AFL picks round 5

[gloveski]

record so far 4-6

Could be a very interesting round this one we will get to see if some teams are genuine top 8 material sides like richmond,bulldogs,port adelaide still have their doubters..only time will tell

carlton vs st.kilda optus oval saturday
pick carlton -26.5 (If Harvey does not play)
Carlton don't loose 3 in a row at optus but having said that St.Kilda need a victory badly.Strong rumors that Harvey for St.Kilda has a slight hamstring strain and may not play if he does not play I can't see the saints holding the line but if he does count this as a no bet,expecting blues to win a tight one if Harvey plays. May have to wait until just before the game to find out.

W.Bulldogs vs Hawthorn at colonial stadium saturday
Bulldogs +10.5
Initially was leaning towards Hawthorn but with the new campaign by the Bulldogs to gain new members (showing key players in opposition guernseys) & Brad Johnson playing game 150 expect bulldogs to cover the line in what could possibly be the game of the round, expect a high scoring affair

Brisbane vs Fremantle Gabba sunday
Pick Brisbane -34.5
Brisbane will be out to silence some critics who are claiming they are overrated (including their coach),they are a completely different side at home and I am expecting a Brisbane Victory by 50+ if the weather is fine

Melbourne vs Sydney m.c.g sunday
Pick Melbourne -14.5
Going against my own team Sydney.Don't play there best football at the m.c.g and with fitness worries over Stafford and Williams + I am certain that Schwass is not 100%,aswell as loosing Barry & Warfe to injury just can't see them covering the line, only downside for melbourne is with all the politics going on within the club some players may not be switched on.

Good Luck to all

 

[Cartman88]

Hi Guys,

Last week ended up a very solid round so fingers crossed it can continue into this weekend. We are now into Round 5 and finally have some reliable form to assess. Here are my thoughts:

WEST COAST VS RICHMOND Fri 8:40pm AEST

Richmond has not beaten West Coast at Subiaco since 1987, infact the closest they have come is 14 points. But I think that can be virtually disregarded as this is possibly the weakest West Coast in recent years. Richmond see this game as an opportunity to show everyone they are a serious contender in 2001. Richmond are 3-1 for the year including wins over Brisbane and Melbourne. West Coast are 2-2 but have only beaten St Kilda and Fremantle. Despite the long trip to Perth I think that Richmond at $1.95 are a solid bet.

CARLTON VS ST KILDA Sat 2:10pm AEST

I think Gloveski has summed this game up fairly nicely. Carlton will lack no motivation and they need to perform this week following a disappointing loss to Adelaide. If St Kilda lose Robert Harvey (which seems the case) then they are going to struggle to matchup especially in the midfield. Carlton should win this game comfortably but I don't rate them enough to confidently back them giving 26 points start. No play for me here.

BULLDOGS VS HAWTHORN Sat 2:10pm AEST

Every week I say how much I like the look of Hawthorn this year and most weeks I have tipped them. They are the only unbeaten side left in the AFL and I expect them to edge out the Wstn Bulldogs in what should be a close game. However I can't say Hawthorn are good value at $1.60 this week so I will leave this game alone from a betting point of view.

ADELAIDE VS KANGAROOS Sat @ 7:40pm AEST

These sides have fairly similar records in 2001 as they were both 0-3 after Round 3 but then managed a win in the mud last week. Whilst the Kangaroos are not same side they were 2 years ago they still have the class, experience, and height to beat what is basically an average Adelaide team. I think $2.00 is a decent price for the Kangaroos all things considered.

BRISBANE VS FREMANTLE Sun 2:10pm AEST

If Brisbane play to their potential, and play how they normally do at the GABBA, then they will win this game by a big margin, and certainly by enough to cover the 33 point spread. Following the coaches plea to play this game for the fans, my gut feeling is Brisbane might fire here. But logically I can't confidentially back Brisbane on their dismal form in the past 2 weeks. The other factor here is the weather. I live not far from Brisbane and it has been really pouring down. The ground will probably be muddy which could lead to low scoring.

GEELONG VS PORT ADELAIDE Sun 2:10pm AEST

This game is between 2 "middle of the road" sides trying to show they can do more than just scrape into the Top 8. I have been quite impressed by Port Adelaide this year, They won the pre-season Ansett Cup and have started the year 3-1. Their only loss was to Essendon but they showed some good spirit in the 4th quarter of that game. Geelong on the other hand have not shown anything special and are 2-2 so far. Their wins were only against West Coast and St Kilda. I think Port Adelaide are worth a bet at $2.10 but also think that a better price may be available closer to kick-off.

