3-1 last week.
Geelong -21.5
Like this one. As mentioned, Essendon lucky to sneak the win last week. Geelong are a far better team...holding their opp to 44 I50's (+11) in their last 5...av 61 I50's (+11) in the dome this season.
Their defense has been outstanding all season, and I still maintain their forward line function much better indoors.
I expect Geelong to have at least +10 I50's and 10 more shots in this game...was prepared to take as much as -33...will jump on the 21.5 for sure.
Saints/Collingwood...I can't see any reason why Collingwood won't win this game (besides some of them ending up in prison).
Despite all the wailing about "half our backline is missing!"...their last 2 games have been the BEST defensive efforts all season! They av. a score every 2.06, previous best was 2.47 @ Adelaide...2.76 and 2.70 in the last 2.
St. Kilda av. just ovewr 60 ppg outdoors this season (just 20 shots per game!!), tough to see them doing any better here.
Hamil may be back (and...), McGuire as well, doesn't much help their forward line.
I like the under myself...hoping to get a decent number...I think it's a safer option, but realistically, Pies @ 1.80 look winners.
Dogs/Port...2 of the worst performing teams in the last 5 games. I was hoping for a decent price on the Dogs, but quickly lost interest <1.80.
Last 5, Port's scoring has remained quite stable, but their D has disappeared, allowing 53 I50' (av. 49) and 20 more points than usual.
They were unbelievably lucky to get the win last week, 13 less I50's!! 3 less shots...
The last 5 games read as a nightmare for both teams...Dogs lost to Carlton, Sydney and Kangas...won at Brisbane and got lucky v. Freo.
Port beaten by Carlton and also got lucky v. Essendon (and Brisbane).
It's gunna be a shoot-out...like the over for sure, but I reckon the books will have a high number in mind.
How to pick a winner...like most games like this, the team that kicks the straightest will win. Simple. How to tell who...impossible!
"I'd like the Hawks with a couple more points"...the sentence that has cost me the most $ this year by far!!...
...but, gunna fall for it again. Wanted +10...
Look, statistically, there is no reason at all Hawthorn won't win this game.
Still the best defensive midfield in the business...Crows slightly negative I50's at home this season, and a far worse D than we have come to expect (1.95)
I just think there are some signs that the Hawks are going to struggle to score against good D's...they've only had more than 24 shots once in the last 5 (v. Carlton)...just 20 last week...Boyle out will hurt...
...just got a funny feeling Crows are right in this one.
Don't reckon I'll get a number anywhere near where I'm after for the under...
...Hawks +24.5 @ 1.45 looks the bet here for sure.
West Coast win, but by how much? West Coast defense near impossible to beat at home...St. Kilda kicked straight and got 4-5 shots from Kosi before a move was made, won't happen again.
Impossible to take the Eagles to cover, given their lack of scoring power aswell.
Again, like the under, and think I will get a good number to go with this time.
Swans -9.5
A bit surprisingly, Swans numbers over the last 5 look pretty good! +3 I50's, +4 clearances...the 2 problems have been winnig contested ball, and scoring...
...Sydney, welcome Freo!!
Freo's road D is horrible, allowing 54 I50's @ 1.85 for about 29 shots per game (115 ppg)
Swans allow just 44 I50's at home this season, and hold their opp's to 20 shots.
Sydney had won and covered 7 straight at the SCG before Essendon stole a 1 point win, but the Bombers were playing the best D in the comp at that stage, Freo certainly aren't!
The Dockers have also lost their last 7 @ Sydney, losing all by more than 14 at an av. of 33.
Let's be fair, Hawthorn, Geelong, Collingwood have been Sydney's last 3...pretty tough run!...and have kept them all close (won one even).
Freo have beaten Carlton, Richmond and a horrible inaccurate Saints.
I've looked pretty close at the Tiges, and the only thing stopping me from taking them is the Dome. Turnovers just hurt so much more there.
Do like them @ +24.5 tho (1.57).
Kangas win last week was their first by over 4 goals...in a game where they had 4 less shots.
Richmond haven't lost by more in their last 6...and only then it was Geelong and a trip to Port.
Richmond won easily last year...they are really improving imo, and I still have to give them a big chance to win.
Definately can't see them getting towelled up....and anything better than 1.50 for the 24.5 looks nice to me.
Melbourne are a much worse side without Nietz...
Still, going with the stats...Melbourne were dead-set unlucky last game. 8 more I50's, 3 more shots...of course the emotion/Neitz being out there...in their last 5 they've av'd 51 I50's compared to 47 all up, and their D has improved from 1.83 entries per shot to 2.01.
Carlton have allowed 2 more I50's per game in their last 5 compared to the season...although they did perform remarkably well last week!!
Agree, with Nietz out and Robbo not 100% I don't think Melbourne have the fire-power to over-run Carlton's terrible defense.
And yeah, their 'big' change of coach game was last week, not this one.
Basically, it all addds up to a rematch of Melbourne/Richmond to me.
Carlton won the last 2 meetings as big 'dogs...
