Big Tease has some good comments about this line being way too high for a neutral field. And if you look at the raw statistical numbers, there is no way that a 7 point line is justified. So why is it so high? I think that Vegas is flat out saying that the AFC is just better than the NFC this year. I happen to believe this as well, so I did some research. I decided to look for regular season games where an eventual playoff team from the NFC met an eventual playoff team from the AFC. It happened 7 times this year. Here are the results, with the home team in caps:
NE 12 dallas 0
ne 31 PHILLY 10
CAR 17 tenn 37
ST LOU 33 bal 22
GB 31 den 3
GB 34 kc 40
seattle 41 BAL 44
Right there that's a 5-2 record for the AFC. Personally, though, I'm going to throw 2 of those games out. The GB-Denver game, because it was the last game of the season and Denver sleptwalk through it, and the Seattle-Bal game, because of the refs botching the clock and giving baltimore extra time. So that brings it to 4-1 for the AFC, including 3-1 on the road (3-2 if you count all the games). Of course, this doesn't take into account situations, injuries, and all that but I think this confirms that there really is a difference in class this year between the AFCand NFC.
The public likes betting the favorite, and so I do think that this line will climb as we get closer to the game. But I think it will climb for a reason. I see the Pats rolling.
NE 12 dallas 0
ne 31 PHILLY 10
CAR 17 tenn 37
ST LOU 33 bal 22
GB 31 den 3
GB 34 kc 40
seattle 41 BAL 44
Right there that's a 5-2 record for the AFC. Personally, though, I'm going to throw 2 of those games out. The GB-Denver game, because it was the last game of the season and Denver sleptwalk through it, and the Seattle-Bal game, because of the refs botching the clock and giving baltimore extra time. So that brings it to 4-1 for the AFC, including 3-1 on the road (3-2 if you count all the games). Of course, this doesn't take into account situations, injuries, and all that but I think this confirms that there really is a difference in class this year between the AFCand NFC.
The public likes betting the favorite, and so I do think that this line will climb as we get closer to the game. But I think it will climb for a reason. I see the Pats rolling.
