AFL: Finals- Week1

[bombercoops]

Can't wait for the weekend to arrive so we can sweat out the first week of finals for the year. Surprised to see the dees as underdogs against the dons but the early money looks to have gone there way from $2.05 to $2.00. There record at the 'G' speaks for itself this year but with Neitz hurt and the team unfolding (I mentioned to you at the telstra dome back in early July pawa that I thought this may happen) it makes for a good contest.
The swans/west coast game should also be a cracker h/o, I like the swans to cover the 15.5.
Hard to see Geelong upsetting port but they have been a team full of surprises this year so they would have to be some kind of chance if they get off the mark quickly.
The brissy/saints game will be interesting but the saints will have to play 4 very solid quarters of footy to match it with the 3 time premiers. Brissy giving up a few points here but leaning on them to cover.
Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on the weekends games christo, pawa and beast.

 

[nehpets]

Think the lines look pretty accurate this week and would suggest take underdogs or nothing.
I'd make the lines:

Sydney -12, faves traditionally NOT a good play in swans games, swans style generally keeps it lower scoring, and this will be at Homebush where swans record isn't great, not the SCG where swans are more solid

Melbourne Essendon off the board due to Neitz and co. status... also was suprised to see melbourne as slight dogs and presume this is partly due to injuries

Bris -30 something, a fair few coz after a slow 1st quarter, they came back to beat stkilda convincingly up there just a few weeks ago, this now a night match may change things a bit,

Port -20, Geelong are a strong side, will give it a crack, but looks like the bookies see it the same way ... thought we would see Geelong + a few more points, so doesn't look like a play here

 

[PAWAQATSI]

I've got Brisbane and Essendon coming up as 'strong plays' in this first week of Finals.

Brisbane will beat the Saints and should cover the -27.5pts. The Sainters are still reeling from the belting that Brissy dished out to them 2 weeks ago. The Saints couldn't finish off a 'plumeting' Freo team last week @ their favourite ground in the Dome, so what hope in the Lion's den?!!
No Hamil...no Milne and an unfit G-Train spells gloom for the Sainters. This team will have no confidence travelling back up there for some more punishment. Brisbane, even without Lynch should cover, pulling away in the second half.

Not as confident about an 'average' Essendon side playing Melbourne who have dropped their last 4 coming into the Finals. Neitz is very doubtful and without him its hard to see them confident enough to kick a winning score. Bombers by default(!) to last 1 more week than they deserve. (sorry coops....harsh but true oke )

 

[bombercoops]

Couldn't agree more paw! The dons crawled in to the finals and really do not deserve to make it much further. Should be a decent game though. Like brissy to pull away in the second half aswell. Christo?????

 

[MrChristo]

@ 2.10 you gotta love Melbourne, yeah??

Last 4 games have all been reasonably explainable for the Dees...Not the HUGE drop off in form that everyone keeps saying....The problem I guess has been their lack of scoring in those 4 games.....
...Which I guess leads to the Nietz factor. Will he be that big of a loss? H'es been getting it ok lately but kicking terribly.

I have a feeling that with Nietz out the Melbourne forward line just might function that bit better!!...No obvious target for the Ess defenders to zone off to.

Melbourne av more than 10 more inside 50's at the 'G than their opp, so I guess that's half the battle won.

Not a hugely confident pick, but will be playing Melbourne purely based on the odds....Anything over 2.00 has to be value imo.

Rest of the games look spot on.

I'm actually expecting the Saints to put on a much better showing than Rd. 21.
Lynch kicked 4 for Bris....Hamill did ****-all anyway!!...Guerra is 100% better than Milne.
Remember, the Saints started very well up there, but fell away in 30+ dg heat.
It's been raining up there all week, and forecast is for showers and 22.
Tempted to grab the +29.5, but I guess realistically Brisbane 1-40 is the better option.

Should be 4 good games if nothing else!!...Can't wait until it all gets underway tonight!!

