a market update and some trades, good and bad

selkirk

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Jul 16, 1999
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Canada
best wishes on the holdidays, thanksgiving is big in cnd. but believe even bigger in the US.

however both the US and cdn. market were in full rally mode.

when the US govt. stepped in to buy preferreds that signal to the market that C would not go to zero and the US govt. would backstop the bank.

now long term this actually limits their upside but at the prices c was trading at it was just an option on wether the bank would survive.

if it went to zero others banks/financials would be hit next ie. bank of america and morgan.

also there was some bad news on the economic front in the US however the market shrugged it off and went higher and very bullish sign.

I sold off some stocks after the HP news, and some it worked and others not so much in cdn.
since last post on HP
sold CNQ $44.25 cdn. hit low of 34.19 and rally within a week, bought back 42.50. would have sooner but was surprised of the rally.

BMO 40.25sold went to 29.10, then rallied to 38. bought back half at 36, waiting.

MFC 22.50 cdn. bought back at 20.75 hit low of 16.28

the one dumb trade sold half my position of SLF at 19.50 and now at 27.50 hit a low of 19.38. did sell a 18 put for dec. to help ease the pain. still a dumb trade.

the cdn. financials went down on bad news from BNS, and TD, though as pointed before these stocks still made money for the quarter.

they were trade at cheap valuations, however was surpised at both how quickly they dropped and came back,

take bns was trading in the high 30s, cdn. 36-38, then in a few days, went to a low of 28.33, only to recover in a week to close at 37.

my cash positon is at 25%, and believe we woud have a snap back rally instead and couple of weeks, a brutal sell off.

so now believe we could have a year end, relief rally. and then the market will trade sideways, in terms of returns.

talked to a friend and he simply stated a traders market, he is correct. on friday toronto rallied over 500 points and 13.7% on the week.

in one day BNS +13%, BMO 7.2%, MFC 18.4%, slf 14. 9%, and ECA 6.2% could go on...

anyways not a bad idea to set tights stops and sometimes after a good run, take a little off the table, these stocks can easily track down in the other direction.

in the long term focus on banks with a retail focus.
and have a little gold because if we do recovery we will learn about something called inflation.

yri is my gold holding
Good news wrote two calls (one expired and a dec $9 cdn.) for a total of $2 in cash.

bad news
counting the div still down 1.50 (close 7.48cdn.
still cheap stock hit low of 4.29, maybe copper price low pushed it down, by product, however trading close to NAV and will have growng production until 2012.

is seen as a takeover, still maybe barrick or newmont, or goldcorp better, will stick with yri and selling covered calls, should work out...
barrick do not like hedge book, though well run, and newmont do not like valuation, though it has come down.

thanks
selkirk
 
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