.5 point underdog. When we look at only their road games, the number changes only minimally to 61.1.
Yes, Duke can score, but their defence has been giving up truckloads of pts lately.........an average of 82.8 pts/gm against over the last 4......again a key number when the line is a whopping 14.5. Yes, I know that these numbers reflect strengths of conferences, but the bottom line is that defence is always the key in any sport.
Butler has 4 players averaging 10+ pts/gm, so they will not be relying on just one player in this hostile environment tonight. And they can shoot the 3's pretty well...........Miller hits at 43.9% and Archey hits at 44.2%.
Duke's defence is a pressure D that keys on turnovers. Although I don't expect the same outcome tonight, Butler committed only 3 turnovers last time out. They are quite capable of holding onto the ball.
This is a Nationally televised game, with a national, perennial powerhouse playing at home, so this line, in my opinion, is inflated, especially when you consider that Duke has actually lost 2 of their last 3.
I'll take the very generous 14.5 points here.
More to come.............
