AFL finals wk. 1.

[MrChristo]

Adelaide -4.5

The Crows beat St. Kilda by 46 points in Melbourne in rd. 9...Now, Hamill, Kositzski and Maguire were out for the Saints, but the key stats was 61-40 inside 50's the Crows way, and this has been their strength all year.
At home they allow just 39.9 inside 50's p/g, and hold a +16.1 p/g advantage. Add a very settled and strong defense (allowed the fewest points in AFL/VFL history!), and opposition teams find it very tough to score at AAMI.
Adelaide have won 10 of 11 home games this year, by an av. of 39 points.
St. Kilda have played 5 games interstate this year and won only one (by a single point at a neutral venue in Launceston).
The Saints have a very suspect defense, and still have 3-4 players struggling with injury.
They rely on lots of midfield ball and a high score to win, 2 things that the Crows are exceptional at stopping.

 

[bombercoops]

Nice stats and couldn't agree more christo! All over the crows this weekend!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Was thinking Crows are the bet of the round until I ran my system numbers.

Saints, Swans and Port (ML) all qualify as selections with the points start!!! Now the system winning hit rate drops to 55ish% during Finals so I expect at least one of these three to get up or "backdoor".

Fu*#......I hope it won't be Port against my guys!!

I'll have to ponder this a little more.

 

[Cartman88]

Very interesting and very even week of final matches coming up.

3 plays for me ....

Melbourne $2.08 vs Geelong
Adelaide -4.5 vs St Kilda
Port Adelaide $1.96 vs Kangaroos (2 units)

 

[MrChristo]

After a fair bit of thinking I'm happy to play the Eagles tonight @ -12.5.

Obviously a fair bit being made out of the Eagles' form, but 3 losses away from home and a loss to the best team in the comp all when a top 2 spot had been sewn up isn't taht much of a worry, I don't think.
...Besides, Sydney's last 7 wins have come against Hawthron, Brisbane (after they'd thrown it in), Essendon, Melbourne, Geelong...and the Kanga's and obviously West Coast @ home....
...BUT...In the win over West Coast, Sydney had only 1 more inside 50 and one more shot than the Eagles. Things will be a lot tougher for them on the wide expanses of Subi.
When they met in Perth in Rd. 6, West Coast won by 45 points.

Unlike Adelaide, Sydney just don't have the midfield to be able to lock down the Eagles' runners. Sure, their forward line has sprung to life, but it's a bit hard when the ball ain't down there!

West Coast have been amazingly good at home, winning 15 (?) straight before the loss to the Crows last week, and Sydney have lost their last 5 games there by an av. of 28 points....3 v. the Eagles with losses by 13, 27 and 45.

Just think that the Eagles have played too well all year to throw a chance like this away now.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

With you Christo but playing the Coasters Under 39.5 @ $2.30 in another low scorer. I expect a confident Sydney to run 'em close.

Should be a good game to watch.

Also boxed WC / Adel / Roos all under 39.5 @ $13.20 for a small play.

Maguire out for the Saints almost makes up for Ricciuto missing.......well....almost!!

 

[bombercoops]

Like your little trifecta pawa! Think the Roos game may be the only one that could hold you back IMO but if they win, you would definitely have to think that it would be inside 39. $13.20 is a nice price! Nothing against you guys but would like to see sydney pull off the upset tonight and throw a spanner in the works to kick start this years finals series. Not getting enough of it forward early in the game though as you mentioned may happen christo.

 

[MrChristo]

Well....I think I may have gotten lucky tonight. (Quit the giggling and the sister jokes too, you blokes!)...

...Went to put some $$ down on West Coast -12.5, and by the time I deposited the cash, the spread had changed to -13.5.

I was feeling particularly supersticious at the time, so I decided to leave it alone....Definate sign from the GambLord

At least now I can relax and watch, what should be, a pretty good tight game from here on!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Well it was one hell of a game!! Sydney looked to have it with 5 mins to go only to surrender the lead at the death. Sydney just smothered the Eagles offense all night. Hall was quiet and it was probably the difference in Sydney falling short.How did that low scoring quarter go 33 minutes??

