ADT Champ
- Thread starter DOGS THAT BARK
- Start date
Outright plays (1.5pts):
Grace Park to win 10/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler, UKBetting and Totalbet
Annika Sorenstam is miles ahead in the ratings for this event and should win this with ease, but she has only done so in one of three years that this course has hosted this event. She will be in the frame on Sunday evening, but there is more value in the outright odds with her in the field than in the 'w/o Sorenstam' market. One example is Park who warrants backing each-way at double-digit odds. The second-best player on Tour, who has finished in the top-3 in each of her five previous starts before last week, should gain a top-4 finish at least. It does not harm her chances that she was not in the hunt last week and with a record of top-10 finishes in each of the three years of this event here, this week should see a return to her previous impressive form.
Cristie Kerr to win 20/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and GolfingGods
This is an event in which course form has been extremely important in the last couple of years and the last two selections can also boast impressive form at Trump International. Kerr finished 3rd last year despite an opening 74 and has shown good form recently. Take out her two withdrawals due to a neck injury in September and her last four finishes have been 1st, 8th, 5th and 7th. A repeat performance of that form in this limited-field event should net a return on the play.
Karrie Webb to win 25/1 e.w. @ GolfingGods
It has been a long time since I backed Webb in an outright market, but there are some very healthy signs in her game. Not only has she finished 7th in each of the last two weeks, but she has been ranked 1st in greens in regulation in three of her last four starts (this does not include the events in South Korea and Japan for which there were no event stats available). A winner on this course in 2001, and with finishes of 3rd and 10th since, she is another who could certainly win this event, but if not, has shown enough form recently to suggest that she should capture of the top-4 places for a payout on this play.
Grace Park to win 10/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler, UKBetting and Totalbet
Annika Sorenstam is miles ahead in the ratings for this event and should win this with ease, but she has only done so in one of three years that this course has hosted this event. She will be in the frame on Sunday evening, but there is more value in the outright odds with her in the field than in the 'w/o Sorenstam' market. One example is Park who warrants backing each-way at double-digit odds. The second-best player on Tour, who has finished in the top-3 in each of her five previous starts before last week, should gain a top-4 finish at least. It does not harm her chances that she was not in the hunt last week and with a record of top-10 finishes in each of the three years of this event here, this week should see a return to her previous impressive form.
Cristie Kerr to win 20/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and GolfingGods
This is an event in which course form has been extremely important in the last couple of years and the last two selections can also boast impressive form at Trump International. Kerr finished 3rd last year despite an opening 74 and has shown good form recently. Take out her two withdrawals due to a neck injury in September and her last four finishes have been 1st, 8th, 5th and 7th. A repeat performance of that form in this limited-field event should net a return on the play.
Karrie Webb to win 25/1 e.w. @ GolfingGods
It has been a long time since I backed Webb in an outright market, but there are some very healthy signs in her game. Not only has she finished 7th in each of the last two weeks, but she has been ranked 1st in greens in regulation in three of her last four starts (this does not include the events in South Korea and Japan for which there were no event stats available). A winner on this course in 2001, and with finishes of 3rd and 10th since, she is another who could certainly win this event, but if not, has shown enough form recently to suggest that she should capture of the top-4 places for a payout on this play.
Like the Webb play, but not too keen on Kerr or Park this week.
Kerr was suffering from tendonitis last week and joins a host of players nursing injuries at the end of a long season Also thought Grace was showing signs of fatigue and she still has to battle for the Vare Trophy.
It's the fresher Diaz for me, and I'm very happy with 50/1. Of the others Han and Stupples appeal.
Kerr was suffering from tendonitis last week and joins a host of players nursing injuries at the end of a long season Also thought Grace was showing signs of fatigue and she still has to battle for the Vare Trophy.
It's the fresher Diaz for me, and I'm very happy with 50/1. Of the others Han and Stupples appeal.
Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):
Laura Diaz to beat Christina Kim -110 @ BetInternet
Successfully opposed Kim last week and will do so again. She has lost her form since winning the Longs Drugs Challenge in September and as a result has finished behind Diaz in all their four common events since that win. With no course experience either on a course that demands playing time, Kim should continue to struggle this week. A repeat of last year's top-10 finish looks likely for Diaz.
Rosie Jones to beat Christina Kim -111 @ Centrebet [3pts]
Not quite a swansong, but this will be Jones' final event as a full-time member of the LPGA Tour as she is forced into semi-retirement next year through injury. With finishes of 4th, 5th and 7th in the three years here, there are good indications that she will bow out with a strong finish.
Grace Park to beat Lorena Ochoa -114 @ Centrebet
Finishing outside the top-20 with a best round of 75 last year does not bode well for Ochoa. She finished 14 shots behind Park on that occasion and having finished ahead of Park only once in their last six common events, there should not be such balanced odds. Any repeat of her form before last week and Park will secure a profit in both the outright and matchup markets.
(available widely)
Laura Diaz to beat Christina Kim -110 @ BetInternet
Successfully opposed Kim last week and will do so again. She has lost her form since winning the Longs Drugs Challenge in September and as a result has finished behind Diaz in all their four common events since that win. With no course experience either on a course that demands playing time, Kim should continue to struggle this week. A repeat of last year's top-10 finish looks likely for Diaz.
Rosie Jones to beat Christina Kim -111 @ Centrebet [3pts]
Not quite a swansong, but this will be Jones' final event as a full-time member of the LPGA Tour as she is forced into semi-retirement next year through injury. With finishes of 4th, 5th and 7th in the three years here, there are good indications that she will bow out with a strong finish.
Grace Park to beat Lorena Ochoa -114 @ Centrebet
Finishing outside the top-20 with a best round of 75 last year does not bode well for Ochoa. She finished 14 shots behind Park on that occasion and having finished ahead of Park only once in their last six common events, there should not be such balanced odds. Any repeat of her form before last week and Park will secure a profit in both the outright and matchup markets.
(available widely)
Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 2-1; +5.44pts
Park 15th
Kerr 2nd
Webb 3rd
Great performance by Kerr to match Sorenstam shot-for-shot in the final round, though it probably a great help that she played in the group in front. When she did play alongside her in the playoff, she rather wilted and lost the first hole to a bogey. Not been a good year for the outrights on this Tour, but at least the last month was very profitable.
Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 3-0-0; +6.00pts
Diaz/Kim WON by 13
Jones/Kim WON by 4
Park/Ochoa WON by 2
Another great week with LPGA Tour matchups. Had the same losses on the outrights and big profits on the matchups last year for this Tour ... there is clearly plenty to be researched during the off-season!
LPGA Tour final ytd
Outrights: 17-66; -22.19pts
Matchups: 78-47; +59.94pts
All Tours ytd
Outrights: 97-384; +289.99pts
Matchups: 419-310; +122.58pts
Park 15th
Kerr 2nd
Webb 3rd
Great performance by Kerr to match Sorenstam shot-for-shot in the final round, though it probably a great help that she played in the group in front. When she did play alongside her in the playoff, she rather wilted and lost the first hole to a bogey. Not been a good year for the outrights on this Tour, but at least the last month was very profitable.
Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 3-0-0; +6.00pts
Diaz/Kim WON by 13
Jones/Kim WON by 4
Park/Ochoa WON by 2
Another great week with LPGA Tour matchups. Had the same losses on the outrights and big profits on the matchups last year for this Tour ... there is clearly plenty to be researched during the off-season!
LPGA Tour final ytd
Outrights: 17-66; -22.19pts
Matchups: 78-47; +59.94pts
All Tours ytd
Outrights: 97-384; +289.99pts
Matchups: 419-310; +122.58pts
