AFL rd. 12.

MrChristo

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20-21' (-2.64)

Adelaide +15.5

Have to disagree with bomber on the Crows. I think they are every bit as good as where they sit, and 15's for the flag are tremendous odds! ;)
Over the last 5 games they have averaged 14.4 more inside 50's than their opp!! and they also have the league's best defense. As I said last week, when they kick goals, they win.
I'm actually prepared to say that I think we've over-rated Geelong a bit. Wins over Essendon, Port, Carlton and the Kanga's are nothing too great, and the Bulldogs and St. Kilda both sustained injuries during the game.
They've been beaten handily by the top 2 teams, and now two lesser teams in a row.

Adelaide have been beaten by less by Melbourne and the Eagles...their other 2 losses were one horrible quarter v. Dogs, and a loss to Brisbane where they had over 20 more inside 50's!
Geelong have beaten the Crows only once in the last 10 meetings by more than 11 points, and the Crows have won 3 of their last 5 @ Geelong.

Think Adelaide will win, but it should be close either way.

Sydney -14.5

How did we all get suckered in to thinking Freo are any good?
Since Rd. 3 they have been poor, and even their last win they allowed Geelong 6 more shots.
Their defense has been terrible over the last 5 games, allowing a shot every 1.70 entries into the 50, which is the worst in the league...and you can put that down to injuries.
Hadrill, Hayden, McParlin, Walker and Matthew Carr all out, now Johnson, McManus and Dunn out....AND...Polak and Dodd have been dropped for drinking during the week!!
The Sydney forward line is showing signs of life now with Hall, O"loughlan and Davis back in the line-up.
I know Sydney haven't been winning games by big margins, but they have had a tough draw so far and with Freo struggling to name a side, they should win this one fairly comfortably!
Sydney have won their last 5 meetings at the SCG by an av. of 33 points, inc. a 31 point win last year.
 

MrChristo

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West Coast obviously way too strong for the bombers, but wet weather forecast...big margins are no good anyway.

Everything I have points to a Hawthorn win!!...But I think we can excuse the Saints last month, having played Geelong, West Coast, Adelaide and Port off a hiding (who they should have beaten anyway. 10 more inside 50's and 2 more shots). Wish it was at the dome, but will stay away at the 'G.

Brisbane -22 looks to be the ovbious bet of the week, but something just doesn't seem right. Brisbane travelling the second week in a row, off a Perth trip, and they are still playing pretty poorly.
As bad as Carlton have been, they've only lost 3 games all year by more than this, and one was last week, just, by a team playing better footy than the Lions?? Dunno.

Would have been all over the Dogs if it wasn't for injuries! :( Grant, Morgan and esp. Giansircusa out will definately hurt. I still don't think Port are playing well, but their forward line should have a picnic if they can get enough of the ball.

Thoughts on the Kanga's game PAWA? Again, everything pointing to the Tiges, but still not sure I could take them as favs with Brown gone.
 

Cartman88

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Some interesting matches this weekend:

Would happily take West Coast -38.5 if the track was dry - but wet weather is a worry and enough to put me off a play.

Feel exactly the same as MrChristo on the Sat afternoon game - my numbers clearly favour Hawthorn +19.5 but I was really disappointed with their effort last week and gut feeling is that the Saints bounce back this week - but no way I am taking St Kilda -17.5 at the MCG especially with Hamill still out.

Was expecting something like Brisbane -18.5 and would have almost backed them at that line with Lappin named - but the line is about 4 points higher - whilst Brisbane looked good last week they were helped by Freo being so awful - other thing is the travel factor - have enough doubt to stay away from this one.

The bookies have reacted to Port's performance last week and on the surface are probably not representing value - however if they can repeat their intensity from last week I think they can do some real damage to a Wstn Bulldogs team that is depleted with injuries.

Port Adelaide -25.5 vs Wstn Bulldogs (2 units)

Can't stand the thought of taking Sydney -14.5 under any circumstances but it is the right play here - everyone is talking about the "good Freo" and the "bad Freo" - but the "good Freo" is not that great with only one win over 20 points in the past 10 weeks and injuries are starting to take their toll.

Sydney -14.5 vs Fremantle (1 unit)

Adelaide +15.5 are one of the bets of the season for me - they are travelling along superbly with 3 solid wins in a row and except for Johncock are basically injury free - many are doubting their place on the ladder but there is no reason why they can't finish top four this year - playing at Skilled is no problem for Adelaide who have won 3 of their past 5 there - Geelong have lost their last 2 against Freo and Collingwood - King is out of the side with a calf injury - if this match goes to form Adelaide are a huge chance and should at least cover the points.

