NEW ENGLAND vs. PITTSBURGH
So, is Pittsburgh poised to steamroll any team in its path on the road to New Orleans, or is there a team that can stand in against the tide?
I see it happening both ways. A wiser man than me would simply PASS in this spot, but that's no fun, and this game is for a championship.
The Steelers machine seems to be sound in nearly every department. I expect Pittsburgh to come with their top ranked running game and try to impose their will on the Patriots. From power sets on offense, Pittsburgh is still one of the league leaders in pass plays of over 20 yards. Try to break on top. Defensively, feed off a dominant group of linebackers to attack New England with a confusing array of zone blitzes and come after them with athleticism and fierce pursuit. Pittsburgh thinks QB Tom Brady looks too comfortable back there, and they will set out to change that. Just what they have gotten done all year as well as any team in the league. That's a lot to overcome.
Siding with New England feels like a move that needs justification or explanation. A look at the Patriots has to start with the role of head coach Bill Belichick. No one ever questions his inventive genius in defensive game planning. What has been rare among a fraternity of egotistical and driven NFL coaches has been a conscious change (it must have been percolating last year) in his approach to people. People on the team and people around the team. I'm sure he's probably still a dick. Nonetheless, after being known as abrasive, aloof and condescending, this guy now comes across as engaging, patient and sympathetic. Early in the year Belichick observed he would not have been a good hire as a head coach if he hadn't learned from his stint in Cleveland and taken stock of why he was unsuccessful. Teams are usually a reflection of the head man, and Belichick and the Patriots edge Dick Jauron and the Chicago Bears in my book for being the surprise story of this NFL season.
As several assistant coaches and players for the Steelers have observed, the Belichick style on defense is far removed from the Ravens modus operandi that gives the same look every week and is just sound and tough in what they do. Belichick "watches film and invents a defense for that week," so it's very hard to uncover their tendencies. "They're very sound at what they do for the multitude of things they do. You don't see a lot of people talking and hand-signaling. They're all in synch...He schemes your protection, he schemes your formations and he tries to understand what you're doing and puts his guys in situations where he wins the match-ups." With more regularity than the other guy.
It works about the same in putting in the Patriot's offense, too. I did read earlier in the week that in a break from the norm, Belichick was going to delegate more responsibility to defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel and take a bigger role in preparing the offense. I'm not exactly sure what that means, but I did think it was worth mentioning. I'd like to get a take from old boss Bill Parcells on where that move is coming from.
And the team has responded. What stands out week after week is that the Patriots "have replaced their image as a soft team to one built on guts, hard work and strength in the midst of adversity." Drew Bledsoe has been the poster boy for being a good soldier, and that tells me this team has something worth noticing. Confident and consistent and efficient, with great chemistry, too, is the way I've been calling it. They were almost surprised in treacherous conditions against Oakland, but unlike Baltimore and Tampa and some other playoff teams, this team has just made plays all year.
And last week was just the latest and most dramatic example of raising their game at the moment when the stakes are at the absolute highest. 10 points down in brutal conditions. I may be wrong, but I thought I read that except for the luck of the tuck, QB Brady was 17 for 17 to close the game during the 4th quarter and in overtime, plus diving into the end zone for the only Patriot touchdown of the game. And don't forget stuffing the Raiders on 3rd and inches with no timeouts. It's the same type of plays the Patriots have made all year to account for a huge discrepancy between NFL rankings in yardage (19th on offense and 24th on defense) and points (6th on offense and defense).
In addition to Brady, I'd single out the Patriot's offensive line as the area where their play is dramatically improved. But it's a team thing, much as it is in Pittsburgh, although Pittsburgh looks to have a solid edge in overall talent and game changing playmakers.
So how does New England get it done on Sunday? I'm sure New England appreciates the importance of getting untracked early when on the road in a championship game. I think New England needs enough points to stay within the 10 point spread at halftime, and then the pressure of the moment may start to be felt by the Steelers. Timely stops are needed on defense, and especially in the red zone, to keep the Pittsburgh attack from wearing down the Patriots and piling points on the scoreboard. If Brady can complete something like 17 straight passes last week, there will be opportunities in this game to make plays underneath and down field if Brady continues to value the football. New England found a way to hang against St. Louis, so we are talking about more of the same.
