Interesting you've got the Lions down as a play, Pawa, 'cause I just finished looking at my numbers, and, yeah, amazingly Brisbane have had more inside 50's in the last 5 games than Freo!! :scared: ...would never have believed that!
Also just finished watching the last time they met, and although Freo won by 59 points, it was tight until HT, but both Keating and Michael got injured during the game, so they were down to 2 men on the bench.
It's definately worried me out of taking the Dockers this week, but not sure I'll be on the platform, ticket in hand either!
A quick rant on the Crows, if I may....
...The rediculous article on the AFL site about Goodwin wanting the Crows to be 'more attacking' this week!! Over the last 5 games they have had 12.2 more inside 50's per game than their opponents!! How much more ****ing attacking do you want to be??!! How about you just admit you don't have a forward line...better still, do something about it! They've kicked a goal only every 4.5 inside 50's for the year, and every 5.5 over their last 5 games. Crazy.
Our problem, of course, is how the hell do we pick when they will kick goals? Only once this season have they lost when they've kicked 10+ goals, but there simply doesn't seem (to me anyway!) to be any rhyme or reason as to when they will score and when they won't.
Anyway, given how slippery the conditions were in Adelaide on Saturday night 2 weeks ago (Port v. Ess.), I think anyone would be brave to take the Crows minus any points, and it pisses me off, 'cause given all logic, they should belt the Bombers off the park!
Anyway...sorry about that, but if anyone out there has any clue as to when the Crows will score, please, let us know!
Geelong -21.5
Huge over reaction to last weeks results. Geelong had 6 more shots than Freo, and really should have won, and although the 'Pies are off 2 solid wins, now they face the best team at their favourite venue.
The Cats have won their last 9 games at the dome, with only one win being by less than 23 points! (v. St. Kilda). The other games they have won by an av. of over 48 points.
Geelong won their last meeting at the dome by 29 points, but had 14 more scoring shots and dominated the game.
Over their last 5 games Geelong have av. 8.4 more inside 50's than their opp, and Collingwood av. 9.6 less than their opp!!
Their attack is infinately better (Geelong are the highest scoring team in the league!, and Collingwood are the 3rd lowest), their defense is better, they will get so much more of the ball that they really should win by a very large margin!
(Now watch them come out and kick 10.25
Sydney (1.80)
Sydney have copped their usual media spray during the week, but there is a world of difference b/w playing St. Kilda at the dome, and then Carlton a week later!
The Saints have allowed the fewest inside 50's in the comp (just 45 a game...+7.1), the Blues have allowed 55.4 a game over their last 5 @ -10.2!!)
Carlton have allowed the most points for the year, allowed 100+ in all but 2 games, and given up at least 23 shots in every game so far.
Of course, Sydney aren't exactly scoring machines themselves, but surely they'll have enough in them to get over the worst team in the comp atm.
Either way, getting 1.80 against Carlton is pretty generous.
West Coast -17.5
Richmond have played 3 top 8 teams this year and been beaten by 62, 68 and 57. They have been very over-rated by the draw (as some of the more astute members pointed out last week! :thumb: ), and now look to be struggling, esp. with the loss of Brown.
The Eagles loss at the MCG v. Collingwood was due to lack of intensity, but you'd expect them to be a lot more ready for this game.
West Coast are far superior in all areas of this game...I'll give them one more chance in Melbourne!
I reckon you can throw in the Saints at decent odds of 1.40, Pawa. Port really don't look like it atm.
Not sure I'd be too keen to write your own Kangas off in this game either. Melbourne are very weak defensively.
They've had less inside 50's than their opponents in 6 of the 10 games so far, and only had more shots than their opp in 5 of 10!
I see the Kanga's pretty similar stat-wise to Sydney, and the Swans had 4 more inside 50's and 1 more shot than Melbourne. If the Kanga's can make the most of their chances then they have to be a decent show...don't they?
