a outlook from a cdn. hedge fund

[selkirk]

these are some of the views of Salida Capital a money manager in cdn. they have averaged 35% over three years, though this year they are down around 23%. volatile. still they have some people running the funds/great experience.

do not own the fund, glad this year though they did great before....here are there views, or future outlook.

thanks
selkirk

Salida Capital Commentary For July 2008

1The housing crisis in the US is deflationary
2 It will be met with unparalleled monetary and fiscal stimulus
3 The end result will be another round of reflation
4 This will eventually lead to an even more inflationary environment
5 Supply constraints on most commodities will keep long-term prices higher than consensus estimates
6 Hard assets wil eventually get a re-rating as their earnings power relative to the overall market is recognized and as investors buy them as an inflation hedge.

 

[dawgball]

I never could understand Canadian!

Are they saying that they feel the US economy will go up from here?

 

[selkirk]

good question dawgball, believe we are in phase two,

2.It will be met with unparalleled monetary and fiscal stimulus

that does not mean the economy will go up however it could not go in a deep ecoonomic downward spiral.... or it would effect demand for resources...and 3-6.

however the economy could show little or no growth....however if there was a sharp decline the rest of the predictions would be wrong.

one smart item about these estimates is will take years to go through, so if they are wrong how many remember...however it does show they pro resource bias....their main fund did over 50% annually for three years, until this year, they are down around 30%.

thanks
selkirk

 

[dawgball]

I have been saying that the end of the Olympics would be the real start of the US economic turn-around for about 6-12 months now. I don't think it will be a blazer of a recovery, but it will be a continued upstream from here, in my opinion.

I think we may take a slight hiccup if/when Obama is elected, but in the end our economy is too strong to be let politics get in the way.

The only thing that is a real threat to the US economy for the long term is the continuing upward trend of the American public's dependency on credit. But I'm not smart enough to figure that one out.