Yeah, but HOW does New England do all that? I'm not exactly sure. Get after QB Kordell Stewart with some extra blitzing off a 3-4 look? Put Stewart in situations where he thinks he has to be the difference? Be energized from a big play early? None of it will probably happen that way. I just sorta like their chances.
I'll mention a couple of other angles before I shut up.
More so than with the NFC finalists, it seems a sticky proposition to know how the AFC finalists will respond after their games of last week. In a christening at Heinz Field, Pittsburgh delivers a huge effort against a huge rival and the defending champ. In a probable farewell at Foxboro, the Patriots rally under brutal conditions, and with the luck of the tuck, win a signature game in the history of the franchise. We have all seen it go both ways, whether waging a war or a Music City Miracle is the best road to a conference championship.
Pittsburgh spent some time this week making Super Bowl travel plans, which I found surprising and misdirected. I don't know if any genius other than Mike Martz would have ever thought of taking that approach with his team.
The pressure in this game is not on the upstart Patriots. It would come as no big surprise here if the past and possible future misadventures of Kris Brown develop as a significant storyline during the game.
Neither team is stacked with playoff veterans for whom their time seems to be written in destiny.
I don't think Coach Cowher has changed. I've seen him play it a liitle too predictable and close to the vest for my tastes, relying too much on his stout defense and punishing rushing attack to bring the game home. Somewhat in that vein, Steeler's teams under Cowher have lost 2 of 3 championship games on home turf, and all 3 were decided in the final moments. That is not good.
I have wagered on and watched games involving both teams with regularity this season, and I have seen about what I expected with regularity. What is obvious to me about the double digit spread is that I have a lot more respect for and confidence in New England than just about everyone else, certainly more than the betting public at large, and probably more than the pros here at MadJacks, too. The line looks about right, and I don't see a lot of value in loading up on this game. (Pitt rolls!) But, I'll take a PASS on a PASS, too. I'm looking for and rooting for a good ballgame, and that's the way I'll be playing this game.
So, is Pittsburgh poised to steamroll any team in its path on the road to New Orleans, or is there a team that can stand in against the tide?
I see it happening both ways. A wiser man than me would simply PASS in this spot, but that's no fun, and this game is for a championship.
The Steelers machine seems to be sound in nearly every department. I expect Pittsburgh to come with their top ranked running game and try to impose their will on the Patriots. From power sets on offense, Pittsburgh is still one of the league leaders in pass plays of over 20 yards. Try to break on top. Defensively, feed off a dominant group of linebackers to attack New England with a confusing array of zone blitzes and come after them with athleticism and fierce pursuit. Pittsburgh thinks QB Tom Brady looks too comfortable back there, and they will set out to change that. Just what they have gotten done all year as well as any team in the league. That's a lot to overcome.
Siding with New England feels like a move that needs justification or explanation. A look at the Patriots has to start with the role of head coach Bill Belichick. No one ever questions his inventive genius in defensive game planning. What has been rare among a fraternity of egotistical and driven NFL coaches has been a conscious change (it must have been percolating last year) in his approach to people. People on the team and people around the team. I'm sure he's probably still a dick. Nonetheless, after being known as abrasive, aloof and condescending, this guy now comes across as engaging, patient and sympathetic. Early in the year Belichick observed he would not have been a good hire as a head coach if he hadn't learned from his stint in Cleveland and taken stock of why he was unsuccessful. Teams are usually a reflection of the head man, and Belichick and the Patriots edge Dick Jauron and the Chicago Bears in my book for being the surprise story of this NFL season.
As several assistant coaches and players for the Steelers have observed, the Belichick style on defense is far removed from the Ravens modus operandi that gives the same look every week and is just sound and tough in what they do. Belichick "watches film and invents a defense for that week," so it's very hard to uncover their tendencies. "They're very sound at what they do for the multitude of things they do. You don't see a lot of people talking and hand-signaling. They're all in synch...He schemes your protection, he schemes your formations and he tries to understand what you're doing and puts his guys in situations where he wins the match-ups." With more regularity than the other guy.
