Abu Dhabi Golf Championship

[Stanley]

Round 1 play (2pts):

Peter Hanson to beat Branden Grace -120 @ Bet365
Opposing Grace who has won in each of the last two weeks. He admitted to being very tired after his first win, but playing in front of his home crowd and on a course he played when growing up, he clearly found the energy to win again. But now, not only will be (at least) twice as tired, but he is now playing in a different continent and on a course on which he has never played. This may be Hanson's first start of the year, but he has a good record on this course - 2nd, 10th and 11th in three of the last five years - and he hasn't missed a cut for over six months with just two finishes outside the top-25 over that period. He would be a good player to back in any matchup, so should prevail against such a tired player.

[unofficial rd1 system play: Luiten tb Van Zyl -111]

 

[sports student]

1st round at 5 Dimes:

Horsey -120 over Clarke


In similar time frame, last 4 tourneys Horsey 1st round worst is 69, Clarke best is 73.

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Tiger Woods(9/1) e.w.
Padraig Harrington(45/1) e.w.
Ross Fisher(125/1) e.w.
David Howell(400/1) e.w.
Alvaro Quiros(33/1) e.w.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 play (2pts):

K.J. Choi to beat Robert Karlsson +110 @ SkyBet [also available @ Boyle Sports]
Opposing the first-round leader who does not have a very good history in this position. Despite being ranked in the World Top-30, he has held the first round lead just four times in the last eight seasons: in the 2005 Open de Madrid he then shot 76 to lie 52nd after rd2; in the 2008 PGA Championship he then shot 77 to lie 26th after rd2; in the 2010 Portugal Masters he then shot 71 to lie 5th after rd2; and in the 2010 Dubai World Championship he then shot 75 to lie 12th after rd2. Given that he only hit 5 of 14 fairways and 11 of 18 greens in regulation, his game does not appear good enough to maintain his current position. No such problems with Choi's game: he missed only one green in regulation all day. However, he will need to putt much better ... taking 38 putts in a round is poor for an amateur. He is still inside the top-20 and a purely average round with the short stick tomorrow should see a big improvement in his score.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Molinari F tb Karlsson +120; Lewis tb Hoey +100; Colsaerts tb Karlsson +125; Donaldson tb Fraser +100]

 

[orient]

R2

Hoey to beat Lewis +100
Donaldson to beat Green -115
Molinari E tb Olazabal -110

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Paul Lawrie to beat Robert Rock +110 @ Boyle Sports [also available @ SkyBet]
Two players in good form, but Rock has never previously played well on this course. Whereas Lawrie has finished in the top-30 in four of the last five years, Rock's best finish in four previous attempts in 47th. Lawrie has started the weekend in the top-5 twice in the last two months: he then shot 66-67 to finish 2nd in the Dubai World Championship, but last week he then shot 74-74 to finish 10th in the Volvo Golf Champions. I don't see him repeating the difficulties of last week.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Lynn tb Bjorn +120; Edfors tb Donaldson +110; Jimenez tb Luiten +100]

 

[sports student]

3rd round at 5 dimes:

McIlroy -115 over Woods

 

[TLankford]

Tiger +121 to win the tourney

I'll take it

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Thorbjorn Olesen to beat Jean-Baptiste Gonnet -120 @ Stan James
Olesen couldn't hold onto the post-rd2 lead today, but he didn't embarrass himself either. It was never going to be easy with Major Champions: Graeme McDowell, Charl Schwartzel, Padraig Harrington, Tiger Woods and Paul Lawrie, plus Sergio Garcia in five groups in front of him, but he still shot an under-par round. I don't expect him to win, but he should stick around the top-10 unlike Gonnet who is only 3-for-9 in terms of staying in the top-10 in the final round on the European Tour.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Karlsson tb Harrington +100; Bjorn tb Coetzee -111]

 

[lostinamerica]

Sunday:

Westwood(-105) over Garcia

GL

 

[sports student]

round 4 at 5 dimes:

McIlroy +207 over Molinari/Lawrie

these bets are found in the futures section, did not know they existed until today. Dead heat rules apply. Big difference in odds, at SIA McIlroy is even money in same matchup.