ACC-Big Ten Challenge

[Toledo Prophet]

Well, its that time of year again......time for the annual but whipping of the Big 10 courtesy of the ACC......While I am a booster of the Big 10, I am not delusional about it......they never win this thing.....but for us here, it is not about winning on the scoreboard, but against the point spread.

So, anyway, here are the mathups this year.....any thoughts or ideas on any of these games....possible lines....any games on the list that you're looking forward to watching......individual player head to head.....whatever, lets discuss......this is more to help kill the next few days at work....already dreading being in the office after a nice, fun four day weekend.....it would nice to have something to talk about throughout the day to take my mind of it. :mj07:

Monday
Wake at Iowa, 7 Espn
Early line is WF -2.

Tuesday
GTech at IU, 7 Espn
Nwest at UVA, 7 espn U
Minny-FSU, 730, espn2
Wisco-Duke, 9 espn
PU-Clem, 930 espn 2

Wednesday
BC-Mich, 7 espnU
NCST-MSU, 7 espn
Illini-Mary, 730 espn2
UNC-OSU, 9 espn
VTech-Penn St, 930, epsn2

Any thoughts on what the lines may be, or who you would lean to?

Straight up, I see only games where I expect the Big 10 team to win....IU over GT and MSU over NCSt.....really not sure where they'll get other W's....maybe tomorrow w/ the Hawks, who are no great shakes, but neither is Wake....UM could win, but did not look good in Alaska....OSU is at home, but the way they played vs TAMU on Friday, i am dubious even if Lawson is out....I think Illinois could win in Maryland....Wisco would have a shot if the game were in the Kohl Center. In Cameron, i feel like they get rolled. They wont be able to keep up....PU-Clem intrigues me as each are a darkhorse contender in their league races......Boilers will sneak up on people, but Clemson remembers missing out on the tourney last year and will be gunning for a big win.

It looks bad for the Big 10, but are they really gonna get blown out 9-2? :shrug:

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

Can't wait for my Tar Heels to take on my 2nd rooted evil team, tOSU...gonna be great.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Can the Bucks hang? Wonder what the status of Lawson will be.....thats the news I'm waiting to hear.

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

Well, he didn't play any and he got to rest it, so that has to be good SOME. He'll also have almost 4 hole days to recover.

 

[bjfinste]

The Badgers should be able to hang with Duke in the half-court set as they have a couple talented experienced defenders on the perimeter and a ton of size down low. However, the transition game will be a huge edge for Duke. And when the Badgers have one of those 2-3 minute stretches where they don't score and miss six shots, and the Cameron crowd gets rocking... it could get ugly.

 

[Mr. Poon]

anyone have detailed ATS stats for the conferences or teams in this challenge? Not sure they would be relied on solely for a bet decision, but I would be curious what some of the teams' records were.

 

[Old School]

rest assured some of the gym rats here can find that info..

 

[GreyStreet]

I like the Badgers ATS against Duke, especially if the line comes out around 9 or 10. If for whatever reason the line is 10+, I would play Wisconsin fairly confidently. The Badgers have everything they need to keep the game close. Duke could easily go on a run where, as a poster mentioned, the Badgers could miss six shots in a row, but Duke has a bad tendency to go on offensive droughts as well, especially in big games.

NC State looked awesome tonight. They have a far superior frontcourt to MSU and if they can contain Nietzel and Morgan, they can win outright. Definitely like them getting a few points.

Indiana shouldn't have a problem covering their spread as long as it's not too big. OSU can't be overlooked if UNC is missing Lawson again. Bobby Frasor is awful compared to Lawson and UNC is simply far worse with Frasor running the point.

The ACC usually dominates this evey year. This year, I like the Big 10's chances much more, especially for our purposes.

 

[tig3rs]

i think duke and maryland will have a tough time.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

I do think Illinois has a great shot at getting a W on the road against Maryland.....but I was pretty impressed with Duke over in hawaii.....I preface that by saying, I was impressed with them compared to how they were last year....are they back to being a top-10 team? I do not know, but I had no problem betting against them last year even on their home floor......gotta figure they will have an inflated line in that game vs Wisco......probably favored by double digits.....the question is does Wsico have any offensive answers, can they withstand that stretch where they will struggle for points.....for the first time in years, they take the court without Tucker to bail them out, so it will be intersting to see who answers the scoring bell come crunch time.

Wisconsin is a mystery to me right now, and their game with Duke is maybe the highlight of this challenge because I want to see what the Badgers have to offer.......big fan of Bo Ryan, it'll be interesting to see what he comes up with this year.

 

[tig3rs]

as a duke fan and long-time backer (ouch! last year) i will probably be laying off the game if the line is inflated. i laid off yesterday and they covered somehow, i had em winning by about 24 or 25 they made it 35. they're perfect ATS this year and i hope they keep it up. i hope with the light schedule today vegas will put out tomorrow's lines tonight so i can get on my dukies early if the line's low enough.

