AFC East Breakdown

[Senor Capper]

It has been a wild offseason for the AFC Eastern Division. Free agent signings, trades and two coaching changes, has brought a lot of attention to this Conference.

Beside the fact that the New England Patriots are coming off their fourth Super Bowl victory in the past 14 years and sixth appearance overall in the big game during that period, the division has had a number of other interesting twists.


The Patriots are dealing with the deflation controversy that has potentially left them without the services of Tom Brady for the first four regular season games. Buffalo Bills coach Doug Marrone opted out of his contract. In the process, Marrone picked up a four million dollar payment because of an unusual clause contained in his contract. The Bills replaced Marrone with former New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan, whose Jets were an unimpressive 4-12 last season.

If that wasn?t enough, the Jets hired their third general manager in the past four years. Add to the mix a very average Miami Dolphins team and who knows how this division will turn out.




1) New England Patriots


The New England Patriots have been the class of the division during the past 12 seasons, winning six straight and 11 of the past 12 division titles. Bill Belichick is one of the best coaches in NFL history. He always seems to find a way to put his team in contention. The Patriots are expected to be without Tom Brady for the first four games of the season but that could change in the coming weeks.

He will be replaced by second-year quarterback, 2014 second round selection Jimmy Garoppolo, who passed for 5,050 yards and 53 touchdowns during his senior season at Eastern Illinois. Belichick has a knack for replace aging veterans that are asking for a lot of money, with serviceable veteran replacements or younger players. The Patriots remain the class of the division and should be able to find a way to win their seventh straight division title. Look for the football genius Belichick to have Garoppolo ready for the first four games of the season.
The run game is in good hands with bulldozing LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray, both of whom averaged more than 4.5 yards a carry last year and didn?t fumble.
On the negative side, the team will sorely miss CB Revis and run-stuffing veteran NT Vince Wilfork.

But the Patriots have thrived before without stout defenders. In their AFC title season of 2011, NE?s unit rated 31 out of 32 teams.



Note: The Patriots gave five foes their most lopsided defeat last season, a league high. Included was a 45-7 postseason wipeout of Indy.




2) Buffalo Bills


The Buffalo Bills were 9-7 in 2014 and have high hopes for the upcoming season. They have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. The Bills were fourth in total team D, third in pass D and eleventh in rushing D last season. They upgraded at the skilled offensive positions with the additions of all-pro running back LeSean McCoy and controversial wide receiver Percy Harvin. The big question remains at quarterback. The Bills reached for E J Manuel with the 16th pick in the 2013 draft. This was a terrible and surprising pick. Manuel struggled with accuracy at the college level and continues to do so at the pro level.

The Bills have brought in veterans Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor to compete for the starting job. Cassel 33, should be an upgrade over last year?s starter Kyle Orton. Taylor spent the first four years of his career with the Ravens as a backup and has thrown just 35 passes during his career. The Bills would be a serious threat if they had a quarterback.
Buffalo?s D was fourth overall in the NFL in 2014 and had three players generating 10-plus sacks. The Bills held Green Bay?s Aaron Rodgers to the worst passer-rating day of his career and Peyton Manning to his lousiest of 2014. With Ryan?s defensive background, there?s no reason to think production will slip as he switches to a 3-4.
But this may not be enough to overcome their deficiency at the quarterback position. That problem will be compounded by a poor offensive line.

The Bills should have enough to contend for second place in the division and a Wild card spot in the playoffs.


Note: The Bills are the only team in the league that catches three foes coming off an extended weekend thanks to playing the previous Thursday. Buffalo has three straight road games, with the finale in KC after a short rest Monday niter against NE.



3) Miami Dolphins


The Miami Dolphins are coming off another average season. They finished third in the conference with an 8-8 record. Starting third year quarterback Ryan Tannehill had a very good season, passing for 4,045 yards with 27 touchdown passes with only 12 interceptions. The Dolphins finished 14th overall in team offense. The D finished 12th overall. They struggled against the run, finishing 24th in that category.
Tannehill will need better help up front, having been sacked 104 times the past two years. At RB, Lamar Miller averaged 5.1 yards on 216 carries, but Miami really needs Larry Csonka back for those third-and-short situations.

