AFL Rd. 10

[MrChristo]

18-15' (+1.60)

Geelong -30.5

Geelong have won the last 8 meetings at home by an av. of 36 points.
they are on an 11-0 run at home, winning by an av. of 35 points.
Their 2 losses this year have been @ West Coast (no shame at all), and to Melbourne in a game where they had more shots at goal.
4 of their 6 wins have been by more than this spread, the 2 that weren't were as underdogs!
Take out Freo's BIG win over Collingwood and they have been ordinary at best.

Geelong are the best scoring team in the comp, av. nearly 115 points a game. Their midfield is dominant, having the most inside 50's per game, and alowing the 4th least. (2nd lest over their last 5)
Their backline is solid, allowing a shot only every 2.12 times the ball enters the 50. (Only Sydney and West Coast better).

...This has been a huge waste of time really...Should have just said Geelong are far superior in all area's!
Forecast of a cold day and some showers will only help the Cats, they won by 50 last year in atrocious conditons.
Don't care how much of a pasting Freo get in the media this week, Geelong are simply too good at home for anyone at the minute.

 

[MrChristo]

Adelaide -27.5

The Crows midfield and backline have been superb all season, and if they kick goals, they win!
There has been some doom and gloom about the Crows forward line, but I don't think it's as bad as people are making out. They've topped 100 in 4 of the 9 games...3 low scoring games against West Coast, Collingwood and Kangaroos is no disgrace, and interesting to note that probably their 2 worst performances (v. Brisbane and Melburne) were both a night.
Either way, Calrlton has allowed the most goals for the season (155), so if they can't score this week then I give up!
The Blues form has been terrible, losing their last 3 by 85, 70 and 18 (but were 46 pints down at 3/4 time before Melbourne eased right off).
The Crows have the 3rd most inside 50's for the year which will give them plenty of chances to score, and they might finally earn some respect with a big win here.

 

[MrChristo]

West Coast -20.5

Right up there with Geelong as the best team in the comp, and Port are a long way behind.
There was an obvious lack of intensity last week from the Eagles and I expect them to make up for it in a big way back at home this week.
Ports form has been poor, having won only 3 games, against 3 struggling sides, all at home.
West Coast on the other hand are 8-1 this sesason, and are 10-0 at home in their last 10, with an av. winning margin of 39 points!
port have a reasonable record in the west, but they were beaten by Freo this season by 35, and although they defeated the Eagles here back in Rd. 1 last year they had 12 more inside 50's for the game.
West Coast's midfield is a well recognised strength, but their defense has been superb all year, allowing a league best 187 shots, only Sydney have allowed fewer inside 50's, and they allow a shot at goal every 2.25 times the ball enters their 50, which is second best to Adelaide.

West Coast's 5 home 'victims' this season have all been traveling better than Port and with Judd back, they just have too many weapons for the Power to cover.

 

[Cartman88]

My plays for this weekend:

Melbourne -5.5 vs Richmond (2 units)
Adelaide -27.5 vs Carlton
Wstn Bulldogs +3.5 vs Essendon (2 units)

 

[MrChristo]

You don't think Richmond are a huge chance, Cartman?

Forward line of Richo, Stafford, Simmons on Miller, Nicholson, Ferguson?

If they get their fair share of the ball, they should kick a very big score!

 

[Cartman88]

Have to be impressed with Richmond's start to the season but I still think their form is slightly misleading.

Every side they have beaten is currently sitting 8th or lower ....
Hawthorn
Wstn Bulldogs
Fremantle
Port Adelaide
Carlton
Collingwood
Brisbane

When they have met 2 of the 3 premiership favourites they were beaten by 62 points vs Geelong and by 68 points vs St Kilda.

I am expecting Melbourne to win the battle in the midfield and they have no lack of options up forward either - Neitz Yze Green Holland Davey all capable of a few goals.

Bowden is a huge out for Richmond.

 

[bombercoops]

Getting back in to the action this week after a few weeks off. Jumping on the dees with you tomorrow night cartman as I also think Richmond are a little over-rated. Can see them crumbling as the season progresses.
Big clash this week for us christo. How are you feeling about it mate? I'm guessing you've put the needles and thread away for the time being considering the roos have put the brakes on. Suddenly we have some kind of contest on our hands. Should be a good game on sunday and I reckon the boys from windy hill may be able to sneak out a win. Your thoughts??

 

[MrChristo]

Yeah, fair point on the Tiges guys. Just don't think Melbourne are travelling that well either, and their backline is a huge problem...which, given they've allowed the second most inside 50's for the year (better only than Collingwood), shuold be a HUGE problem tonight against the Richmond forward line.

Very big game in the context of our bet this one, bomber! Form says the Doggies easily (imo!)...3 wins to you guys, Freo in Melbourne and 2 teams that are (or were at the time anyway!) rock bottom.
All of our losses have been by top 8 teams, and I'd think we'd have a huge pace and fitness advantage over you bunch of old timers!
You wouldn't have seen many games lately? Lloyd is simply terrible right now...and in fact (now I look!), the forward line has been their biggest problem. They score only every 2.17 entries into the 50, which is 15th.
The only thing that concerns me is that the inside 50's for the two teams are virtually identical over the last 5 games, so IF you do get the forward line up and running we might be in some trouble...But really, that is a huge if!
Put it this way, I was very surprised to see the Bombers as favs this week.

Woof Woof!! lol!

 

[MrChristo]

Dogs 2.15

Odds are too good to ignore! Like I said, I was surprised to see Essendon as fav's, so 2.15 is very generous indeed.

(I still reckon 2.25 is great value for the Tiges tonight, but I think I'll steer clear.)

 

[bombercoops]

I knew you would be all over your dogs this week. I look for it to be a solid game 'C'. Lloyd needs to start finding some form for us to compete week in, week out.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Dogs 2.15

Odds are too good to ignore! Like I said, I was surprised to see Essendon as fav's, so 2.15 is very generous indeed.

(I still reckon 2.25 is great value for the Tiges tonight, but I think I'll steer clear.)

Agree!!

Steer clear of this one. Melbourne are a class above any of the teams Richmond have beaten. They were shown up when they played the genuine class teams in Geelong and the Saints!!

Would'nt be surprised if the Tigers won....but I ain't opening the wallet for this one. :lol:


***answer your phone Coops!!** oke

 

[MrChristo]

Richmond 2.25

Neitz out. Too big of a price.....SCARED!! :scared

 

[MrChristo]

Nice work lads.

Never in doubt.

Could be some nice weeks ahead going against our 'favourite' team, methinks!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Man....seeing Brown break his leg like that just about made me chuck-up!! :mj02:

Poor bastard. There goes Richmond's chances of making the top 8.

 

[bombercoops]

There goes Richmond's chances of making the top 8.[/QUOTE]

LOL! Enjoyed that one mate as it is probably true. The tigers unravel with the best of them as the season progresses on an all too frequent basis. The only thing is, there is so much inconsistency in the comp this year that they will probably manage to fall in to the eight. Everyone is on the dogs today and I can understand why, however, I'm going to jump behind my team today and take the dons @1.85 for a unit for chits and giggles. They're about due to play a decent 4 quarter game of footy- or at least a decent 4th quarter!

 

[bombercoops]

Happy to see the boys run out a game for a change. I think the dons kicked as many points by half time as they have averaged for an entire game this year- or near enough anyway. Very interesting season and you guys are definitely right about the dogs this year. Was tempted to take the blues as if my memory serves me well, they usually match up well against the crows and have had some tight tussles over the past few years with the exception of a few. Taking dogs looks like a decent format from here on out.