It works about the same in putting in the Patriot's offense, too. I did read earlier in the week that in a break from the norm, Belichick was going to delegate more responsibility to defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel and take a bigger role in preparing the offense. I'm not exactly sure what that means, but I did think it was worth mentioning. I'd like to get a take from old boss Bill Parcells on where that move is coming from.
And the team has responded. What stands out week after week is that the Patriots "have replaced their image as a soft team to one built on guts, hard work and strength in the midst of adversity." Drew Bledsoe has been the poster boy for being a good soldier, and that tells me this team has something worth noticing. Confident and consistent and efficient, with great chemistry, too, is the way I've been calling it. They were almost surprised in treacherous conditions against Oakland, but unlike Baltimore and Tampa and some other playoff teams, this team has just made plays all year.
And last week was just the latest and most dramatic example of raising their game at the moment when the stakes are at the absolute highest. 10 points down in brutal conditions. I may be wrong, but I thought I read that except for the luck of the tuck, QB Brady was 17 for 17 to close the game during the 4th quarter and in overtime, plus diving into the end zone for the only Patriot touchdown of the game. And don't forget stuffing the Raiders on 3rd and inches with no timeouts. It's the same type of plays the Patriots have made all year to account for a huge discrepancy between NFL rankings in yardage (19th on offense and 24th on defense) and points (6th on offense and defense).
In addition to Brady, I'd single out the Patriot's offensive line as the area where their play is dramatically improved. But it's a team thing, much as it is in Pittsburgh, although Pittsburgh looks to have a solid edge in overall talent and game changing playmakers.
So how does New England get it done on Sunday? I'm sure New England appreciates the importance of getting untracked early when on the road in a championship game. I think New England needs enough points to stay within the 10 point spread at halftime, and then the pressure of the moment may start to be felt by the Steelers. Timely stops are needed on defense, and especially in the red zone, to keep the Pittsburgh attack from wearing down the Patriots and piling points on the scoreboard. If Brady can complete something like 17 straight passes last week, there will be opportunities in this game to make plays underneath and down field if Brady continues to value the football. New England found a way to hang against St. Louis, so we are talking about more of the same.
Yeah, but HOW does New England do all that? I'm not exactly sure. Get after QB Kordell Stewart with some extra blitzing off a 3-4 look? Put Stewart in situations where he thinks he has to be the difference? Be energized from a big play early? None of it will probably happen that way. I just sorta like their chances.
I'll mention a couple of other angles before I shut up.
More so than with the NFC finalists, it seems a sticky proposition to know how the AFC finalists will respond after their games of last week. In a christening at Heinz Field, Pittsburgh delivers a huge effort against a huge rival and the defending champ. In a probable farewell at Foxboro, the Patriots rally under brutal conditions, and with the luck of the tuck, win a signature game in the history of the franchise. We have all seen it go both ways, whether waging a war or a Music City Miracle is the best road to a conference championship.
Pittsburgh spent some time this week making Super Bowl travel plans, which I found surprising and misdirected. I don't know if any genius other than Mike Martz would have ever thought of taking that approach with his team.
The pressure in this game is not on the upstart Patriots. It would come as no big surprise here if the past and possible future misadventures of Kris Brown develop as a significant storyline during the game.
Neither team is stacked with playoff veterans for whom their time seems to be written in destiny.
I don't think Coach Cowher has changed. I've seen him play it a liitle too predictable and close to the vest for my tastes, relying too much on his stout defense and punishing rushing attack to bring the game home. Somewhat in that vein, Steeler's teams under Cowher have lost 2 of 3 championship games on home turf, and all 3 were decided in the final moments. That is not good.
I have wagered on and watched games involving both teams with regularity this season, and I have seen about what I expected with regularity. What is obvious to me about the double digit spread is that I have a lot more respect for and confidence in New England than just about everyone else, certainly more than the betting public at large, and probably more than the pros here at MadJacks, too. The line looks about right, and I don't see a lot of value in loading up on this game. (Pitt rolls!) But, I'll take a PASS on a PASS, too. I'm looking for and rooting for a good ballgame, and that's the way I'll be playing this game.
