AFL: Finals- Week 1

[bombercoops]

4 good match-ups this weekend to look forward to. Port have been in great form in the past couple of months but its hard to go past a west coast team any time they are offering points. Expecting a tight game with a lean to the coasters to get the extra week off. Looking forward to your stats here christo.
Hawthorn getting points at home to the crows looking appealing also. They have played well in Melbourne for most of the year and altho the crows have played well to earn a finals spot in the past few weeks, I think the hawks have the legs to run this one out for the win. Adelaide have under-achieved all year imo and I reckon their finals campaign ends this week.
Sydney/collingwood in a re-match game from a couple of weeks back where the pies took the points. We all know how capable sydney is of turning on their best football when they need to, can't see any reason why that will change this week. They get redemption this week with a win over the pies.
I think your roos will be gallant in defeat this week pawa with the finals margin falling somehwere close to the 24.5 point line. Staying away from this one but looking forward to seeing how hard the roos compete in a game no-one is expecting them to win.
Should be a great year of finals once again. Cats and west coast in the big one for mine.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Just finished my numbers Coops and my Roos actually qualify as a 'mech' pick!! Not that that is anything to get excited about given its sub-par season.

The mech is on average 5% down during finals but it still gives food for thought with the 4 goal start on offer. :shrug:

Certainly got me a little more excited for sundays big game. Expecting 70 thou + (56k tickets gone already!) the most of any finals sales thus far.

Gunna be a big day out baby!!

 

[bombercoops]

So would it be safe to say that you have already made the ticket purchase mate?
Hope the mech is right for your sake paw! I can only dream how good it would be sitting at a finals game. Especially when its your team in the thick of things. Hang on....... that's been a while for me! :shrug:

 

[MrChristo]

Port v. Eagles over tonight...

I see 'showers around the hills' forecast, but nothing much showing up on radar.
Maybe it's in relation to the Eagles' strong defensive history in finals, but they just aren't the same team this year.
Their lowest total in the last EIGHT games has been 203!
Port have topped 202 in 8 of their last 10. (1 under at Aurora, and one at home v. Adelaide where they allowed them 28 shots! 9.19)
Both teams leaking defensively, allowing shotsw @ 1.89 each, and Port score at 1.76 at home this season as it is...Eagles 2.05 away, but still the least points I show is 185...
...in which case Centrebet works for me!

185-204 [saver]
205+ @ effectively 2.17.

Fairly rediculous prices imho.


I've been thinking Adelaide all week...but now not so sure. It was only 6 weeks ago they lost at the Dome to Essendon.
One noticable thing over the last 5 tho is the respective D's...Crows back to some of their best form, allowing a shot every 2.31 entry...Hawthorn @ 1.89...and 4 of their last 7 games have been 1.79 or worse.
Just seems very tough to trust the Crows forwardline to win a game tho.
Of course the one major reason I think the Crows will win is their history with Hawthorn. Won last 4 by av. 50 ppg, and won 6 of last 7...only loss by 5 points.
Much like Sydney, the Crows will play a lock-down man on man style that Hawthorn just can't seem to break.
I do think the Crows get up here, but couldn't take the -7.5 and think the 1.60 is about right.

Was just looking back through the season...

...how many times do you reckon Hawthorn have had more shots v. a team who finished in the finals?

Kangaroos in Rd. 3. That's it!

Wins over West Coast, but 15.9 to 8.16 down here in the sticks...
17.7 to 10.15 v. Port...
15.5 to 12.15 v. Collingwood...

and that's it. :shrug:


Tempted by Collingwood +6.5.... Last 5 games their midfield has been good (+6 I50's), but their backline has fallen away badly (1.85 compared to 2.00 for the season)...
...but again, can Sydney take advantage away from the SCG?
Away from home this season they have av'd just 45 I50's and scored at 2.03...for about 22 shots per game.
Enough to be favs in a final at the MCG?
BUT, small wins over Richmond and Carlton, and 2 losses in their last 5...the one saving grace of course is their 25 point win @ Sydney.
Pies won last 3 meetings, and 4 of last 6, have NOT lost one by more than 6 points.
Ignore the Swans win last week...against their bunnies and at their fav ground...
...not sure. Just..not sure!! Collingwood or nothing...

..and that makes me sad! :nono:

Have a great day there on Sunday Pawa...should be a cracker.
Very tempted by the 4 goals myself, but I think we can safely discount the last 2 'Roos wins.
3 straight losses before that, including a 17 point loss to a poor travelling Eagles team just might not bode all that well... :shrug:

 

[bombercoops]

Happy to see West Coast cover the number tonight in the low scoring affair with port.
Now if only the hawks and Sydney can roll thru tomorrow's games.......:mj09:
Head to head in both games tomorrow christo:142slap:

 

[MrChristo]

Nice call on the Hawks, Coops! :00hour

I decided to stay away after losing Friday night's bet by a near record margin!!...
...they (either team!) just wouldn't score!!
Nasty indeed.

Changed tack tonight too...on the strength of the Eagles shutting up shop I'm going on the under 170.5 tonight (1.72) with a saver of 171-191.
Totally discounting last week's score-a-thon by the Swans...should be a tight game all the way and I can't see either team kicking a big score.
Sydney score a whole lot less away from their true home (SCG), and must be due for some poor kicking after last week aswell.

ok...Sydney to win a slug-fest it is

 

[bombercoops]

Thanks christo... pity about the swans tho! Must say I'm very surprised at how bad they were tonight against the pies! Very ordinary effort from a team which can play at a much higher level- especially considering the game was a final. Have a nice offseason fella's........:sadwave: :mj04:

 

[bombercoops]

Thanks christo... pity about the swans tho! Must say I'm very surprised at how bad they were tonight against the pies! Very ordinary effort from a team which can play at a much higher level- especially considering the game was a final. Have a nice offseason fella's........:sadwave: :mj04: (sydney that is!)

 

[bombercoops]

Hello, pawa.......? Testing..........pawa, are you there?? Mate, looking for a 'please explain' as to what happened with your boys out there today!
Just in, coach Laidley found in suberbian park.....:00x4 . Just kidding mate!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Mate.......I've never left a game early in my life.

Today I left 10 minutes into the third qtr!! :nooo:

Cats are white hot at both ends of the park. Gunna take an incredible effort to stop them holding up the cup.


Fawk me, we've over achieved for the season so I should be happy coming back next week. After what I just witnessed.....it's hard to crack a smile :shrug:



*go check your mail coops!