Advice Needed

[BigDirty]

Hey guys,

Well, I'm not a regular poster here, but I have been following the forum for the last couple of years. The past 2 years I have only laid sporadic bets on NFL games. In fact, sportsbetting has been put on the back burner in favour of Texas Hold Em. I have decided to take a 6-8 month break from holdem in order to concentrate on the upcoming NFL season. Now, my plan is to "invest" a $5000 bankroll in variious sportsbooks (signing up through MadJacks of course), and concentrate solely on NFL. After the season, I will get back into the poker thing.

Now, in the past I have had serious problems with chasing, tilt, unorganization, and playing too many games.

How should I best approach the upcoming season with my bankroll? Being relatively green in regards to sports betting, I will piggyback the great cappers on here (after doing my own research), and see where it takes me.

Can anyone suggest a possible plan of action regarding my size of bets and how I should approach this... ?

Much appreciated!

BD

 

[bej0101]

go against everyone of my plays and by seasons end you will double or triple your bankroll [ depends how fast i go broke]

 

[bej0101]

bumpp

 

[JCDunkDogs]

There are some very good handicappers on this forum. When it comes to bet size, here is my humble advice:

1) 57% winners is a good season. Forget 65% or higher.

2) The sensible formula for size of bet is:
(Your Edge) / (Your Odds) / 2 = (% Bankroll to Risk). This is called the "Kelly Criterion."

3) To calculate "Kelly," here are the values:
a. Your edge is probably = 5% to 10% (ballpark)
b. Your odds = 10/11
c. Your bet size should probably be 2% to 3%

With "Kelly," you will be risking more as your bankroll grows, and less as it shrinks.

Bottom Line:
To make any significant money, you gotta have a $20,000 bankroll (minimum).