AFL Express system week #8

[PAWAQATSI]

Season to date: 8 - 4 @ 66.6% --- Bank = 123%

A bumper week from the system this week. Two standard, two hybrid.

First up on Saturday...no explanation required!!

Geelong over 15.5 points versus Fremantle


Next one is on Saturday night @ the Dome. Not so keen on this one!

Sydney +19.5 pts versus St.Kilda



Sunday has two more, both played across the afternoon.

Adelaide over 15.5 points versus Carlton

Western Bulldogs ML versus Essendon

Would normally split my 20% over the two games here but might just wait to see what Saturday brings me. :mj03:

LET'S ROLL OUT....

:slomo

 

[MrChristo]

Was starting to worry that you'd jumped after last weeks flogging, PAWA!

I actually like Sydney +19.5...Been trying to talk myself into it all week.
St. Kilda really struggling. McGuire back this week, but Hamill still is a big out.
Williams back for Sydney will definately give them more drive.

I've tipped Sydney to win, but don't think I'm confident enough to back them with real $$.

Good luck, mate....Oh, Dogs 2.15 @ 365

 

[alb]

Geelong over 15.5 points versus Fremantle

Adelaide over 15.5 points versus Carlton

I assume you bought the points....thus what you mean by hybrid. What kind of price do you pay for this and which book(s) make this possible?

I will be on the 2 standard plays so GL to us.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Christo...glad you like the Swans pick coz I'm not so confident! Yeah I saw the Bulldogs @ 365 but I don't have enough over there to go the full 20% of the bank! Will probably play half of it there though. I hope they kick straight this time!


Alb...The "hybrid" is something I have added to the standard express system this season. Went through my numbers in the off-season and found a great % trend when applying this method. Usually picks strong faves and they generally win by big margins.

Some historically checked years have hit around 90 -100% of the time!!

Over 15.5 points winning margin is an option available at a few Australian books over here in a category called "Tri-bet". You can pick either team to win by 16 points or more or you can pick the game to fall between "either team winning by up to 15 points". No buying points involved.

Strict criteria to be eligible and generally improves a fave of say $1.20 going out to $1.35 when they win by 16 or more. It is good for faves that are around $1.50 - $1.60 odd as this takes 'em up to $1.80ish, closer to a "line" dividend.

If you can't get this option then it is probably worth a smaller play on the "minus line" offered on these teams.

I hope this clears things up.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Fremantle 91 defeated

Geelong 82 :wtf:

I didn't see any of this game but it looks like poor kicking by the Cats and straight kicking by Freo was the difference. This one hurt!!

Season to date: 8 - 5 @ 61.5% --- Bank = 98.6%

Need the Swans to lift tonight.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

St. Kilda 101 defeated

Sydney 58


Thanks Sydney...you ****** motherf****rs!! :cursin:

Season to date: 8 - 6 @ 57% --- Bank = 78.9%

Possible de-railment ahead!!!

Splitting todays games with 10% on each. This could be a black day for the Express.


Stand clear.

 

[bombercoops]

Get these two games over the line today paw and you'll have turned an ordinary looking week in to an acceptable one mate. Can't say I'll be pulling for you in the dons game for obvious reasons but wish the best all the same.
How about your roos last night?? I bet you were a happy man at full time last night.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

How about your roos last night?? I bet you were a happy man at full time last night.

Bomber...yes, I was happy and extremely surprised but I am not prepared to take them back as "mine" just yet!!

Adelaide 71 trip over

Carlton 57

Poor kicking at goal has cost me once again. 9 goals 17 behinds to 8 .9 is just ridiculous. Even in the last 30 seconds of the game they still could have got home with Thompson earning an easy set shot about 40 out. What does this knucklehead do with it? He kicks it out on the full!! :cursin:

Essendon 137 defeated

Western Bulldogs 110

Bulldogs never in the hunt and go down without a wimper!

Season to date: 8 - 8 @ 50% --- Bank = 63.2%

Black weekend. In a year where dogs are winning close to 50% of the time, the system is just picking the wrong ones. Form has meant nothing this season and the system is so reliant on the previous two weeks stats. It's gunna take some work from here on in!

 

[MrChristo]

Form has meant nothing this season and the system is so reliant on the previous two weeks stats. It's gunna take some work from here on in!

What to say mate?

100% agree!...I'm SO tempted just to back every dog SU from here on in.
Form is out...all logic seems to be out....Set shots seem to be out!!

All you can do is pick the better team...

...The Crows should have had it wrapped up at HT, ended with 9 more shots. (yeah, not including the out on the fulls! :cursin: )
Geelong have 5 extra shots.
Dogs have more shots last week as 'dogs.

Frustrating as hell!...Actually, more frusting than that.....