ADT Championship

[Stanley]

Outright play (total stake: 1pt)

Paula Creamer to win 16/1 e.w. @ William Hill, Ladbrokes and Tote
Can't get too involved in this market with the chaotic determination of the winner of this event: a cut after two rounds to 16 players; a cut after three rounds to 8 players; and the winner decided by who shoots the lowest score in the final round with the previous scores being annulled. So, basically, the quoted odds are on the winner of a 18-hole shootout given that the player makes the first two cuts. So consistency of play is the first pre-requisite. Creamer has finished each of her last 16 rounds inside the top-8 on the leaderboard, so enough consistency to make the final round shouldn't be a major issue with Creamer. Thereafter, it's a one-round shootout. In that respect, Creamer's h2h record against Annika Sorenstam of 7-7-3 in the first round over the last 12 months is as good as anyone in this field apart from Ochoa (8-7-2) so she can match the best players in a 18-hole shootout. In terms of the usual angles, she has finished 6th in each of her last five events and 6th on her debut on this course last year so 16/1 looks value in difficult market to appraise.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (2pts unless stated)

Cristie Kerr to beat Juli Inkster -120 @ The Greek
Was reluctant to take the 16/1 available on Kerr to win only because she played in the 3-Tour Challenge in Nevada on Tuesday and fatigue may have been an issue, but Inkster also played in that event so it is not a factor for this matchup. In fact, if anything, the younger player should be the one who recovers the better. Both players have been in good form, even if only playing sparsely on Inkster's part, but the primary factor here is course form. Kerr has finished ahead of Inkster in each of the last four years with Inkster's best-ever finish on this course being 9th. That would not be enough to get her to the final round shootout this year (Kerr has finished in the top-3 twice in the last three years).

Jeong Jang to beat Ai Myazato -118 @ Centrebet [4pts]
Huge difference in consistency on the LPGA Tour between these two - Jang has more than twice as many top-10 finishes as Miyazato this year - and in terms of their head-to-head record, Jang leads Miyazato 10-4 this year in events in North America. With the Japanese player also making her debut on this course and Jang finishing in the top-10 in each of the last two years, this should be decided before Sunday.
(also available at The Greek)

Annika Sorenstam to beat Lorena Ochoa +100 @ The Greek [6pts]
This price is clearly based on a 18-hole shootout between Sorenstam and Ochoa on Sunday and while that is likely to be the case, there is a much stronger possibility that Ochoa will be the one who fails to get there. In the five years that this course has hosted this event, Sorenstam has finished 1st three times and 2nd twice; Ochoa has finished 21st, 17th and 26th. That's quite a difference and with the added pressure of going for four consecutive wins on this Tour, Ochoa will surely be the one to struggle out of these two.
(also available at Centrebet, Victor Chandler, Pinnacle and Sporting Odds)

Annika Sorenstam to beat Karrie Webb -145 @ The Greek
Not quite the same difference in course form, but 10th, 3rd and 22nd in the last three years for Webb hardly compares to Sorenstam's record. And in her last start in North America, she finished 13th of 20 players in the Samsung World Championship, so Webb is another who is not certain to reach the last round.

May add more plays in the morning if Five Dimes offer lines.

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 0-1; -1.00pts

Creamer 8th

She did the difficult part well and made both cuts to ensure very good value at these odds, but was the only player to shoot over-par in the 18-hole shootout.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -13.62pts

Kerr/Inkster TIED (Push)
Jang/Miyazato LOST by 4
Sorenstam/Ochoa LOST by 1
Sorenstam/Webb LOST by 6

That sums up this season pretty well!

LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 16-44; +9.08pts
Matchups: 33-37; -38.48pts