AFL pre-season Wk. 1

[MrChristo]

I'll start this one up guys, just a few wandering early thoughts.

Obviously the main problem we have with these games is the lack of time to bet (an hour before gametime the game were priced up last year, yeah?)

Slightly interested in 3 games, depending on odds of course.

Like West Coast to beat Freo fairly handily. Look to have a far better team, coming off an impressive year, and also belted (a poor, admittedly) Collingwood in Perth by 100+ in the opening Wizzard Cup game last year.

Kangaroos to beat Geelong. I actually think Geelong will still go alright this year, but they have lost 16 of their last 17 interstate, and the Roos are always tough in Canberra (8/12). Both teams looking to take this game seriously, hoping to get PAWA's boys at ~1.70 mark, you reckon?

Adelaide + some points v. Port. I know there's a BIG talent difference, but there has been for a while, and Port haven't beaten the Crows by more than 25 in the last 7 games. (6 of those being 16 or less).
Adelaide always seem to take the pre-season seriously, winning 8 of their last 10, and being knocked out in Rd. 1 last year by eventual winner St. Kilda by only 13 points.


Can't wait for Friday night....Can't wait for the odds either...Hmmm, is that wrong?

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Christo...no interest in Richmond over the Magpies?? First game up with Wallace as coach. I reckon they'll come out firing for him to prove their worth.

Kangas @ $1.70 >> $1.90 will get my $$. We take this preseason stuff very seriously as we need the prizemoney and the added membership numbers it provides!!

 

[MrChristo]

Just spent a fair chunk of yesterday going through all the teams web sites and a heap of forums to get some team news etc., and I think you might be right on there PAWA.

Here's what I came up with........

Richmond win

Collingwood OUT: Buckley, Didak, Caracella, Lockyer....Nothing too major I guess, but yeah, Richmond will definately be keen. They plan to rotate a different captain each game, so from that point alone I guess we can assume they want to play as many as they can! (ie. keep winning).
Malthouse has a horrible pre-season record....Definately like Richmond to win this one.

Crows +

Out for Port are: P. Burgoine, James, Lade, Primus, Wilson. Crows seem to have a pretty full side to pick from.
Reasons above, like Adelaide to keep this one close. (Hoping for +15 or so?)

Melbourne win or +

Brisbane missing Voss, Black, Lappin, B. Scott, McGrath, Brown, Charman, White, McDonald and Copeland and Aker are both in doubt!!!
Melbourne have no real injury concerns, apprently the forward line has looked particularly good in the intra-club games, and Daniher has said they will be playing to win because rd. 2 will be in Melbourne v. either Carlton or Essendon, will assure a big crowd and some much needed $$ and membership.

Kangas

Seems Colbert is out, but he's the only one. Very keen to win. Reasons above.

Carlton win or +

Not entirely sold on this, but Jason and Mark Johnson both out for Essendon, and Solomon aswell. Pagan is very keen for the Blues to do well. They have no major injuries.

St. Kilda - just about anything!!

Smith, Crawford, Jacobs, Hay all out for Hawthron!
Gehrig ??, Hamill looks set to play for Saints.
Saints keen to keep winning....This one could.should get extremely ugly at the dome!!

Not playing West Coast....Worsfold 'concentrating on Round 1.' Plus from what I've read, the winner goes to Darwin to play, and the West Coast boys aren't real keen on that!
They look like they'll play a very young team, and Freo might be playing to win.

Wouldn't touch Doggies/Sydney with anyones $$.

How annoying is it waiting for some lines...Like a steering wheel in my pants, it's drivin' me nuts!

 

[bombercoops]

LOL! Like the 'steering wheel' comment. Like the roos the most this week but will not be pulling the trigger on anything myself until Rd. 1. Going to enjoy this years American football winnings a little while longer as i gave it back quick last year. The blues are probably worth a dabble also considering a couple of the outs for the dons, and Sheedy's motives of rotating his younger players and rookies, IMO.

 

[THE KOD]

.Like a steering wheel in my pants, it's drivin' me nuts!

............................................................

:scared :scared

I like Richmond.

KOD

 

[MrChristo]

Richmond 1.80 guys.

First play of the new season.

Hope you are with a book that covers the AFL Scott, should be a fun season ahead. :clap:

 

[THE KOD]

MrChristo

what was your AFL record last year ?

just wondering.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Found $1.90 at Tabsport.

Though, it occurred to me today, that this is going against one of my fundamental AFL betting rules.........






NEVER...EVER....bet any money on Richmond, no matter how tempting they seem!!!!

:mj07:


Alas, I'm like the mosquito drawn to the bug-zapper

"I can't help it...it's so beautiful"

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZCRACKLE-POP

 

[Cartman88]

Hi Guys,

Pre-season games are always slightly hard to match up ? so I tend to follow a similar method to MrChristo of looking for as much info as possible on team website and forums ? particularly relating to motivation for winning.

