Afl......finals - Week #1

[PAWAQATSI]

Kicking off a bit earlier than usual this week, as I am only playing selections from my mechanical system.
It has a particular liking for 2 of the 4 games.

First up, in the Qualifying Final between Brisbane v Adelaide played on Saturday night at the GABBA, she has a distinct liking for the visiting Crows. There is no denying that Brisbane is the team to beat for the cup this year but Adelaide is the team that can give them the best matchup. Adelaide has won seven of the last eight encounters between the two teams and holds no fear of playing the Lions juggernaut. Don't discount an upset but more likely Brisbane in a tight one. Playing Adelaide +28.5 v Brisbane

Second up, in Sundays Elimination Final between my Kangaroos v Melbourne at the MCG, she leans towards the Roos. With three big guns returning in Sav Rocca up forward, Archer down back and the 'human torpedo' Byron Pickett back from suspension, expect a fired up reception waiting for the Demons. Playing Kangaroos +7.5 v Melbourne

 

[MrChristo]

PAWA

Just a heads-up mate......I'm not sure where you are getting your info, but Adelaide have certainly NOT won 7 of the past 8 matchups :nono:

They've won the last 2, by 7 (home) and 5 (Gabba), but before that lost 4 straight by 37, 30, 39 and 61

I personally like the Crows chances too, but too many numbers say the opposite.
A pass for me....or use Bris win in a couple or multi's

Will get you an e-mail in the next day or two....Trying to finish something off first (Which I will let you know about )

 

[MrChristo]

They've actually won the past 3 games, but one was in pre-season, so I don't know how much weight to put on that one.

As for the handicap:

Every time Brisbane has beaten Adelaide it has been by more than the handicap.
7 of the 8 finals Brisbane have won have been by 26 points or more. (They won their second ever final by 1 point in 1996).
Brisbane have won 17 of their last 20 home games by 30 points or more. The 3 they didn't were 3 in a row rounds 12-14 this year when they were missing Voss and Lappin.

I wanted to play Adelaide all week, but their only real advantage is clearances, and it looks like being a hot, clear night, so that might be negated.
:shrug: :shrug: :shrug: :shrug: I've talked myself out of it, but good luck!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

.......surprised me when I read it but figured that Brisbane were a pretty crappy football team up until two years ago so it kind of made sense!!! Adelaide have won the last three and that is reason enough to like the current matchups. Goodwin and Welsh a couple of handy inclusions. I very much like the Crows getting the start but more importantly......so does the 28 - 15 Pawamech!!

Will certainly be staying in with a few coldies to watch it.....

 

[beast2]

Week 1 Finals Play
Port -30.5 d Collingwood

Be back with other plays later

Craig

 

[beast2]

I know I have lost plays this year but the game last night has to be the worst I've picked a game all year. I gave Collingwood no chance of even getting close to Port so for them to win outright was an amazing effort.

Further Plays:
Essendon -29.5 d West Coast
Melbourne -5.5 d Kangaroos

Also like Adelaide plus the points but will stay out of this game as I am a Crows supporter and believe my bias may be influencing this.

Craig

 

[PAWAQATSI]

You certainly weren't alone Beasty. Collingwood had no right to win the game but now get the weeks break and a crack at a Preliminary Final It's going to be unbearable in Melbourne for the next fortnight as all the Collingwood scum do their chest pounding!!!

Good luck with your Essendon play and let's get your Crows up or at least fight it out in a close one. Plenty of $$$ riding on them

 

[beast2]

There are games you lose a bet on and you have been unlucky and there is games you win and you wonder how the team ever covered. Essendon today was an example of that. They never looked like running over West Coast and there were a couple of times during the match when West Coast looked like they might run away with the match. These wins though are the ones that make up for those bad beats when things just don't fall your way.

As for the Crows, there is little I can say except that was an absolute shocking performance against Brisbane. Crows were never in the game and were outclassed by a far superior side who on that form will easily win the premiership.

Craig

 

[MrChristo]

I think you'll find that West Coast and Adelaide's problems were one and the same!

Both traveling long distances for two weeks in a row....Not good, obviously.

Get set for a Brisbane/Adelaide final, which WILL be an absolute cracker!

As I said, Adelaide was not the play tonight, but get on them next week to win the Prem ...Easy hedge

What are the chances of Ess being favoured next week?????????

 

[MrChristo]

As for Port..........When you have key players such as Francou (could you turn it over any more?).....Tredrea (Mmmm...a GOAL might be handy!)......James(36 possies one week, how many when it counts??)............CHOKE!!

WILL NOT WIN NEXT WEEK!!!!!!!!!

Simple as that

As I said...Crows/Lions Final...All a bit easy now

 

[PAWAQATSI]

The old girl really got Adelaide wrong!! Flushing 20% of the kitty down the gurgler!!
Heading off to the 'G' shortly to watch my boys get some of it back. MrC...I expect the Power to bounce back against an undermanned Essendon outfit. Surely too good a side to drop out in straight sets?

GO YOU ROOBOYS!!!!!!!!

 

[MrChristo]

Um..yeah!

Sorry guys.....May I recommend you never post when drunk!!

Still don't rate Port, don't know where the game will be played either!!!

Go you Roos indeed

 

[beast2]

Week 1 Finals: 2-1

After a disasterous start to the weekend and a lucky win with Essendon the weekend didn't turn out too bad when Melboure won. I am not as disappointed as I should be that the Crows lost as we have now have an easier draw to the Grand Final. The only downside the crows will have to play in Melbourne every week now.

Craig

 

[PAWAQATSI]

A very bad weekend for the mech going 0 - 2 and slashing the mech bank back to 250.4% of original stash.
Overall 28 - 17 @ 62.2%. A few more weeks to build it up again hopefully.

Craig....your Crows were woeful but I still think they are the only ones that can threaten the Lions at all. It would take a 'spe.e.e.cial' effort though!! as Bruce would say

Time for my Roos to hit the piss!!! They went alot further than anyone (including myself) thought they would after the events of Feb/March.