abu dhabi championship
- Thread starter Let's Have Fun
- Start date
Round 1 play (4pts):
Sergio Garcia to beat Rory McIlroy +110 @ Bet365 [also available @ William Hill]
I'll take these odds on Sergio. He finished 2013 in great form, finishing 4th, 2nd and 1st in November-December. He has also finished in the top-15 in all five previous appearances in this event. McIlroy did win the Australian Open, but was 13 shots off the pace in his last event of 2013 (Northwestern Mutual World Challenge) and he doesn't yet have the consistency that Garcia has shown. Finally, Garcia led McIlroy 8-5-1 h2h in 2013, including each of their last three common events when McIlroy's form had improved at the start of the year. As such, I would price Garcia at pick'em at worst.
[unofficial rd1 system plays: Donaldson tb Mickelson +100; Hanson tb Wiesberger -111; Fichardt tb Huizing -120]
Sergio Garcia to beat Rory McIlroy +110 @ Bet365 [also available @ William Hill]
I'll take these odds on Sergio. He finished 2013 in great form, finishing 4th, 2nd and 1st in November-December. He has also finished in the top-15 in all five previous appearances in this event. McIlroy did win the Australian Open, but was 13 shots off the pace in his last event of 2013 (Northwestern Mutual World Challenge) and he doesn't yet have the consistency that Garcia has shown. Finally, Garcia led McIlroy 8-5-1 h2h in 2013, including each of their last three common events when McIlroy's form had improved at the start of the year. As such, I would price Garcia at pick'em at worst.
[unofficial rd1 system plays: Donaldson tb Mickelson +100; Hanson tb Wiesberger -111; Fichardt tb Huizing -120]
Outrights:
Here's a video from Abu Dhabi taken just a few yards off the fairway, and the video has definitely influenced the structuring of my plays this week in terms of who is on my team and the order in which my selections are listed:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=562199870543630&set=vb.416810428415909&type=2&theater
Joost Luiten(25/1) e.w.
- - Before the video I was likely going to opt for taking Branden Grace as a lower echelon selection over Joost Luiten, and was also going to include Martin Kaymer on my team, but now Kaymer is out (and instead I'd look toward Sergio or Stenson if I was inclined to grab any names among the favorites), and Luiten with his driving stats not only bumps Grace, but becomes a top echelon selection.
Ross Fisher(50/1) e.w.
- - IMO Fisher's 2013 campaign had lots of positive signs but very few tangible rewards on the PGA Tour segment, but thereafter was showing signs of breaking through upon a return to his European Tour roots. I guess I suspect Fisher is extremely focused on attaining some significant accomplishments in the Ryder Cup season of 2014, and he was safely ensconced on my team for this week before the video, but now he moves up a couple of notches because driving has been a strength of his game during stretches when he has struggled in other departments, as well as a strength when he was at his best not so many years ago.
Padraig Harrington(60/1) e.w.
- - He showed me the positive signs I was hoping to see last week, so until he shows me negative signs that are equally compelling, Padraig has earned a spot among my selections at these prices.
Thorbjorn Olesen(60/1) e.w.
- - To start the season in the desert, he fits on my team both before and after the video.
Morten Orum Madsen(125/1) e.w.
- - A play which passed muster with me when I heard his name suggested by a capper with better sources, research and history than me.
Ricardo Santos(150/1) e.w.
- - This was a hunch that was apparently on someone else's radar as well, so that was enough for me to take the plunge and go after a glimmer of opportunity, although he now seems a far fetched outsider on the basis of his driving stats.
Alvaro Quiros(80/1) e.w.
- - Unlike Branden Grace who I let go, and Chris Wood and David Howell who were merely under consideration, I kept Quiros on board even after the video.
GL
Here's a video from Abu Dhabi taken just a few yards off the fairway, and the video has definitely influenced the structuring of my plays this week in terms of who is on my team and the order in which my selections are listed:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=562199870543630&set=vb.416810428415909&type=2&theater
Joost Luiten(25/1) e.w.
- - Before the video I was likely going to opt for taking Branden Grace as a lower echelon selection over Joost Luiten, and was also going to include Martin Kaymer on my team, but now Kaymer is out (and instead I'd look toward Sergio or Stenson if I was inclined to grab any names among the favorites), and Luiten with his driving stats not only bumps Grace, but becomes a top echelon selection.
Ross Fisher(50/1) e.w.
- - IMO Fisher's 2013 campaign had lots of positive signs but very few tangible rewards on the PGA Tour segment, but thereafter was showing signs of breaking through upon a return to his European Tour roots. I guess I suspect Fisher is extremely focused on attaining some significant accomplishments in the Ryder Cup season of 2014, and he was safely ensconced on my team for this week before the video, but now he moves up a couple of notches because driving has been a strength of his game during stretches when he has struggled in other departments, as well as a strength when he was at his best not so many years ago.
Padraig Harrington(60/1) e.w.
- - He showed me the positive signs I was hoping to see last week, so until he shows me negative signs that are equally compelling, Padraig has earned a spot among my selections at these prices.
Thorbjorn Olesen(60/1) e.w.
- - To start the season in the desert, he fits on my team both before and after the video.
Morten Orum Madsen(125/1) e.w.