 

[tig3rs]

"low enough" i say... if it's duke -7.5 or better i'm on it... any higher i'll probably lay off. they're shooting the ball great, struggled a little from the line yesterday and still covered, i don't think they miss many tomorrow night.

let me correct my "perfect ATS" comment... 4-0-1 :-D, damn marquette! great game, though.

good luck, guys!

 

[Toledo Prophet]

as a duke fan and long-time backer (ouch! last year) i will probably be laying off the game if the line is inflated. i laid off yesterday and they covered somehow, i had em winning by about 24 or 25 they made it 35. they're perfect ATS this year and i hope they keep it up. i hope with the light schedule today vegas will put out tomorrow's lines tonight so i can get on my dukies early if the line's low enough.

Whats the biggest difference in your mind from last year's team to this year's team.....is it just a year of experience and they're hungrier......anyone in particular who has stepped it up from last year...I've been a doubter of Paulus all along, hows he coming along in your opinion....I honestly was surprised they won the Maui title, I pegged them for 1-2 w/ losses to Illinois and Marquette....figured Illinois D would make Duke look like, well, Duke from last year; and Marquette would run right by them.

I did win $$ on marquette, but won by only a point and was lucky Marq did not foul at the end, or Duke would have had free throws to cover the spread.

Wisco will be interesting tomorrow night, but dont they play Davidson on Saturday.......that'll be a fun one.....we'll learn a lot about Duke this week.

 

[tig3rs]

hungrier is exactly how they looked in maui. the way they were flying down the floor, the way demarcus nelson is just makin plays like he owns the floor... scheyer and singler shooting the lights out, (paulus is a little better, but, yeah, i'm a doubter, too, but stay positive and know he's got coach K behind him), i love when zoubek's on the floor, he's really played well.
i think that loss last year in the tourney was a wake up call to all of them a little bit but moreso the off-season under coach K may have been more beneficial this year than any off-season for a while since they were so young and had so many things to learn and spots to improve. coach K brings in players that are willing to work and learn and want to win and are willing to do it the right way, as a team.

i did think the illinois game would be closer because of their D and actually didn't go that big on duke in that game (same w/ marquette) but loved what i saw! the same could go with this wisconsin game. with espn's coverage of the dukies, i'm sure everyone's seen the way that cameron crowd (which is inredible to be a part of, btw) can help a little Duke run turn into a 12-0 run in a matter of seconds with a couple steals and a fast break off of a rebound. if louisville and mich. st are top 10 teams this year, duke definitely is.

oh yeah, and that davidson game is gonna be FUN TO WATCH! neutral site, well, as neutral as you can get outside of davidson's home gym: gonna have the whole student body of davidson, duke's got em by about 3:1 in that category, though, and the rest of the crowd will mostly be dukies.

what you think about the davidson/app state game tonight? i started a thread for it and think davidson should take it home.

 

[tig3rs]

Clemson -10.5 ?!?!
FSU -8.0 ?!?!
Virginia -16.0 ??

I agree with Indiana -12.0 -- not saying it's a play for me yet ( i think it will be ) -- but these 3 lines for the ACC-Big Ten Challenge seem a little high, they're in order of how inflated i think they are.

I take it some transitive statistics is being applied to the Clemson line following that big win over the well-pubbed Gardner-Webb and that quality road win at Mississippi State. I'm not saying Clemson can't cover this number at home, but i don't know how I feel about laying almost a dozen especially since James Mays is not going to be playing.

I don't think Florida State has been consistent enough to be giving 8 points against this Tubby Smith team taht isn't playing badly.

gotta go to work, be back later....

Virginia seems like a no play at -16.0, if it came down a few points I may buy some.

anyone else have some thoughts on these 3 games?

GO DUKE!

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

I'm showing Indiana at -10.5 right now.

Virginia-15
FSU-8
Duke-8.5

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

With that being said, it would be hard to pass on Indiana at -10.5 @ home against a young GT team.

I also would like to look at Duke -8.5. This is a game at home where Duke can overwelm the Badgers and pull out a late 10-12 point victory IMO.

 

[TONYDAHORSE]

Tig3rs,

I don't know Fl State knocked off defending champ FL and had a couple of other nice wins so far. I agree 8 seems a little high, but not that far off. Line should be around 4 1/2 IMO. Watch and see where it goes as the day progresses...:shrug:

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

What's crazy is they lost to Cleveland St.

Cleveland St????

Cleveland St just beat Joh Carroll....a division 3 school by 10pts.

 

[tig3rs]

thanks BUCS. i don't think FSU should be favored by more than 3 here.

i wish i had indiana at -10.5... hopefully some people will take the 10 or 11 points for the Ga Tech name and drop the line a little... but then again, it's against the name INDIANA. :-/ may have to take them at -12... those guys are good.

what are everyone's thoughts on virginia? or northwestern for that matter? they just lost to brown SU.