Good luck if you're having a bet guys. :toast:

 

[MrChristo]

58-36 (+21.80)

Melbourne 2.20 @ Betfair guys.....That just HAS to be taken imo.

Also got St. Kilda +29.5 @ 1.95.

A unit on each. :drinky:

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Watched the greatest team of all time disect St.Kilda by 80 points tonight by smashing them early in the first quarter. They never recovered and probably won't during the rest of this finals series either. Maybe next year for this young Saints side.
This Lions side is simply awsome to watch. :scared


'Strong play' homers now 21-3 / 17-7 ATS
Loving this new system and hope that its past is as solid.

 

[jpblack34]

Hey guys...just wanted to wish ya good luck in the finals...Blackers

Bomber..give me a call whenever your wife lets you.

 

[bombercoops]

:clap: :142lmao: Black, I'm a busy man and you know that. Whenever the wife let's me ay??? :142lmao:
Good to see brissy sneak home a win. Does anybody have even a slight chance of beating these guys in the grand final this year? Getting old seeing brisbane dominate like this.

 

[bombercoops]

Good luck to you guys on Melbourne, but for my own reasons, obviously hoping the dons can fire up and make it another week. What a waste of a season it would be for melbourne if they can't even make it to the second week of finals after sitting on top of the ladder through 17 or 18 rounds. Taking the swans tonight to cover the 14.5 for 1 unit.

 

[bombercoops]

Wow! :clap: What a game it must have been at the 'G'. Wish I was able to watch it. Was there a huge wind from one end of the ground to the other or something as the scoring in the game was all over the place from quarter to quarter?? The boys will have one more week to look forward to anyway.
See the money is coming in on the eagles a lttle. Like the swans that much more because of it. On to tonight.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

No wind bomber....just surging fortunes for each side as Essendon came out hard only to let Melbourne back into it late in the 1st quarter. All Bombers in the 2nd and they look to have a match winning lead. 3rd quarter....a different Melbourne side came out and ran amok!! Last quarter was just an arm wrestle with both side having their chances to win. Siren just happened to go with Essendon clinging to a 5 point lead. Freaky game to watch but glad to be on the right side of a close one for once.

Eagles started strong tonight but Sydney slowly strangled their forward line and cruised to an easy win. They'll find it harder against the Cats down here next week.

Port at home have too much advantage and will be too strong for Geelong but just a small play on the over 15.5pts for interest.

My 'strong plays' are getting plenty of 'express carnage' cash back from the man. It's just a shame I stumbled onto them so late in the season :cursin:

 

[bombercoops]

Pawa, glad to hear that your 'strong plays' are making back some of that $$ from early in the season. Will be worth looking at recent history in this catergory (like you mentioned), once the off season rolls around. Don't sydney play the saints next friday night and the dons play the loser of the port/geelong game??

 

[MrChristo]

Yep. Sydney play the Saints @ the 'G...and hopefully will be paying something decent because they WILL win!!

Was hoping for ~3.00ish, but will be lucky to get 2.50 now I reckon.

Melbourne/Ess was a great game....One CRUCIAL play...Ward kicked a goal for Melbourne only to have it disallowed because of a STUPID head-high 'shepard' off the ball. 3 kicks later it was in Lloyd's hands woh kicked a goal. 12 point turnaround which REALLY hurt.
Oh, and Phil Read is the worst player to have pulled on and AFL guersey. Terrible. Probably cost Melbourne 3-4 goals.

But, as bad as he is, at least he isn't scared. Aussie Jones would have slept with the light on for sure Friday night. Scared silly!

 

[bombercoops]

Agree with ya on the swans 'C'. Think they will beat the saints next week and then give port something to think about the following week. See them paying about 2.40ish next week and will be right there with you as far as having a wager on it.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Aussie Jones would have slept with the light on for sure Friday night. Scared silly!

:142lmao:


A bit harsh on Read. At least he goes in and has a crack at it!!

 

[nehpets]

swans will be odds on faves for sure