Originally posted by Cartman88:
Hi Guys,
Here are my thoughts on Round 4.
Richmond vs Collingwood Fri 7.40pm AEST
I see this game as 50/50 and so do the bookies. For that reason I am going to leave it alone. Collingwood will be fired up after there big win last week and I expect them to perform well, but their ability to stop the big Richmond forwards is a concern. There are a few rumours going around that Matthew Richardson may not play which would weaken Richmond as well.
-- Yeah, yuck. We wonder if Richardson growing a brain, too.
Sydney vs Essendon Fri 7.40pm AEST
You can get up to $1.65 on Essendon, which from memory is the highest head to head odds I have seen for them in the past 12 months. Whilst Essendon are missing Matthew Lloyd (suspended) they have more than enough talent to cover him. Many people are saying Sydney are the form side of the AFL at the moment, which is fair enough. But they have only played Adelaide/West Coast/Kangaroos and these teams are not exact travelling well. Essendon are under some pressure to perform and a hungry Essendon team is generally too much for any side to cope with.
-- Yes, with line moving Essendon way, certainly worth considering -8.5 Anders had? Very interesting.
Carlton vs Adelaide Sat 2.10pm AEST
On paper Carlton just about have to win this game which is reflected by the $1.15 odds on offer. They have three big name players returning to their side. Adelaide are looking a big chance for the woodden spoon and from what I hear there is plenty of turmoil at the club. However I am not fully convinced about Carlton this year yet, and couldn't confidently take the -34.5 to cover the spread. There is also a chance they may suffer the "let down syndrome" following the big win over Essendon.
-- Agreed, hate laying points in the AFL to start with, in general, except with super teams - and Carlton isn't, due to how the game is played. Not sure winning by 6 goals is in the game plan - then again, Adelaide could again be annihilated at Optus if week off has helped the old boys and Kouta - see what it is by game time.
Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Sat 2.10 AEST
This game is usually a fiery encounter resulting in some type of brawl and some type of suspension. At the start of the year I rated Brisbane and they were 2nd fav for the flag. But they have been very disappointing and even their coach publicly said they were over-rated. Brisbane have a very poor record playing in Melbourne which tilts the scales slightly in the favour of the Western Bulldogs. But the bookies don't have much between them and once again I can't find any value.
-- Well, I still don't rate the Bulldogs, but Brisbane have got worse, it seems, which is odd.
Fremantle vs West Coast Sat 7.40pm AEST
The local derby for the WA sides. Last season this game resulted in all sorts of suspensions and fines following a real bloodbath. West Coast have dominated this match for years until Fremantle scraped a 1 point win last year. That win will give them plenty of confidence and I favour Fremantle very slightly in another close match. I think the $2.20 for Fremantle is worth a dabble.
-- Pass, at the moment. Eagles is first thought, but will look later.
Port Adelaide vs St Kilda Sat 7.40pm AEST
Port Adelaide are tough to beat at home as the $1.35 odds would indicate. St Kilda are a much improved side this year under the coaching of Malcolm Blight and I wouldn't be surprised to give this a shake. I have sene up to $3.25 for St Kilda which is slightly over the odds.
-- 3.25? Yeah, still want more than that on them I think.
Geelong vs Kangaroos Sun 2.10 AEST
Geelong are a strong "early season" side but they have struggled to put four solid quarters together in one match so far. They are focusing on doing that this week, and if they can I think they will get home. The Kangaroos are under real pressure to perform following a 0-3 start to the year and they are nearly back at full strength. If they are going to show something than this will be the game. Geelong are around $1.50 with Kangaroos at $2.50, and I think these prices are about right.
-- Be hard for woeful Kangas to beat them here.
Hawthorn vs Melbourne Sun 2.10pm AEST
These are two sides which I am keen to back at the moment. Just my luck they are playing each other !!!! I do favour Hawthorn though and will back them at $1.80 or above (which is available).
-- A game well worth watching, and investigating more, if Hawthorn wins - Parkin has perhaps made them the real deal.
SUMMARY OF PLAYS:
Betting the house on Essendon at $1.65
Betting the car on Hawthorn at $1.80
Betting one of my chihuahuas on Fremantle at $2.20
Betting my other chihuahua on St Kilda $3.25
Gees what I am going to do with the wife. Oh well easy come easy go. Betting the wife on a four team parlay (around 20/1). Holy god if that one gets up I will have 20 wives to contend with. Cancel that play.
Good luck to everyone !!!!