Bets (so far)
Geelong -21.5
Sydney -9.5
Geelong -21.5
Like this one. As mentioned, Essendon lucky to sneak the win last week. Geelong are a far better team...holding their opp to 44 I50's (+11) in their last 5...av 61 I50's (+11) in the dome this season.
Their defense has been outstanding all season, and I still maintain their forward line function much better indoors.
I expect Geelong to have at least +10 I50's and 10 more shots in this game...was prepared to take as much as -33...will jump on the 21.5 for sure.
Saints/Collingwood...I can't see any reason why Collingwood won't win this game (besides some of them ending up in prison).
Despite all the wailing about "half our backline is missing!"...their last 2 games have been the BEST defensive efforts all season! They av. a score every 2.06, previous best was 2.47 @ Adelaide...2.76 and 2.70 in the last 2.
St. Kilda av. just ovewr 60 ppg outdoors this season (just 20 shots per game!!), tough to see them doing any better here.
Hamil may be back (and...), McGuire as well, doesn't much help their forward line.
I like the under myself...hoping to get a decent number...I think it's a safer option, but realistically, Pies @ 1.80 look winners.
Dogs/Port...2 of the worst performing teams in the last 5 games. I was hoping for a decent price on the Dogs, but quickly lost interest <1.80.
Last 5, Port's scoring has remained quite stable, but their D has disappeared, allowing 53 I50' (av. 49) and 20 more points than usual.
They were unbelievably lucky to get the win last week, 13 less I50's!! 3 less shots...
The last 5 games read as a nightmare for both teams...Dogs lost to Carlton, Sydney and Kangas...won at Brisbane and got lucky v. Freo.
Port beaten by Carlton and also got lucky v. Essendon (and Brisbane).
It's gunna be a shoot-out...like the over for sure, but I reckon the books will have a high number in mind.
How to pick a winner...like most games like this, the team that kicks the straightest will win. Simple. How to tell who...impossible!
"I'd like the Hawks with a couple more points"...the sentence that has cost me the most $ this year by far!!...
...but, gunna fall for it again. Wanted +10...
Look, statistically, there is no reason at all Hawthorn won't win this game.
Still the best defensive midfield in the business...Crows slightly negative I50's at home this season, and a far worse D than we have come to expect (1.95)
I just think there are some signs that the Hawks are going to struggle to score against good D's...they've only had more than 24 shots once in the last 5 (v. Carlton)...just 20 last week...Boyle out will hurt...
...just got a funny feeling Crows are right in this one.
Don't reckon I'll get a number anywhere near where I'm after for the under...
...Hawks +24.5 @ 1.45 looks the bet here for sure.
West Coast win, but by how much? West Coast defense near impossible to beat at home...St. Kilda kicked straight and got 4-5 shots from Kosi before a move was made, won't happen again.
Impossible to take the Eagles to cover, given their lack of scoring power aswell.
Again, like the under, and think I will get a good number to go with this time.
Swans -9.5
A bit surprisingly, Swans numbers over the last 5 look pretty good! +3 I50's, +4 clearances...the 2 problems have been winnig contested ball, and scoring...
...Sydney, welcome Freo!!
Freo's road D is horrible, allowing 54 I50's @ 1.85 for about 29 shots per game (115 ppg)
Swans allow just 44 I50's at home this season, and hold their opp's to 20 shots.
Sydney had won and covered 7 straight at the SCG before Essendon stole a 1 point win, but the Bombers were playing the best D in the comp at that stage, Freo certainly aren't!
The Dockers have also lost their last 7 @ Sydney, losing all by more than 14 at an av. of 33.
Let's be fair, Hawthorn, Geelong, Collingwood have been Sydney's last 3...pretty tough run!...and have kept them all close (won one even).
Freo have beaten Carlton, Richmond and a horrible inaccurate Saints.
I've looked pretty close at the Tiges, and the only thing stopping me from taking them is the Dome. Turnovers just hurt so much more there.
Do like them @ +24.5 tho (1.57).
Kangas win last week was their first by over 4 goals...in a game where they had 4 less shots.
Richmond haven't lost by more in their last 6...and only then it was Geelong and a trip to Port.
Richmond won easily last year...they are really improving imo, and I still have to give them a big chance to win.
Definately can't see them getting towelled up....and anything better than 1.50 for the 24.5 looks nice to me.
Melbourne are a much worse side without Nietz...
Still, going with the stats...Melbourne were dead-set unlucky last game. 8 more I50's, 3 more shots...of course the emotion/Neitz being out there...in their last 5 they've av'd 51 I50's compared to 47 all up, and their D has improved from 1.83 entries per shot to 2.01.
Carlton have allowed 2 more I50's per game in their last 5 compared to the season...although they did perform remarkably well last week!!
Agree, with Nietz out and Robbo not 100% I don't think Melbourne have the fire-power to over-run Carlton's terrible defense.
And yeah, their 'big' change of coach game was last week, not this one.
Basically, it all addds up to a rematch of Melbourne/Richmond to me.
Carlton won the last 2 meetings as big 'dogs...
Bets (so far)
Geelong -21.5
Sydney -9.5
