afl finals

[gloveski]

season to date 35-28

essendon -23.5 (if fletcher plays)
the serious stuff begins i feel essendon will bounce back,fletcher and barnard to big inclusions experience in finals should get essendon over the line


Adeliade +6.5

just feel adeliade hold a huge edge in the midfield carlton without ratten spells danger and mckay has a virus and will still be feeling the effects come saturday


Brisbane -23.5

Have covered the spread at home nearly everyweek (missed out by 1/2 a point last week),cant see them not covering two weeks in a row, revenge factor here after Port thumped them in the Ansett cup.Brisbane also has more finals experience and holds more options upforward, midfield the key to both teams.

Sydney +2.5 (if kelly,dunkley & williams all play)

Hawthorn with six changes and key forwards in Barker and Dixon in doubt.Hawthorn have held closed sessions so I think a few players will not come up.Holland is a big risk as he favoured his shoulder in the vfl the week before.I said i would not back Sydney again so beware i may be a bit bias

goodluck to all

goodluck to all

 

[Cartman88]

I can't say that there are any standout plays in the AFL this weekend. The one bet I expect to have is:

Essendon -23.5 vs Richmond.

This is based 100% on gut feeling as based on form it is not a great play. I agree with Gloveski that the time has come for Essendon to flex their muscles. They have every reason to perform well and at their best I still believe they can blow Richmond away. I will also be waiting for confirmation that Fletcher plays as he will be key in shutting down the Richmond forwards.

 

[AussieVamp2]

adelaide interesting

can they win 3 in a row?

 

[beast2]

Here are my 1st week AFL Final Plays:
(I know the first game has finished but I will post my analysis anyway.)

Game 1: Essendon -25.5
This is the game where Essendon show the form that will win them another premiership. Don't read anything into last week as Essendon will show why they should be premiership favorite. Essendon have stepped up when required this year with incredible comebacks against North Melbourne and Sydney.
Richmond have done extremely well to finished 4th but just don't have the finals experience to match it with Essendon.


Game 2: Adelaide S/U 2.20
A very even game which either team can win if they play their best football. Don't take any notice of Adelaide's effort last week as it was supposed to be nothing game as they never dreamed St Kilda would beat Hawthorn. Carlton on the other hand played a tough game against Geelong and will lose Ratten through injury, a big loss. Adelaide have beaten Carlton twice this season. This time though I don't think Bradley will line up on Mcleod. I rate this as a 50/50 game and the odds on Adelaide are value.

Game 3: Port +24.5
This game will be a lot closer than some people think. Brisbane are on a 13 game winning streak while Port are on a 6 game winning streak. I believe Brisbane at home will win but not by enough to cover the spread. Also, there is the possibility that there could be a storm in Brisbane around game time thus lending too a close match. Ports last game in Brisbane was lost in the 2nd Quarter when they just went to sleep, this time they won't let up.

Game 4: Sydney S/U 2.00
Hawthorn started the season winning 8 straight and since have won 5 out of 14. Sydney on the other hand played well before a last minute loss to Essendon folowed by a loss to Melbourne the following week. Sydney should be favorites for this game on form but there has been a over reaction to Hawthorn making 6 changes to bring back some of their star players.

Craig

 

[Cartman88]

Essendon 113
Richmond 43

Essendon finally showed what they are capable of when they play with intensity and Richmond were not up to it.

I will probably take the profit and run this weekend as I am not that keen on the remaining matches. If anything perhaps Adelaide looks slighly over the odds.

 

[gloveski]

dissapointing 2-2 for the first week of finals