AFL Rd. 13.

[MrChristo]

22-21' (-0.66)

Adelaide -11.5

Richmond are 0-5 v. the top 8 so far, with losses of 62, 68, 57, 2 & 29 points.
Crows are a legitimate top 4 team.
We all know Adelaide's problems lay with their scoring, but in 3 games at the dome this year they have topped 100 twice and av. 96 points, Richmond have allowed 100+ in 3 of 5 indoors @ 107.6.
The Crows have won the last 7 meetings, 6 have been by more than this number, inc. a 52 point win last year at the same venue.

Won't make the mistake this week of not taking the obvious bet!


Port are giving too many points, but the Hawks look like they've fallen in a hole...
West Coast crap @ MCG, but Melbourne off a 5 day break...
Doggies should be too good, but injuries, a shocking defense and an inability to bury teams makes it tough to lay points...
Brisbane being hugely over-rated after 2 wins against 2 crap teams, but Geelong have a few injury worries and travel poorly...
Reckon I'll jump on the Roos, depending on who Freo gets back this week, but I still don't think your boys are any good, Pawa!!
They've only had more shots at goal than their opponent TWICE this season!!...Mind you, Freo have only 3 times.
Would have liked a couple more points...

 

[PAWAQATSI]

but I still don't think your boys are any good, Pawa!!

No arguement from me Christo!!! :mj07:

I can see a big "letdown" coming. Give the points on Freo, I reckon.

I'm running the system numbers tonight and I'll see what she throws up.

 

[Cartman88]

Good to see the games finally starting to following some type of reasonable logic last week - no major upsets and actually picked 8 from 8 for this first time this season.

There are a number of teams I am quite happy to bet against right now but unfortunately most of them are playing each other this week !!

Can only find one play I am really comfortable with this week and have to agree with MrChristo that Adelaide are the one - overall in really solid form and I think they totally outplayed Geelong last week other than 2 x 10 min bursts where Geelong kicked some quick goals - Richmond having their problems and have struggled against the class sides - if Adelaide kick straight they cover the spread.

Adelaide -11.5 vs Richmond (2 units)

I do like Melbourne to knock off the West Coast but disappointed with the price - if they get out to $1.95 or over I might have a serious look.

 

[MrChristo]

Kangas +16.5

This might be a huge sucker bet, but how do you lay 16 points with a team who have lost 4 of their last 5 by an av. of 31 points, lost their last 2 at home to 2 pretty ordinary sides and have an injury list as long as the Wizzers hair!
Over the last 5 games they have allowed a shot every 1.67 entries into 50, which is worst by a fair way. They've also kicked the fewest goals in the last 5 games.
The only player of note they get back this week is Polak, and now Pavlich was in a pretty serious car accidnt yesterday! Apparently he's ok physically, but how switched on for a footy game could you be?
Admittedly the Kangaroos aren't travelling all that well themselves, but given Freo have won only 2 games this year by more than this, one being against the bottom side, you'd think 3 goals is a fair bit to ask.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

:nooo:

Good luck Christo. You is goin' where angels fear to tread my man!!

 

[hawkeye]

Ade now -12'

 

[MrChristo]

Come on Pawa, have a little faith

Down to 14.5 @ Centrebet, so I'm happy I jumped on when I did at least.
Sav kicked 8 there last year...Thompson's turn this year!

I know it's going against the mod-Express too, but Geelong out to +21.5 now! It's got to be the biggest line movement I'e ever seen in AFL? 6 points and still over 24 hours to play. Obviously Geelong are going to be a couple of KPP down, but over 20 points to Brisbane??

 

[bombercoops]

Cats getting that many looks tasty! See brisbane walking away with the win here but it's hard to see them blowing the cats out. Tough one to call. Adelaide and the doggies getting it done as I write this which I'm sure will please you beast and christo! Richmond are about to let their solid early season positioning on the ladder unravel- again! Must be frustrating backing a team that continually shits itself towards the end of the season after a decent start to the year.
Jumping on the kanga's with you too christo!