The addition of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh should help this unit and ownership is certainly for him to pay dividends considered they invested millions in the All-Pro player. The Dolphins were lucky to pick up former Louisville wide receiver Devante Parker with the 14th overall pick in this year?s draft. Parker should help improve Miami?s 17th ranked passing attack. Miami finished close to the middle of the pack in overall offensive and defensive statistics last season. They will need to improve on both sides of the ball if they hope to compete for a playoff spot.


Note: Miami has a chance to get off to a running start. Four of its first five foes had at least 12 losses, but all four of those matchups are away from home.



4) New York Jets


The New York Jets are coming off a terrible 4-12 season. They fired head coach Rex Ryan and replaced him with former Arizona Cardinals defensive guru Todd Bowles. Mike Maccagnan takes over for John Idzik as general manager. The Jets are a team in disarray. Maccagnan is their third general manager in the past four years. They have brought back cornerbacks Darrelle Revis, after a two-year absence and Antonio Cromartie who played with the Cardinals last season. The Jets released Percy Harvin and acquired all-pro receiver Brandon Marshall from the Bears to replace him. The nine-year veteran has over 100 receptions in five of his nine seasons.

This is a transition year for the Jets. They could be in for a long season because of their weakness at quarterback. New York drafted Gino Smith in the second round of the 2013 draft. Smith was recently ranked last out of 32 starting quarterbacks in a NFL opinion poll of coaches and talent evaluators. Journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick has been brought in to compete for the starting job, although the Jets will probably want to see if Smith can be a starting NFL quarterback. Bryce Petty was drafted in the fourth round and is probably a few years away from being ready to compete for the starting position.
Defensively, beefy DTs Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson will again be pivotal to the team?s success.
The Jets have made some upgrades, but I cannot see them being competitive in a strong AFC conference with Smith as their starting quarterback. Despite having arguably the best secondary in football, expect the Jets to finish last in the AFC East due to the unanswered question mark behind center.


Note: The Jets are 6-0 the past two seasons with a positive turnover differential, but 6-20 otherwise.

 

[Senor Capper]

6 NFL offenses with new coordinators

6 NFL offenses with new coordinators



Dennsion has either coached for the Broncos and/or with Kubiak for the last 20 years ? this is ?no worry about the coaching staff chemistry? type of situation. Much of the offseason media hype comes from the head coaching changes in the NFL, but savvy bettors know coordinator changes are every bit as important.



Here?s the start of a multi-week overview of the new coordinators around the league starting on offense, focusing on how the new coordinators? experience and philosophies are likely to affect their new team?s level of production.


Marc Trestman, Ravens:

Trestman crashed and burned during his short head coaching tenure with the Chicago Bears, unable to turn Jay Cutler into an elite level quarterback. But Trestman?s reputation as a creative play caller and top tier quarterback guru hasn?t been affected by his failures in the Windy City.

Each of Baltimore?s last two offensive coordinators was a former head coach who got another head coaching job ? Jim Caldwell and Gary Kubiak; something Trestman covets. And while Chicago didn?t live up to expectations offensively under Trestman, the Bears still ranked above the league average in points scored while he was there.

Trestman had stints with eight NFL teams prior to Chicago, and spent five seasons in a successful run as head coach for the Montr?al Alouettes of the Canadian Football League. He?s walking into a situation with a highly productive offense and a Super Bowl winning quarterback in Joe Flacco already in place.

Trestman isn?t charged with completely rebuilding this offense ? expect a modified version of the schemes Gary Kubiak was using last year; schemes that produced a Top 5 offense in the AFC in both points scored and yards per play gained in 2014.




Adam Gase, Bears:

Gase is transitioning from calling plays for an offense with Peyton Manning at quarterback to an offense with Jay Cutler behind center. Even with Manning in clear decline, it?s a drop-off, especially in the leadership department.

This is not a situation where a head coach and his coordinator can be expected to clash. Gase will be working under head coach John Fox, just as he did in Denver, so there?s no reason to expect a dramatic change in the Broncos offensive philosophy from recent years.

That strategy in Denver resulted in three wide receiver sets on more than 80% of the team?s pass plays; and there?s ample skill position talent here in Chicago for him to meld. Of course, the Bears? woeful offensive line from 2014 was the antithesis of Denver?s elite unit; although the group as a unit appears much healthier as the start of training camp approaches.