The system got it right so hopefully Adelaide and North can get on with the job of bucking the odds.

Burgoyne very doubtful helps us.

 

[MrChristo]

That was indeed one of the best games I've ever seen!!

Hopefully some people who are advocating limiting the interchange/slowing the game down get to watch it.

I'm pretty sure the commentators were on drugs in that last 5 minutes tho. The 5 minute warning came on and almost immediately Bolton went off with the blood rule. When play started about 2 minutes later, Quartermain said, "There's about 2 minutes left."!!....when there was the best part of five.
Pretty sure there was another blood rule too...not to mention the ball being out of bounds every 30 seconds or so!

I'm 90% sure that Burgoine won't play, PAWA. I saw him at training on Fox and he could barely run in a straight line on his own.

Not convinced aobut the Kanga's under 40 tho....If it's close then I think Port will win....otherwise the Kanga's are a huge chance to win by 10 goals!!

Good luck with the Dees today, Cartman.

 

[bombercoops]

Great game last night- what finals are all about! If Kennelly kicks the goal on the run with 10 mins to go and put the swans up by 19 points it might have been enough. Thought the cats game may have been a little tighter today but i guess the dees have been playing elimination games for the past 4 weeks so it had to catch up with them at some stage. I see either port or the roos winning inside 39 tomorrow paw and i hope for your sake it's the roos mate. Also, hoping tonights duel is exactly that and comes down to the wire as last night did. Should be a great game!

 

[Danny Boy]

I sisnt catch any of the games this week I would of been more interested if hawthorn had a better season and were up there but after playin afl for 8 years im startin to lose interest cause Hawthorn are so shit lol

 

[bombercoops]

Wow! Port haven't turned it on like that since last years season! Pawa, I'm sure you made the effort to get to the game mate and ummm......yehh....any comments? Did you say something about christo and I visiting a bar to drown our sorrows after the final home and away game? I think you did! Now, on that basis we would be more than happy to send you in the direction of a good watering hole to assist in your mental rehabilitation after todays polaxing! so, that said, feel free to give either of us a call! lol! Port/Adelaide game next week will be full of emotion also. Actually flying in there next sunday so I'm sure the place will be going off!

 

[Cartman88]

Port ultra impressive today.

I think the Kangaroos have done incredibly well with a weak list this year - in saying that today answered the question on why they were not getting much respect even after finishing 5th.

Sets up a very interesting match in Adelaide next week and I am sure there will be a slight over-reaction to this weeks results when the lines come out - I do rate Port Adelaide a big chance against an Adelaide side that may start doubting themselves.

St Kilda now loom as the warm favourite for the premiership - they will probably be into $2.30 or maybe even less.

Looks like I will be getting my hands on some Grand Final tickets - disappointed I won't be watching Brisbane but might be good just enjoying the day without the stress of giving a crap who wins and loses !!

 

[MrChristo]

Pawa, I'm sure you made the effort to get to the game mate

He'd be the only one that did, bomber!!!!

Did you see the crowd??? Was only about half full!!! Terrible effort really...Maybe they knew what was coming

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Yeah...yeah...get it all out of your systems boys!! :gf:

Anyone else wanna lay the boots in to a shattered Roos supporter?? Man....I haven't felt this bad leaving a stadium since the '98 Grand Final.

I'm still numb.....and I don't care about football anymore.


......I'll just have anotherr drink and all of this will be a bad dream I can wake up from

:142crying

 

[beast2]

Haven't posted in a while but have still been reading of all the comments and having a bet. The last 4-5 weeks have been an absolute disaster from a betting point of view but I did win my work tipping comp by 1 over last years winner.

2 close games and 2 thrashings to begin the finals.

St Kilda were awesome on Saturday Night. They are clear favorites now for the flag.

What a week it is going to be here in Adelaide with a local derby final. These games have a huge build up during the regular season so i can only imagine what it is going to be like this week.

Starting getting texts from my friend a Port supporter at three quarter time today saying how Port were going to beat us.

It's gonna be one hell of a game and I can't wait for it.

Craig