 

[MrChristo]

King definately out, bomber...Not that I think that's such a big deal.

Nonoe of the emergencies played in the VFL yesterday, so doubts over Harley, but I've read that Mackie is the likely out.

PLENTY of rain about...want to get on a total, but I don't think Centrebet are gounna come to the party.

Geelong +21.5 might be worth a small shot.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Yeah, good wins to Adelaide and the Bulldogs last night. Jumped on both late after drowning my Demon sorrows yesterday!! Played the Doggies harder after thinking about Friday night's game and the time of year that we are at.

They younger struggling sides like the Hawks and Blues just seem to throw in the towel mid season as the injuries and low moral take their toll. These strugglers tend to "drop their bundle" for weeks on end before coming home late with a few upset wins when it is too late and conracts / careers are on the line.

The books don't react as much and there are winners to be had in the weeks ahead me feels.

Damp up in Brissy but hoping they can do the undermanned Cats comfortably.

Ya can't get me on the Roos today but I'll be cheering them home for ya!!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Gutsy call on the Roos Christo. Halfway thru the last quarter they look home and you collect the chocolates!!

Good call mate. Well done. :toast:

 

[MrChristo]

Bloody hell, do your boys know how to leave a bloke cringing....

Should have been over a hell of a lot earlier, but hey, not complaining.

Kangas clearly went over with a plan in mind, and it worked perfectly.

2-0, back in the black...but looking squarely down the barrel of having to visit the Kangaroo shop before too long! :cursin:

 

[bombercoops]

My thoughts exactly after todays kanga win christo! Don't think there's much doubt about the so-called "shopping excursion" set to take place in a few weeks when things are confirmed. Well, on the bright side I guess the $$ we cashed in on today after the roos win can contribute to a shoe lace a piece for pawa's favourite footy boots! Maybe I'll purchase the blue one's and you can tackle the white 'C'! I'm sure you'd be ecstatic about that paw- right?LOL.

 

[Cartman88]

I am down in Sydney this week so getting my plays in while I have access to a computer.

St Kilda -21.5
Collingwood +16.5 (2 units)

I am going to the Sydney/Collingwood game at Telstra Stadium - have been reading the book "How to act like a Complete W*nker" so I can join the Collingwood fans and cheer my bet home !!!!

 

[MrChristo]

lol!!

yeah, good luck with that Cartman!

Good to see we're on the same page again....I got St. Kilda -20.5, but was hoping for a few more points for the Pies, and will wait to see if they come. (Unlikely)

With only 2 games this weekend, I thought it might be fun to have a bit of a competition for next week....

...What will the spread be in the West Coast v. Carlton game be?

I'll take first stab at it.....-52.5

 

[MrChristo]

St. Kilda -20.5

The Saints will be back to near full strength this week, with only Hamill to miss again (and maybe Kositzke).
They have lost 4 of their last 6, but they've played some very good teams in that stretch. Now back indoors, facing an Essendon team who sits 14th with the second lowest %.
St. Kilda should be able to strangle the slow Bomber midfield, as they've allowed the fewest inside 50's for the year, and up forward Essendon don't appear to have any answers to Riewoldt or Gehrig.
St. Kilda have won the last 2 meetings at the dome by 34 and 35 points, so a similar margin will not surprise.

 

[MrChristo]

Going with a total tonight....

140-160 (3.50) [0.28 units = money back]
161+ (2.10) [0.72]

Effectively gives 1.50 for over 160.5....Pissed off I didn't find this earlier!
Last 4 head-to-heads have been 164 (here), 180 (here), 198, 179.
Only 2 of Sydney's last 10 games at this venue have been under 160, only one less than 140.
Both teams playing more attacking football lately. Might not be the highest scoring game ever, but 160 should be well within reach.