AFL Dart-throw system week #14

[PAWAQATSI]

Season to date: 14 - 12 @ 53.8% --- Bank = 44.7%

Two thirds of the way through the season and the system really needs to pull it's friggin' finger out.

Thankfully just the one selection this week. Saturday night @ the Dome, Sydney come to town to take on the Melbourne Demons. Sydney gets +11.5 start, though recent form would suggest that Sydney wins this outright. The books don't swallow the formline and neither do I. Sydney shafted me last week against a Geelong side that was missing 10 starters (3 pulled out before the start) and I know that the result of that game has skewed my numbers. I don't like this pick one bit!! I'm being dragged...kicking and screaming onto....

Sydney +11.5 versus Melbourne

Melbourne are so due to turn it on and have been "baked" by the Melbourne press this week ( how about a picture of four players leaving the field with clean jumpers against Port!). Only playing 10% on this stinker.

:director: Steer clear folks!

*edit to correct season record

 

[InSpades]

Paw,

I will take your advice and stay away from this pick.

I have seen systems that are profitable by fading them. In other words, if a system says to play a team , fade it and play the other side. Maybe the system you use is a good "Fade System". Maybe the other system you were using would be a good fade. Since the current system you use says to take Sydney +11.5, I will take Melbourne -10.5 this week. At least one of us will win!

How has the system done in past years?

IS

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Spades

You're not taking the piss out of me are ya?!!

 

[InSpades]

LOL Paw

I didn't mean to offend you. All I am saying is it might be profitable to fade the system.

I have seen other people develop a system that they later learn is good to fade.

Maybe if the number lands on 11 we both win!

IS

 

[bombercoops]

If he'd faded the system thus far he would be 11-14 instead of 14-11! ???

 

[InSpades]

If he'd faded the system thus far he would be 11-14 instead of 14-11! ???

Yeah..that is correct. Fading the other system Paw was using would be wiser.

IS

 

[PAWAQATSI]

How has the system done in past years?

IS

Spades

Here are the historical figures for the 'Express' system.

Wins / Losses
2004 > 10 - 13 @ 43% Bank low = 18% bank high = 111%
2003 > 19 - 13 @ 59% B/low = 80% b/hi = 236.56%
2002 > 29 - 17 @ 63% B/low = 71%
b/hi = 391%
2001 > 27 - 10 @ 73% B/low = 47.94% b/hi = 489.66%
2000 > 25 - 15 @ 62.5% B/low = 107.86% b/hi = 221.78%
1999 > 19 - 10 @ 65.5% B/low = 116.8% b/hi = 453.57%
1998 > 23 - 14 @ 62% B/low = 57.75% b/hi = 271%
1997 > 25 - 16 @ 61% B/low = 93% b/hi = 314%

It must be remembered that in this '05 season I have merged express plays with the hybrid version that I had worked on between seasons. The hybrid has cost me $ as the returns on winners are less. The Express system figures alone for '05 currently stand at 10 - 8 and would have me around the 120% bankroll mark. The fact that I have strayed from the path sees me at an unimpressive 55.8%

Last year was a stinker and coincided with me throwing my largest bankroll at it. Huge damage was done from which I am still recovering. This season is not helping the cause.

To suggest fading the plays is insane, as over the years its winning % ave still tops 60. If you were to roll over each season from '97 onwards with a starting bank of a just few a grand, you would currently be swimming in a pool of $$ with a bimbo on each arm and enough "bling-bling" to sink you to the bottom!!

It is a test of nerves and I have failed a few times to stay on course. It's just that when your bank takes a hammering you tend to be more cautious with how you play and I have tended to outsmart myself with how I have betted. Where I am and where I should be are two different places. I do however have to worry about my bank and I need to keep it in reasonable shape so I can bet my other sports.

Long term the system wins. It's just hard to live thru the troughs.

 

[InSpades]

I stand corrected.

I will continue to play the system plays as well. I will put a double wager on Sydney to make up for putting money on Melbourne earlier.

Good luck to us.

IS

 

[MrChristo]

Nice hit, buddy. :thumb:

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Sydney 104 defeated

Melbourne 78

This is what I mean by outsmarting myself!! Only 10% on it means a lesser bank once again. Mind you I'll take any win at this point.


Season to date: 15 - 12 @ 55.5% --- Bank = 48.7%

:142squint

 

[InSpades]

:clap:

IS