After a few weeks of hijaking PAWA's system thread, I think it's about time for me to post some thoughts and plays on the upcoming week on my own...
The important one straight up!!
Dogs v. Kangas...Virtually identical...Dogs actually have better number in their last 5, but they do score less outside the Dome (and allow 1 more I50 a game, but play slightly better defense!)...
...I guess with Cross, Griffen, Eagleton and Murphy out and Archer's milestone game the Kangas get the nod, but I still believe that the Doggies are the better team.
If I had to take either, I think you'd have to say that Kangas at 2.00 or better would be the play...but just too tough to call for me.
Was a little surprised about the St. Kilda price, tbh. Was all set to take the Tiges at +25ish...won't be near that high...so realistically I think the Saints are decent value @ 1.50+...but just have some nagging doubts.
Let-down off a big win, travel, Kosi out...
Just a note on St. Kilda...on Sunday they were the first team ALL SEASON who scored at better than a shot every 2.05 entries. They went at 1.88. The lowest scoring team in the AFL...Ain't football a funny game sometimes! :shrug:
Right, onto the rest...
Essendon...1.70!! At the Dome v. a terrible Demons....1.70??!!
Melbourne -12 I50's per game in their last 5...get only 45, and av'd only about 80 ppg.
Just won't get the job done against the Bombers who are 4-1 indoors (statistically unlucky loss to Kangaroos), and have scored 95+ in all 5.
Bombers form has been ok in the last 5, despite some seemingly poor results.
Maybe some value due to head-to-head results...Melbourne won 4 of last 5, but were big favs in all 4.
Melbourne snuck two 'lucky' wins, then got smashed by the Tigers!...'nuff said??
(Since I wrote this, Daniher has announced his retirement, but still...
Essendon -5.5 for me)
Geelong/Sydney will be a low scoring game, so will be tough to take Geelong minus any decent amount of points I think.
Sydney allow just 43 I50's away from home...get just 41!
Geelong allowed just 43 per game in last 5...a shot every 2.55 entries!!!
Can't see Sydney hitting 60...
I'll (hopefully) be on the under...Just have a sneaky feeling about the Swans here...think they just might be motivated enough to keep this one close, and aren't without a chance.
I still reckon Geelong are a FAR better team in the Dome...Beaten by Kangaroos at home, then wins over a poor traveling Eagles (with a heap of injuries...who also lost to Essendon in Melbourne)...Freo and Brisbane.
Just a funny thought that the Swans are half a chance in a total scrap.
Bit of a shame Freo/Carlton isn't at the Dome....could have been the highest scoring game in history!!
As it is, you'd have to suspect Freo will win, but 1.25 is far too short.
In fact, Carlton could be worth a shot given 4 goals or there abouts??
Freo playing better in last 5 (+4 I50's) but bad kicking has let them down badly...one of the main culprits out this week, but that hurts their structure...
...just the opposite for the Blues, some very good kicking has kept them in games.
Port @ Brisbane...2 pretty bad teams. Brisbane can't score, both teams have really bad D's...but the game does look to have a touch of the "Freo's" about it, when Brisbane pumped them.
Would have nearly had a stab at port at a decent price, but 1.75 favs? Hardly.
Will be on West Coast +10ish I think. I mentioned last week that Adelaide's win over the Kangas was far less convincing that it appeared.
In fact, the last 5 games show WC are clear favs...+10 I50's (Crows 0), big advatages in Clearances, contested ball, HO's to advatage and scoring...
...home/away evens things up, WC 52 I50's for and against...Crows -1 surprisingly!! Eagles problem away from home is that they just can't score, just a shot every 2.26 entries...but again, surprising that Adelaide allow a shot every 1.93 entries, and allow 23 shots per game.
They've lost at home to Essendon, Collingwood, Geelong had 7 more shots..snuck home v. Richmond.
Eagles have won 7 of the last 8 meetings...3 of 3 at AAMI! (2 as favs...one as 3.00 'dogs).
Crows won't blow them out, if they win at all.
10 points could be very handy here, imo.
Hawthorn?!! 1.73ish available...
Last 5 games they have had the best performed mid-field in the comp. Allowing just 41 I50's!...+10 per game...all other stats reasonably similar, but that's a pretty big hurdle for Collingwood to overcome.
Not sure Collingwood's strength of wins has been all that good, but I guess the same can be said about Hawthorn...wins v. Geelong and Eagles both at Tassie...
...still I Hawthorn are simply the better team here.
