Once again, I'm second out of the blocks with at least one of my picks
Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)
Luke Donald to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
The key with matchplay events is not simply to identify players who would play well in matchplay conditions, but who have a favourable draw as it only takes four wins to get to the semi-finals and at least a place payout. Donald progressed to the 3rd round and it was his debut, credit is due there. On his return visit, he should perform much better, particularly with such a successful matchplay record in the Walker and Ryder Cup, and he certainly has an inviting draw. Top-seed in the Sam Snead bracket, Retief Goosen, was widely rumoured to be about to pull out of this event, so may struggle to reach the third round (when he would meet Donald) for only the second time. Donald plays Richard Green in the first round and this could easily be his toughest match of this bracket as of the other contenders, Darren Clarke is playing inconsistently, Jim Furyk has never progressed beyond the third round and Monty has never done well in this event. This looks another good opportunity to extend his impressive record in California.
Nick O'Hern to win 80/1 e.w. @ Stan James and Ladbrokes
It was O'Hern who defeated Donald in the third round last year and that was quite a scalp after he had defeated Tiger Woods 3&1 in the second round. O'Hern could have been easily failed to lift his game after the Tiger victory, but instead he thrashed Donald 5&4. Now he comes into this event in even better form with five top-3 finishes in his last seven starts and while he still appears incapable of winning a strokeplay event, the change in format clearly suits him. On paper, he has a tough Ben Hogan bracket with both Ernie Els and Phil Mickelson present, but Els has skipped this event in each of the last two years and has won a total of two matches in four appearances. Mickelson's record is not quite so bad, but as he has yet to win his bracket in six attempts, he is hardly a daunting opponent. Mickelson should progress to the bracket decider as he does have a very easy draw in the lower half of the bracket, but of O'Hern's likely opponents in the top-half, his first round opponent, Fred Funk, is 0-for-5 in this event, his likely second round opponent, Michael Campbell, has also yet to win a match in this event, and his likely third round opponent, Mike Weir, has never progressed beyond the second round. It's all set up for a couple of battles of the lefties and O'Hern is the best matchplayer among them.
Carl Pettersson to win 125/1 e.w. available generally
The Gary Player bracket looks the most open of all with top-seed, Vijay Singh, and fourth seed, Angel Cabrera, also never progressing beyond the second round. The third seed, Kenny Perry, is in poor form and he will be Pettersson's first opponent after which he is likely to play the equally unpredictable and out-of-form, Davis Love. His biggest test is likely to come from Chris DiMarco with Rory Sabbatini surely due to run out of steam or collapse from nervous exhaustion early this week. So for a player who has two top-10 finishes already this season, including 7th place last week, and played particularly well in his previous appearance - he matched Tiger Woods for most the first round before losing 2&1 to the eventual champions - the odds of 125/1 each-way (i.e. 0.75pts at 31.25/1 win his four matches and the bracket) are decent value.
