Hey guys-
This is a month's summary done very quickly but quite revealing. Im very interested in anyone's comments as to the reasons, justifications, and arguments for these numbers. I think the reasoning is quite clear, and I will add my comments below the data....My goal was to find some blind correlations between Dogs/ and overs or favs and unders, or anything in between. It turned out to not be quite so simple, it seems the correlation evaluation is much more intuitive, meaning, the tempo's of the temas involved must fit.
Anyway, this the data from Feb24th to Present.
***I only counted games that had a posted total, this data only reflects games that carried a bettable total, so many games are absent, pks, 1s, and majority of 1 1/2's where not counted, for obvious reasons.
________________________________
Total data since Feb 24th=
FAVORITES=132
UNDERDOGS=120
OVERS=128
UNDERs=124
___________________________________
CORRELATioNS=
FAVORITES/OVER=64
(meaning favorite and over covered in game)
FAVORITES/UNDER=68
DOGS/OVER=64
DOGS/UNDER=56
________________________________________
As you can tell from the data above, you will find no blind angle here, as well as little correlation between side and total. So I broke them down into categories acording to spread.
_______________________
Category 1:
SPREAD=(1 1/2 to 4 1/2)
Favorites=40
Dogs=49
Overs=42
Unders=47
fav/over=18
fav/under=22
dog/over=24
dog/under=25
In this category, little is learned except that the Dogs are more likely to cover than favorites. I think this is explained by the line. The line carries the opinion that the game will more than likely be close, and a close game favors the dog. We also can notice that the Under is slightly more likely in this category, this is also explainable by the line, indicating a tight game, and in a tight game, you usually have a tightness in the last few minutes, little fouling, and sound clock management. All these lean to the under.
_______________________________
Category 2:
SPREAD=(5 to 8 1/2)
Favorites=43
Dogs=39
Overs=46
Unders=36
fav/over=23
fav/under=20
dog/over=23
dog/under=16
In this category, the most noticable thing is that the OVER is a very good bet. This can be explained once again by the numbers. Games with a spread expectation of this level, tend to produce a good amount of points in the latter stages of the game. If a team is up by 5-9 with 1:30 left, fouling is usually employed, pushing the average number of points scored in the last two minutes..UP, and making the OVER more likely. The other interesting thing here is that a BAD BET would be the DOG/UNDER parlay, which makes absolute sense here. Rarely will a dog cover this line, without the game going OVER, the reasoning is simple. IF the dog is in a position to cover, it will be fouling at the end, pushing the game over. LIkewise, if the Dog is out of the game, meaning down by 9 or more, there is little reason to foul here.
______________________________
Category 3:
SPREAD=(9 to 12 1/2)
favorites=28
Dogs=17
Overs=24
UNDERs=23
I left out the parlay combos because they where dead even, no correlation. But, here we see a heavy advantage for the favorite, I suppose my only justification for this is the fact that the spread predicts a sizable victory for the favorite, and afterwall, whats the difference between Down 10 or 11, and down 16 or 17, the game is out of hand in either case, and the spread seems to indicate that two differnt levels of teams are playing each other. Maybe somone else can explain this one. Once again here, the Dog/UNDER parlay is a bad bet....for reasons stated above....that combination only came in 17.7% of the times (should be 25%)
_________________________________
Category 4:
SPREAD=12 1/2 and UP
favs=21
dogs=15
overs=18
unders=18
Once again, the favoites have a sizable advantage...."blow out city", "differnent levels of talent", I dont know....
___________________________________
Hope this helps you guys, I use this type of stuff all the time. Looking for your insights.
Iron.
This is a month's summary done very quickly but quite revealing. Im very interested in anyone's comments as to the reasons, justifications, and arguments for these numbers. I think the reasoning is quite clear, and I will add my comments below the data....My goal was to find some blind correlations between Dogs/ and overs or favs and unders, or anything in between. It turned out to not be quite so simple, it seems the correlation evaluation is much more intuitive, meaning, the tempo's of the temas involved must fit.
Anyway, this the data from Feb24th to Present.
***I only counted games that had a posted total, this data only reflects games that carried a bettable total, so many games are absent, pks, 1s, and majority of 1 1/2's where not counted, for obvious reasons.
________________________________
Total data since Feb 24th=
FAVORITES=132
UNDERDOGS=120
OVERS=128
UNDERs=124
___________________________________
CORRELATioNS=
FAVORITES/OVER=64
(meaning favorite and over covered in game)
FAVORITES/UNDER=68
DOGS/OVER=64
DOGS/UNDER=56
________________________________________
As you can tell from the data above, you will find no blind angle here, as well as little correlation between side and total. So I broke them down into categories acording to spread.
_______________________
Category 1:
SPREAD=(1 1/2 to 4 1/2)
Favorites=40
Dogs=49
Overs=42
Unders=47
fav/over=18
fav/under=22
dog/over=24
dog/under=25
In this category, little is learned except that the Dogs are more likely to cover than favorites. I think this is explained by the line. The line carries the opinion that the game will more than likely be close, and a close game favors the dog. We also can notice that the Under is slightly more likely in this category, this is also explainable by the line, indicating a tight game, and in a tight game, you usually have a tightness in the last few minutes, little fouling, and sound clock management. All these lean to the under.
_______________________________
Category 2:
SPREAD=(5 to 8 1/2)
Favorites=43
Dogs=39
Overs=46
Unders=36
fav/over=23
fav/under=20
dog/over=23
dog/under=16
In this category, the most noticable thing is that the OVER is a very good bet. This can be explained once again by the numbers. Games with a spread expectation of this level, tend to produce a good amount of points in the latter stages of the game. If a team is up by 5-9 with 1:30 left, fouling is usually employed, pushing the average number of points scored in the last two minutes..UP, and making the OVER more likely. The other interesting thing here is that a BAD BET would be the DOG/UNDER parlay, which makes absolute sense here. Rarely will a dog cover this line, without the game going OVER, the reasoning is simple. IF the dog is in a position to cover, it will be fouling at the end, pushing the game over. LIkewise, if the Dog is out of the game, meaning down by 9 or more, there is little reason to foul here.
______________________________
Category 3:
SPREAD=(9 to 12 1/2)
favorites=28
Dogs=17
Overs=24
UNDERs=23
I left out the parlay combos because they where dead even, no correlation. But, here we see a heavy advantage for the favorite, I suppose my only justification for this is the fact that the spread predicts a sizable victory for the favorite, and afterwall, whats the difference between Down 10 or 11, and down 16 or 17, the game is out of hand in either case, and the spread seems to indicate that two differnt levels of teams are playing each other. Maybe somone else can explain this one. Once again here, the Dog/UNDER parlay is a bad bet....for reasons stated above....that combination only came in 17.7% of the times (should be 25%)
_________________________________
Category 4:
SPREAD=12 1/2 and UP
favs=21
dogs=15
overs=18
unders=18
Once again, the favoites have a sizable advantage...."blow out city", "differnent levels of talent", I dont know....
___________________________________
Hope this helps you guys, I use this type of stuff all the time. Looking for your insights.
Iron.