Most books have the Fri night odds available now which are approx:

Collingwood $1.90 Richmond $1.90
Fremantle $1.85 West Coast $1.95

Looking at the Double Markets on the www.tabonline.com.au website this gives a fair indication of what prices will be available on the Sat and Sun games ? and they should be something like this:

Wstn Bulldogs $1.80 Sydney $2.00
Hawthorn $4.50 St Kilda $1.20
Brisbane $2.10 Melbourne $1.75
Kangaroos $2.00 Geelong $1.80
Carlton $1.85 Essendon $1.95
Adelaide $2.20 Port Adelaide $1.65

I am leaving the Fri night games alone ? I originally had leaned towards Collingwood and West Coast but have been put off by a few players out and some coaches comments which indicate they are not overly concerned about the pre season results.

I had a strong lean towards the Wstn Bulldogs playing in Melbourne but was expecting around $1.90 ? if they happen to drift in the betting I might consider them.

St Kilda wins ? but I won?t be taking $1.20 in any pre-season game.

Melbourne is my best play this weekend if I can get $1.75 or more ? they have every reason to want to win this match and the coach has not been shy in talking about it ? Brisbane on the other hand basically have nothing to play for and have up to 10 players missing ? I attended a function a couple of weeks ago with the whole Brisbane team present and in talking to a few of the players it was fairly clear their focus is to reach Round 1 of the regular season in the best shape possible. Only concerns I have are a) will the heat in Cairns impact the Melbourne players who have just completed a four day Community Camp in the area and b) last year Brisbane were in a similar position of having nothing to play for in the first round of the Wizard Cup against Hawthorn down in Tasmania ? started around $3.50 - shot out to a 50 point lead early in the match and won in a canter.

I think the Kangaroos and Geelong match looks very even ? but playing in Canberra I have to give an edge to the Kangaroos - if they pay $1.95 or more then this will be a definate play.

On a side note it appears the Kangaroos are looking to play Archer on the ball or up forward this year which will be interesting to follow.

I am tempted by Carlton but looking for $2.10 or more to justify the play ? which I don?t think is going to happen.

I do like Adelaide to put up a really competitive showing against Port Adelaide ? the opening line will probably be around +7.5 but gut feeling is the line might push out another 2 or 3 points by Sun afternoon ? so I am going to wait with this one.

 

[MrChristo]

Wstn Bulldogs $1.80 Sydney $2.00
Hawthorn $4.50 St Kilda $1.20
Brisbane $2.10 Melbourne $1.75
Kangaroos $2.00 Geelong $1.80
Carlton $1.85 Essendon $1.95
Adelaide $2.20 Port Adelaide $1.65

Thanks for those indications, Cartman.

Agree with nearly all of what you say, but I don't think I could take Melbourne as favs up there.
If those lines hold true(ish) then Kangas @ 2.00 is a definate play, and St. Kilda -30ish will be too.

Off the top of my head, Scott, I think I ended right on the +20 unit mark (betting level 1 units), and I'm pretty sure every one of us finished in the black.

Go Tiges! (Oh god, that hurts to say!)

 

[MrChristo]

Melbourne 1.42 @ Centrebet!!...Brisbane 2.70

The words, 'Good ****ing lord!', spring to mind....But for the more easily offended, I'll go with, 'YIKES!!!!!'

 

[bombercoops]

All the best to you guys on Richmond, but I can honestly say that the only bet that seems appealing to me is for them to be crowned with the wooden spoon. Wallace will turn this club around to some extent, but I can't see it happening any time soon. GL on the play though and I'll be pulling for you guys.

 

[Cartman88]

Well - any thought of backing the Wstn Bulldogs or Melbourne are out the window after opening up very short.

I am going to stick with Kangaroos as my main play for the weekend - and rather than waiting for all the books to open their market on this game I am going to take the nice odds available at Betfair.

Outright price is around $2.27 after commissions
Points start (+12.5) is around $1.88 after commissions - and I will be taking the points for 2 units.

Will also consider Adelaide but will hold off until Sun for this.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Well some things just don't change....Richmond still Suck!! 25 up halfway through the last quarter and then total submission :flush:

So much of their disposal was comical at times. Mind you, Collingwood didn't impress me much either!! Those early draft picks showed plenty of promise though.



Bring on the Roos game.

 

[bombercoops]

Looking forward to the day the tigers can run out a game. 25 points up and lose! The streak continues..

 

[bombercoops]

Just saw that the eagles snuck home also. 2 tight games to open up the season!

 

[MrChristo]

Yep...Long season for Collingwood and Richmond.

Comical is an apt word, PAWA, but the only reason Collingwood were even in the game was that Tarrant was consistantly (and rightly so!) flogging the young rookie Jackson.

Anyway, taken St. Kilda -39.5 @ 1.95 today.

 

[MrChristo]

Pretty ordinary start to the year!

Kangaroos @ 2.30 looks a good bet.

Adelaide out to +11.5, hopefully get another point or two by game time.

 

[Cartman88]

Kangaroos looking solid early - lead by 13 (could easily be 30) and are dominating general play.

Now that Adelaide have drifted out to +11.5 will be playing 1 unit on them also.

 

[bombercoops]

Nice call on the roos fellas! Good way to start the season for north paw! Dogs showed some early form for you too christo. Now for the dons...