MELBOURNE VS SYDNEY Sun 2:10pm AEST

I think the bookies have this game about right with Melbourne around $1.50 and Sydney around $2.55, so no bets for me here. Having a quick look at the form, I lean slightly towards Melbourne to cover the 14 point spread based on Sydneys poor MCG form and injury concerns.

A word of warning for the entire weekend in relation to poor weather. It generally leads to lower scoring because the ball is harder to handle, the players are often bunched in the same part of the field, and obviously goals are harder to come by. It is not always a good idea to back sides giving away more than 25 points (4 goals can be alot in the wet).

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:

Richmond @ $1.95 to bt West Coast
Kangaroos @ $2.00 to bt Adelaide
Port Adelaide @ $2.10 to bt Geelong

If I have any late thoughts due to weather or team changes I will let you know.

Good luck to everyone !!!!

 

[AussieVamp2]

well, that about sums it up nicely

my very first thought was freo this week, not sure why though, handicap perhaps if weather iffy, will see

but Lions have been abused a bit in the media too so may be keen and do get some goalscoring power back, bad puns notwithstanding

 

[Cartman88]

Nice start for the weekend:

RICHMOND 109 BT WEST COAST 70

 

[Anders]

Nice going Cartman, you and me both. I got the Stormers (-7.5) up over the Chiefs too so 2-0 on Fri nite/Sat morning, has cheered me up immeasurably

GL for the rest of the weekend all

 

[gloveski]

nice punting fellas take my hat of to you Anders as i backed the stormers at -7.5 good job buddy keep them winners coming & Richmond were a shoe in once Mcintosh pulled out just wish i knew this early enough.

Good luck to all for the rest of the weekend

 

[gloveski]

Saturdays results
Carlton 125
St.Kilda 92
No harvey and Carlton just covered the line

Hawthorn 155
W.Bulldogs 126
Bulldogs failed to cover the +10.5 line in a high scoring affair after hitting the lead at one stage in the 3rd quarter

So far 1-1 for the weekend

 

[AussieVamp2]

yeah, bigtime 'frontdoor' cover if you want to call it that

for the Blues, goal on the siren

 

[gloveski]

Yeah Aussievamp2 was lucky but due for a change of luck my way didn't realise it was on the siren as I didn't watch the game as my local team played at home this weekend.....getting itchy feet after deciding to have a year of to rejuvenate the body...the boys won a titanic stuggle by 9 points against a team that was previously undefeated (mind you it is only the 3rd round).

 

[ZigZag]

Going against the grain with these two pupps

Fremantle +32.5
Sydney +15.5

Looking for Bad weather and closer games. Also, Fremantle has played better teams and hung well within 32. The Gabba will be tough, but a blowout vs the pathetic kangarooooz doesn't convince me.

I believe Sydney is the better team, but after the collapse last game I am a little concerned. Melbourne has not been overpowering so looking for a close one.

[This message has been edited by ZigZag (edited 04-28-2001).]

 

[ZigZag]

Well, went 1-1

Fremantle was winning in the 4th and looked like an easy cover. What the hell happened they lost by 49 goal after goal after goal!!

 

[Cartman88]

ROUND 5 AFL RESULTS:

Essendon 103 bt Collingwood 95
Richmond 109 bt West Coast 70
Carlton 125 bt St Kilda 92
Hawthorn 155 bt Bulldogs 126
Adelaide 90 bt Kangaroos 75
Brisbane 171 Fremantle 122
Port Adelaide 148 bt Geelong 102
Melbourne 119 bt Sydney 104

Another very solid weekend. Nearly every match panned out the way I expected, the exception being Adelaide winning over the Kangaroos.

Unfortunately this was one of the games the money went on so ended up 2-1 with my selections, although I got a nice price ($2.20) just prior to kickoff on Port Adelaide.

The most encouraging aspect of the AFL at the moment is how most games are going according to form. Certainly this is a confidence booster as we tackle the coming rounds.

ZigZag,

You can feel very hard done by not to go 2-0 with your 2 picks. Fremantle and Sydney both with a handy lead in the 4th quarter and you would have thought have enough goals in hand to cover the spread.

 

[ZigZag]

Nice job Cartman.

Thought I had em both in the 4th qtr. I was thinking maybe Sydney would blow it, but with Fremantle up in the 4th with 32.5 to spare looked too good. Let's regroup and get em next week.

 

[gloveski]

Got some much needed winners on the weekend the roosters cost me a 7 team parlay anyway recap of my afl picks.
Carlton vs St.Kilda (No Harvey)
pick Carlton -26.5 win

W.Bulldogs vs Hawthorn
pick Bulldogs +10.5 loss

Brisbane vs Fremantle
pick Brisbane -34.5 win

Melbourne vs Sydney
pick Melbourne -14.5 win

3-1 for the weekens
3-2 for the round (including Anzac Day game)
7-7 For the season so far