Adelaide +15.5 vs Geelong (4 units)

Haven't looked at the other 2 games yet but fairly keen on Melbourne.

Also looking to do some more research on the halftime/fulltime double betting option - in the first 8-9 rounds there was numerous games where the team leading at halftime ended up losing - the bookies seem to have reacted to this and the odds on favourite/favourite seem more generous now (for example $1.90 instead of $1.80) - in the last 2 rounds every team leading at halftime has gone on to win - might just be a lucky coincidence but will follow with interest.
 

PAWAQATSI

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I'm just blank about the Roos, Christo. Don't know what to think of them anymore. How will the Tigers go without Brown?

Would think that Hawthorn are due for a good one and playing the Saints outdoors with points is the lean. Not sold on Port so happy to get 4 1/2 goals with your Bullies. If they get plenty of shots they should keep it close.

Keen on Adelaide and also like the Magpies getting point on Monday versus the Demons.
 

PAWAQATSI

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Hail and rain in Perth today so maybe the Bombers can keep it within the +40 odd on offer! Perhaps following the trend I mentioned last week about teams that get thumped.

I'm happy to go over 15.5pts which is about 2 minutes work for this Eagles outfit at home. I expect it will become a boring game after the first quarter.
 

MrChristo

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Well, PAWA, the line is down to 33.5 at Centrebet, and the radar doesn't show that much rain about...certainly not the downpour/thunderstorms that is 'expected'.

Still 3 hours away, but very tempted now by the Eagles. Fletcher out for Essendon.
 

bombercoops

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Can't believe the dons had more than a sniff with only minutes in the game remaining only to piss the game away late in typical bomber fassion. Regardless of the weather I thought they would get polaxed over there but it's good to see them play hard until the final siren- much unlike last weeks effort.
 

bombercoops

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Taking the hawks +17.5 and your roos pawa at +6.5. BTW, tell me you weren't sweating the end of that game last night with about 10 mins to go!
On another note, I can't believe how strange the season has been in regards to the ups and downs of teams week in, week out. Would be nice to be able to pick a few 'roughy's' on the ML. Maybe it's Carlton's turn to cause a little upset today! The way things are going anything seems possible.
 

MrChristo

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For those not watching the pre-game on Fox...

...Peter Burgoine out for Port.

Think I might have to book a late ticket on the Express ;)
 

bombercoops

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Dogs gave it a shake for ya christo. Glad to see the roos get a win. Was starting to wonder if I could hit a bet coming off a shocker last week. Interesting game at 'skilled' today with the cats kicking all of their goals at one end- and still getting the win! Nice cover for those of you on them though. Heading to the geelong game against brissy next week. Cartman, are you heading to the game?
 

Cartman88

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Bomber - not sure about whether I will be heading up for the Geelong game - I am probably playing poker up in Brisbane on Sunday arvo.

I will know for sure by Thursday - if I do end up going to the game would definately be keen to catch up and say gidday.
 

MrChristo

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Well, hoo-****ing-ray!! (And no, not for the Kanga's either! ;))

Looks like we all had a decent weekend. Hopefully a turning point in what has been a pretty ordinary season so far.

Very tempted by Collingwood tomorrow, Melbourne still pretty fragile down back, and the Pies backline should be able to contain Neitz and co.

But that's 16 hours away! :D
 

PAWAQATSI

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I like Collingwood getting the points for a small play, even if they are just playing games about Buckley making it onto the park. Collingwood are on a confidence roll right now and think they can beat anyone.
 

MrChristo

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Decided to go with the total for a smallish bet today.

over 198 (2.35) (0.74 units)
178-197 (3.90) (0.26 units = $ back)


Melbourne so far this season's game have been; 248, 180, 255, 154 (v. Syd), 272, 152 (v. Adel on a wet slippery night), 217, 202, 205, 196 & 160. They've topped 100 in all but 3 games.

Collingwood's scoring has been way up in their last 3, and they are playing a much more attacking style of game. They should have no problems scoring on a pretty dodgy Melbourne D.

Last 10 head to heads have been; 155 last year in the wet, then 210, 201, 191, 221, 167, 225, 216, 219, 190 @ 199.5.

An hour to go...better go stock the fridge ;)
 
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MrChristo

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**** football is frustrating this year.

29 shots for 10.19!...More and more often games are decided by simply which team can kick the straightest, and I think that's as much a reason as any that there have been so many 'upsets' this year.
There's no real way to predict it, you can only got with the %'s and hope a team can make the most of their oppertunities....Sorry, but it's really starting to annoy me. :cursin:
 
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