25-21 (+1.14)
Another 2-2 last week...seems like this season has time-wasting mediocrity written all over it. :shrug:
Looks another dog weekend ahead...a couple of funny odds I would have thought...
Adelaide @ 3.20ish?! :scared I know there's been a few doubts over the Crows given an easy early draw, but Brisbane have had the same deal...only beaten 1 team in the top 7, and that was Collingwood early, by just 2 points at home. (The same Collingwood who've been beaten by Carlton now twice!! :142smilie )
Crows midfield going as well as anyone atm...av'ing +6 I50's in their last 4 (4th best), despite 2 losses.
Burton back is a BIG bonus this week and will help take advantage of some forward entries.
On the other side, Bradshaw likely out again has been a big loss for the Lions.
Scored just 96 in the game he went down, and just 68 last week...so despite the Crows lack of D on the road, look lke they might struggle to kick a decent score.
Venue is no problem for the Crows, having won here last year by 31 as 2.30 dogs...also in 2006, by 15 as favs.
Huge chance to win again, imo...getting 3 goals start looks a bit silly!
As bad as they are, Richmond +20ish looks nice too. Not sure why I had a dip at Port last week given I've been saying how crap they are all season...
...still crap!...in fact, going worse than ever. Av'ing a horrible 42 I50's in their last 4 (giving up 53!!)...including being beaten at home by Carlton, so not sure how they are decent sized favs over anyone right now.
Richmond did all they had to last week after a couple of very tough games...they've won in Perth this year, only lost by 7 @ Adelaide last year as big dogs...
Port won both meeting convincingly last year, but Richmond were last of the ladder with just 1 win after their Rd. 16 game, while Port were flying in 3rd @ 11-6.
If Carlton can win, no reason the Tiges can't! Will take 18.5 of better in what looks like a toss-up.
Kangas +5 goals Pawa? Both teams have dropped off significantly...Kangaroos av. -14 I50's in their last 4...Hawthrn av. 55 I50's for the season, but just 45 in their last 4.
I think the Roos have more excuses tho...2 of their last 4, in fact 4 of last 6 on the road!!...AND, played 2 of the 3 top teams in the other 2 games for a win and a 13 point loss. TOUGH.
Hawthorn got a bit lucky @ Adelaide this week, and have won just 2 of their last 8 but more than 16.
Both teams with some injury concerns...McIntosh out for Kangas, but Taylor, Sewell, Bateman all out for Hawks...Crawford?
Hawthorn won the first meeting in Rd. 3 by just 16 points, amazingly with 19 LESS contested possessions!
Kangaroos have won 7 of last 10 meetings...Hawks not won by more than 22...and the Roos won their last meeting at the MCG last season as 2.65 dogs.
I think people are reading a bit too much into losing to Freo last week...+30 looks nice.
West Coast?...Seems every time I get suckered into going against Geelong I lose...:cursin:
...but Eagles go ok at home. Just 2-4, but av. +2 I50's, and only 1 loss by more than 24 points (only 2 less shots than Carlton in a 37 point loss).
Geelong travelled interstate just twice this season...a 9 point win at Port and a very lucky 1 point win @ Freo.
Again, a bit too much of an over-reaction to the Eagles road/home form...and Geelong's big winover a poor Port...
...looks a lot of points to me, but will wait and see... :scared
Another 2-2 last week...seems like this season has time-wasting mediocrity written all over it. :shrug:
Looks another dog weekend ahead...a couple of funny odds I would have thought...
Adelaide @ 3.20ish?! :scared I know there's been a few doubts over the Crows given an easy early draw, but Brisbane have had the same deal...only beaten 1 team in the top 7, and that was Collingwood early, by just 2 points at home. (The same Collingwood who've been beaten by Carlton now twice!! :142smilie )
Crows midfield going as well as anyone atm...av'ing +6 I50's in their last 4 (4th best), despite 2 losses.
Burton back is a BIG bonus this week and will help take advantage of some forward entries.
On the other side, Bradshaw likely out again has been a big loss for the Lions.
Scored just 96 in the game he went down, and just 68 last week...so despite the Crows lack of D on the road, look lke they might struggle to kick a decent score.
Venue is no problem for the Crows, having won here last year by 31 as 2.30 dogs...also in 2006, by 15 as favs.
Huge chance to win again, imo...getting 3 goals start looks a bit silly!
As bad as they are, Richmond +20ish looks nice too. Not sure why I had a dip at Port last week given I've been saying how crap they are all season...
...still crap!...in fact, going worse than ever. Av'ing a horrible 42 I50's in their last 4 (giving up 53!!)...including being beaten at home by Carlton, so not sure how they are decent sized favs over anyone right now.
Richmond did all they had to last week after a couple of very tough games...they've won in Perth this year, only lost by 7 @ Adelaide last year as big dogs...
Port won both meeting convincingly last year, but Richmond were last of the ladder with just 1 win after their Rd. 16 game, while Port were flying in 3rd @ 11-6.
If Carlton can win, no reason the Tiges can't! Will take 18.5 of better in what looks like a toss-up.
Kangas +5 goals Pawa? Both teams have dropped off significantly...Kangaroos av. -14 I50's in their last 4...Hawthrn av. 55 I50's for the season, but just 45 in their last 4.
I think the Roos have more excuses tho...2 of their last 4, in fact 4 of last 6 on the road!!...AND, played 2 of the 3 top teams in the other 2 games for a win and a 13 point loss. TOUGH.
Hawthorn got a bit lucky @ Adelaide this week, and have won just 2 of their last 8 but more than 16.
Both teams with some injury concerns...McIntosh out for Kangas, but Taylor, Sewell, Bateman all out for Hawks...Crawford?
Hawthorn won the first meeting in Rd. 3 by just 16 points, amazingly with 19 LESS contested possessions!
Kangaroos have won 7 of last 10 meetings...Hawks not won by more than 22...and the Roos won their last meeting at the MCG last season as 2.65 dogs.
I think people are reading a bit too much into losing to Freo last week...+30 looks nice.
West Coast?...Seems every time I get suckered into going against Geelong I lose...:cursin:
...but Eagles go ok at home. Just 2-4, but av. +2 I50's, and only 1 loss by more than 24 points (only 2 less shots than Carlton in a 37 point loss).
Geelong travelled interstate just twice this season...a 9 point win at Port and a very lucky 1 point win @ Freo.
Again, a bit too much of an over-reaction to the Eagles road/home form...and Geelong's big winover a poor Port...
...looks a lot of points to me, but will wait and see... :scared
) ...so don't take him to too many seedy places, he's gunna need the $ to get home you know! :142smilie 