Rick Dennison, Broncos:

Dennsion has either coached for the Broncos and/or with Kubiak for the last 20 years ? this is ?no worry about the coaching staff chemistry? type of situation. He was the quarterback coach under Kubiak in Baltimore last year, paving the way for Joe Flacco?s 91 QB rating.

Kubiak is certainly excited to have his guy coaching the 39-year-old Manning, even after Manning?s dismal late season stretch last year.




Greg Olson, Jaguars:

Blake Bortles gets his second new coordinator in as many seasons and Olson gets his second developmental QB as well, coming over from his stint coaching Derek Carr as a rookie in Oakland last year. This isn?t Olson?s first rodeo ? he?s in his fifth stint as an NFL offensive coordinator since 2004, none of which have been particularly successful.

The Jags have nowhere to go but up after finishing dead last in offensive scoring in 2014, and there?s no shortage of skill position talent here, particularly at wide receiver. Olson will be joined on the staff by former Bills head coach Doug Marrone, the Jags new assistant head coach and offensive line guru.

Marrone?s tenure in Buffalo was marred by poor QB play, at least part of the reason why the Bills didn?t utilize their receivers as much as the Jags are expected to in the upcoming campaign.




Bill Musgrave, Raiders:

New head coach Jack Del Rio was looking for a coordinator with significant experience developing young quarterbacks like Derek Carr. Del Rio called Musgrave, who has been working with QB?s in the NFL for most of the last 16 years.

Musgrave and Chip Kelly called plays for Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez in Philly last year and he previously worked under Del Rio in Jacksonville ? this should be a relatively smooth transition. Musgrave has said Oakland will operate an up-tempo offense, much like Kelly?s attack in Philly.

Del Rio?s history is one of run-heavy approaches, and Musgrave had some success using a run-first approach during his tenure as the Vikings offensive coordinator, feeding Adrian Peterson the ball repeatedly.




Geep Chryst, 49ers:

The massive coaching upheaval in San Francisco has left only four coaches out of the 19 man coaching staff remaining from their 2013 Super Bowl team ? Chryst, new head coach Jim Tomsula, RB coach Tom Rathman and defensive assistant Ejiro Evero.

Chryst has been promoted from QB coach, getting his first shot at a coordinators job here in 2015 despite Colin Kaepernick?s modest regression last year. Kaepernick did set career highs in both rushing and passing yards in 2014, but the 49ers offense ranked below the league average on a yards per play and points per possession basis.

Chryst has been coaching under Greg Roman in recent seasons, using a run-first strategy. With in-house hires as both head coach and OC we can expect at least some continuity with that strategy in the upcoming season.

 

[Senor Capper]

Kyle Shanahan, Atlanta:

Shanahan?s dad was certainly a major factor in Kyle?s first few NFL coordinator jobs; none particularly successful. Shanahan worked under Mike Shanahan prot?g? Gary Kubiak as OC in Houston in 2008-2009, and then his dad for four years with the Redskins. His teams reached the playoffs only once ? the ill-fated RG3 injury game against Seattle. Last year?s debacle in Cleveland didn?t exactly bolster his reputation, and his offenses have been below the league average in each of his last two seasons.

Shanahan has utilized a run heavy approach in recent seasons, but that should change given the Falcons? talent level in the passing game. Atlanta has operated one of the league?s most pass-heavy offenses in recent years under Dirk Koetter, so we can reasonably expect less Matt Ryan and more spread rushing from Devonta Freeman and rookie Tevin Coleman (Indiana).

Shanahan is also looking to push the tempo, although the Falcons don?t have much room for improvement there after finishing sixth in the NFL in pace ratings compared to the No. 4 ranking from Cleveland. Despite that fast pace, the Browns went 5-11 to the UNDER in 2014.




Greg Roman, Buffalo:

Within two days of his hire in Buffalo, Rex Ryan got ?his guy? for OC. Roman enjoyed great success under Jim Harbaugh, both at Stanford and with the San Francisco 49ers utilizing a power running approach that Ryan favors. The Bills got their ?Ground & Pound? running back in the offseason, picking up Shady McCoy from Philadelphia to be the focal point of the offense. With Fred Jackson, former 49er Anthony Dixon and Pro Bowl fullback Jerome Felton on the roster as well, we can expect Buffalo to keep the ball on the ground early and often.

