Advice needed - Unique Middle

[RDKJ]

I have the chance to capitalize on a unique gamble that is like going to pay off big time. Earlier this year, I purchased ticket futures, which are valid if UConn made it to the Final 4. The future gives the right to purchase lower level tickets at face value for both nights of the Final 4. The tickets are valued near $2,000 each right now on stubhub.com. Hence, there is $24,000 possibly at risk in this situation.

Here is the question - I have 12 ticket futures and I have approximately $1200 invested in them. All I need is UCONN to win against George Mason. If I want to protect my investment should I wager another $1000 on GM staight up at 4-1 odds, or should I lay $2000 with GM + the points. The later would allow we to maybe win both gambles.

Advice?

 

[mack the knife]

Seems like you might want to wager at least 5 X your original investment on GM + 8 to (a) guarantee a profit rather than break even and (b) possibly win both investments for huge payday.

Most risk averse strategy is to wager orignal investment on GM +8 OR to wager about 1/3rd investment on GM moneyline. If we assume moneline is equalivalent ot points, both options have equal value.

Risk seeking is to wager progressively more on either monelyline or points, obviously a ratio of original investment on moneyline.

 

[gman2]

play george mason with the points if you must, but even if the moneyline were 50/1, i wouldnt play george mason.

even though the line is only 8, it would still go down as one of the biggest upsets in tournament history if gmu beat uconn in this game.