- - A play which passed muster with me when I heard his name suggested by a capper with better sources, research and history than me.
Ricardo Santos(150/1) e.w.
- - This was a hunch that was apparently on someone else's radar as well, so that was enough for me to take the plunge and go after a glimmer of opportunity, although he now seems a far fetched outsider on the basis of his driving stats.
Alvaro Quiros(80/1) e.w.
- - Unlike Branden Grace who I let go, and Chris Wood and David Howell who were merely under consideration, I kept Quiros on board even after the video.
GL
Round 2 play (2pts):
Marcel Siem to beat George Coetzee +100 @ Bet365
Coetzee has a very good record on this course - top-10 finishes in each of the last two years - but it has been over 11 months since his last top-10 finish and he missed his last two cuts in South Africa in December. Siem was in contention for most of last week before finishing 15th and responded to a double-bogey on the 9th hole to being four-under-par on the back nine and only two shots off the lead. In this form and confidence, I'll back the German at plus odds against a player who has a strong dose of contention rust.
[unofficial rd2 system plays: Garcia tb Kaymer +135; Hanson tb Casey +105]
Marcel Siem to beat George Coetzee +100 @ Bet365
Coetzee has a very good record on this course - top-10 finishes in each of the last two years - but it has been over 11 months since his last top-10 finish and he missed his last two cuts in South Africa in December. Siem was in contention for most of last week before finishing 15th and responded to a double-bogey on the 9th hole to being four-under-par on the back nine and only two shots off the lead. In this form and confidence, I'll back the German at plus odds against a player who has a strong dose of contention rust.
[unofficial rd2 system plays: Garcia tb Kaymer +135; Hanson tb Casey +105]
Round 3 play (2pts):
Sergio Garcia to beat Phil Mickelson -125 @ Bet365
It was quite a performance today from Garcia. Not only did he improve on yesterday's score by eight shots to make the cut on the mark, he did so after being interviewed by John Paramor regarding a TV viewer who had reported him for 'tapping down a spike mark' in the first round. As the TV coverage had not shown that he had just repaired a pitch mark which he was seen to tap down, he was exonerated, but it was still very impressive to play as well as he did given the controversy. I think that he will carry over teh same determination to tomorrow's round and carry on the form that has netted him finishes of 4th, 2nd and 1st in his last three starts. Mickelson hasn't played for eleven weeks and has looked far from his best this week; he may find it difficult to improve on his current 43rd place position.
[unofficial rd3 system plays: Garcia tb Wood -138; Quiros tb Fisher, O -120; Donald tb Carlsson -138; Campillo tb De La Riva -110]
Sergio Garcia to beat Phil Mickelson -125 @ Bet365
It was quite a performance today from Garcia. Not only did he improve on yesterday's score by eight shots to make the cut on the mark, he did so after being interviewed by John Paramor regarding a TV viewer who had reported him for 'tapping down a spike mark' in the first round. As the TV coverage had not shown that he had just repaired a pitch mark which he was seen to tap down, he was exonerated, but it was still very impressive to play as well as he did given the controversy. I think that he will carry over teh same determination to tomorrow's round and carry on the form that has netted him finishes of 4th, 2nd and 1st in his last three starts. Mickelson hasn't played for eleven weeks and has looked far from his best this week; he may find it difficult to improve on his current 43rd place position.
[unofficial rd3 system plays: Garcia tb Wood -138; Quiros tb Fisher, O -120; Donald tb Carlsson -138; Campillo tb De La Riva -110]
Round 4 play (4pts):
Thongchai Jaidee to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez -105 @ Bet365
Two players within four shots of the lead, but I'll side with Jaidee in this position. He has a better record on this course - five top-15 finishes here to Jimenez's three - and he has played much better tee-to-green than the Spaniard: he ranks 5th in greens in regulation so far this week; Jimenez is 50th. That is merely a continuation of the form that the Thai showed in December with three top-10 finishes.
[unofficial rd4 system play: Kapur tb Waring -110]
Thongchai Jaidee to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez -105 @ Bet365
Two players within four shots of the lead, but I'll side with Jaidee in this position. He has a better record on this course - five top-15 finishes here to Jimenez's three - and he has played much better tee-to-green than the Spaniard: he ranks 5th in greens in regulation so far this week; Jimenez is 50th. That is merely a continuation of the form that the Thai showed in December with three top-10 finishes.
[unofficial rd4 system play: Kapur tb Waring -110]
4th Round Match-Ups
J. Donaldson beat P. Casey -120
R. Gonzalez beat A. Quiros +110
S. Gallacher beat T. Fleetwood +105
G. Coetzee beat J. Luiten +115
P. Hanson beat T. Bjorn +105
M.A. Jimenez beat R. McIlroy +155
C. Lee beat P. Mickelson +190
H. Otto beat M. Kaymer +160
J. Donaldson beat P. Casey -120
R. Gonzalez beat A. Quiros +110
S. Gallacher beat T. Fleetwood +105
G. Coetzee beat J. Luiten +115
P. Hanson beat T. Bjorn +105
M.A. Jimenez beat R. McIlroy +155
C. Lee beat P. Mickelson +190
H. Otto beat M. Kaymer +160