Ryan enjoyed great success with a ?run-first? offense and a stellar defense during his first few seasons with the Jets. Roman enjoyed similar success using a similar approach in his first few years in San Francisco. The Bills receiving corps is as good or better than either the Jets or 49ers in recent years, with Percy Harvin, Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins likely to operate out of two WR sets. Given the underwhelming nature of the Bills ongoing QB competition (EJ Manuel, Tyrod Taylor and Matt Cassel) the Bills could end up looking a lot like the Jets 2014 offense ? anemic.




John DeFilippo, Cleveland:

DeFilippo has been promoted from within to replace Shanahan. He has been coaching since 2000, primarily as a quarterbacks mentor. He comes from a coaching family ? his dad worked as an offensive assistant at Youngstown State and Vanderbilt. This will be his first coordinator position, and the Browns kept head coach Mike Pettine. Those two factors together ensure that Cleveland is not going to go through a major offensive overhaul in DeFilippo?s first season.

DeFilippo is not exactly walking into an ideal situation. The Browns QB job is clearly problematic, whether Johnny Manziel or Josh McCown wins the starting job. From a skill position talent standpoint, the Browns rank at or near the bottom of the league, very short on legit playmakers at both wide receiver and tight end. Expect a ?run-first? approach featuring second year backs Terrence West and Isaiah Cromwell battering opposing defenses behind a solid offense line that returns all five starters.



Chan Gailey, NY Jets:

Marty Mornhinweg?s run-heavy schemes are out, Gailey?s more balanced offense is in ? if the Jets can get decent QB play. Gailey has been around forever, a football coach since the early 1970?s. That said, he?s been out of the league for the last two seasons since his last stint as the Bills head coach ended following the 2012 campaign. Gailey has been an OC for four different NFL teams, most recently with KC in 2008. He clashed there with head coach Todd Haley and was relieved of his playcalling duties after three games of the 2009 preseason. At 63 Gailey is clearly in the ?tired retread? category.

His offenses in Buffalo were remarkably consistent, scoring 24 passing touchdowns and averaging seven yards per throw during each of his three seasons on the job. The Jets are certainly hoping for at least that level of production this year. There are obvious unsettled concerns at quarterback. Geno Smith?s primary competition, Ryan Fitzpatrick, was Gailey?s starting QB with the Bills. After spending big bucks on wideouts Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker over the past two offseasons and drafting speedy Devin Smith out of Ohio State, at least whoever wins the QB job will have some weapons.



Frank Cignetti, St. Louis:

Cignetti got the promotion from within after serving as Jeff Fisher?s QB coach the last three seasons, despite insufficient results. His dad was a successful D-II coach at Indiana University of Pennsylvania, although his tenure as the West Virginia head coach wasn?t a good one. Cignetti played for his dad in college, and then embarked on a coaching career that has included stops as OC for North Carolina, Fresno State, Cal and Pitt.

From all reports from St. Louis, the Rams are looking to introduce a throwback style of play, using a physical running attack; reminiscent of Fisher?s better teams at Tennessee. They?re loaded at RB with first rounder Todd Gurley (still recovering from injury) joining Tre Mason and the Rams return their entire receiving corps from intact. With a shaky QB situation and potentially three new starting offensive lineman, the St. Louis had better hope the defense is as good as advertised because this offense is not primed to explode.



Dirk Koetter, Tampa Bay:

Koetter has been around the block before. He enjoyed great success as a collegiate head coach, building up the Boise State program to its current level before a stint at Arizona State. In the NFL, he enjoyed a decent run as the OC for Jacksonville and spent the last three years coaching up Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Roddy White in Atlanta.

The Bucs offense has legitimate weapons at wideout, with Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans along with emerging young tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins. But Koetter?s pass-happy style of play calling (tons of 4 WR sets in Atlanta last year) may not be the best fit for an offense that?s expected to start a rookie at QB and potentially two more on the offensive line (including second rounder Donovan Smith) being asked to protect Jameis Winston?s blind side at left tackle. It has been a very unsettled unit in recent seasons. Koetter?s clearly a hire in the ?tired retread? category and having to deal with a ?work in progress? offense.