My bets:
Essendon -5.5 (1.90)
West Coast +9.5 (1.90)
Hawthorn (1.73)
The important one straight up!!
Dogs v. Kangas...Virtually identical...Dogs actually have better number in their last 5, but they do score less outside the Dome (and allow 1 more I50 a game, but play slightly better defense!)...
...I guess with Cross, Griffen, Eagleton and Murphy out and Archer's milestone game the Kangas get the nod, but I still believe that the Doggies are the better team.
If I had to take either, I think you'd have to say that Kangas at 2.00 or better would be the play...but just too tough to call for me.
Was a little surprised about the St. Kilda price, tbh. Was all set to take the Tiges at +25ish...won't be near that high...so realistically I think the Saints are decent value @ 1.50+...but just have some nagging doubts.
Let-down off a big win, travel, Kosi out...
Just a note on St. Kilda...on Sunday they were the first team ALL SEASON who scored at better than a shot every 2.05 entries. They went at 1.88. The lowest scoring team in the AFL...Ain't football a funny game sometimes! :shrug:
Right, onto the rest...
Essendon...1.70!! At the Dome v. a terrible Demons....1.70??!!
Melbourne -12 I50's per game in their last 5...get only 45, and av'd only about 80 ppg.
Just won't get the job done against the Bombers who are 4-1 indoors (statistically unlucky loss to Kangaroos), and have scored 95+ in all 5.
Bombers form has been ok in the last 5, despite some seemingly poor results.
Maybe some value due to head-to-head results...Melbourne won 4 of last 5, but were big favs in all 4.
Melbourne snuck two 'lucky' wins, then got smashed by the Tigers!...'nuff said??
(Since I wrote this, Daniher has announced his retirement, but still...
Essendon -5.5 for me)
Geelong/Sydney will be a low scoring game, so will be tough to take Geelong minus any decent amount of points I think.
Sydney allow just 43 I50's away from home...get just 41!
Geelong allowed just 43 per game in last 5...a shot every 2.55 entries!!!
Can't see Sydney hitting 60...
I'll (hopefully) be on the under...Just have a sneaky feeling about the Swans here...think they just might be motivated enough to keep this one close, and aren't without a chance.
I still reckon Geelong are a FAR better team in the Dome...Beaten by Kangaroos at home, then wins over a poor traveling Eagles (with a heap of injuries...who also lost to Essendon in Melbourne)...Freo and Brisbane.
Just a funny thought that the Swans are half a chance in a total scrap.
Bit of a shame Freo/Carlton isn't at the Dome....could have been the highest scoring game in history!!
As it is, you'd have to suspect Freo will win, but 1.25 is far too short.
In fact, Carlton could be worth a shot given 4 goals or there abouts??
Freo playing better in last 5 (+4 I50's) but bad kicking has let them down badly...one of the main culprits out this week, but that hurts their structure...
...just the opposite for the Blues, some very good kicking has kept them in games.
Port @ Brisbane...2 pretty bad teams. Brisbane can't score, both teams have really bad D's...but the game does look to have a touch of the "Freo's" about it, when Brisbane pumped them.
Would have nearly had a stab at port at a decent price, but 1.75 favs? Hardly.
Will be on West Coast +10ish I think. I mentioned last week that Adelaide's win over the Kangas was far less convincing that it appeared.
In fact, the last 5 games show WC are clear favs...+10 I50's (Crows 0), big advatages in Clearances, contested ball, HO's to advatage and scoring...
...home/away evens things up, WC 52 I50's for and against...Crows -1 surprisingly!! Eagles problem away from home is that they just can't score, just a shot every 2.26 entries...but again, surprising that Adelaide allow a shot every 1.93 entries, and allow 23 shots per game.
They've lost at home to Essendon, Collingwood, Geelong had 7 more shots..snuck home v. Richmond.
Eagles have won 7 of the last 8 meetings...3 of 3 at AAMI! (2 as favs...one as 3.00 'dogs).
Crows won't blow them out, if they win at all.
10 points could be very handy here, imo.
Hawthorn?!! 1.73ish available...
Last 5 games they have had the best performed mid-field in the comp. Allowing just 41 I50's!...+10 per game...all other stats reasonably similar, but that's a pretty big hurdle for Collingwood to overcome.
Not sure Collingwood's strength of wins has been all that good, but I guess the same can be said about Hawthorn...wins v. Geelong and Eagles both at Tassie...
...still I Hawthorn are simply the better team here.
My bets:
Essendon -5.5 (1.90)
West Coast +9.5 (1.90)
Hawthorn (1.73)
