AFL Rd. 14

[MrChristo]

24-22' (+0.16)

Collingwood +14.5

Not convinced about Port being 'back'. Their last 3 wins have been against poorly performing defenses, and even given that they beat the Dogs at home by just 15 and although they beat St. Kilda by 23, they had 10 less inside 50's and 2 less shots.
They've relied on efficient conversion up forward to win, but Collingwood's backline is far better than the last 3 Port have faced.
Collingwood's form has been better, only a loss to a strong Melbourne, and last week they had 11 more inside 50's and 4 more shots than Sydney.
Port have lost their last 3 games at the dome by 92, 40 and 56 points, all as ~1.50 favs!
Collingwood have lost only 1 of their last 7 indoors by more than this, inc. 2 strong performances this year v. Geelong and Adelaide.
Although Port won this meeting by 37 points last year (MCG), Collingwood had 1 more inside 40 and 2 less shots, so the game was much closer than the final score suggests...Also in that game Tarrant was goalless, and Preti and Wakelin were both out for the 'Pies!!

Really can't see Collingwood getting blown away here.


I kinda like Richmond, but wanted a few more points...
West Coast -44.5 @ TAB, could do it if they started @ HT...still dubious I guess...
Like the Crows and Geelong, but will wait to see who's back for the Cats and also Freo.
Dogs +15.5 anyone??

 

[hawkeye]

Like the pick--Hey is West Coast that bad + 40 something?? Thanks

 

[MrChristo]

Yeah, Carlton are that bad, hawkeye.

Lost their last 7 straight, 4 of them have been by 46+ points. They've lost their last 2 games @ Subiaco (West Coast) by 62 and 116 points. (And they lost by 47 to Freo over there too)
West Coast are just about unbeatable at home. Really, they could win by 200 if they wanted to, but not sure how seriously they'll take this Carlton team.

 

[hawkeye]

sorry I meant Carlton-thanks

 

[MrChristo]

Geelong -24.5

I said recently that I think Geelong are over-rated, but I think now the spread on this game is too low due to their recent 'poor' performances. Bad kicking v. Freo, 13 more inside 50's v. Collingwood, and low scores against the leagues best defense (Adelaide) and in rain in Brisbane coming back to somewhere near their best form.
Hawthorn, on the other hand, have started to slide. 4 straight losses, all by 22+. Their goals have dropped right off, and they have allowed a goal every 2.86 entries into their 50!! If Geelong can score on anyone, it's this Hawthorn team.
Geelong have won 9 of their last 10 at the dome, 7 by more than 29+, and they have won the past 3 meetings by 34, 56 and 65 points.
Hodge out of the Hawthorn team will be a big loss, and I reckon Geelong will bounce back with a decent win here.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

It's that time of year Christo. The bad teams just want it to end.

I agree....Hawthorn are in trouble here.


I like the price on the Cats for the flag right now. It ain't gunna get any better than this. They will come good when their list gets healthy at the latter part of the season. Don't write them off completely. :nono:

 

[Cartman88]

My plays for this weekend:

Richmond +9.5 vs Sydney (2 units)
Adelaide -24.5 vs Fremantle

Gut feeling says St Kilda come out and put up a big performance this week - just can't back them in their current form.

Had to laugh at the Collingwood vs Sydney match last week - a Collingwood supporter screamed out "you'll never win the flag" and this old fella with a Sydney jumper on turns around and starts throwing a few punches - turned out that he misheard and thought the guy was calling him a fag !!!!

 

[MrChristo]

Adelaide -24.5

McPahrlin back...but now Bell out for the Dockers! Got no problems at all going against them here. They're about the worst team in the comp right now, coming up against one of the best. Just have to hope they don't put on a 8.15 or 9.17 performance...but given the Dockers have been allowing a shot every 1.63 entries into their 50 in their last 5 games, and the Crows are averaging a massive 13.8 more inside 50's per game than their opponent, then it really shouldn't matter!

Good luck with the Tiges, Cartman. Like them too, but not feeling that brave!

Just saw Hamill and Koschitzke both training strongly If it's wet and slippery the Saints should get up.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Good hit on the Magpies Christo. Port never looked like winning. :toast:


Much like Hewitt right now!!! :mj07:

 

[bombercoops]

.....and the Roos tomorrow!
Pies starting to show a little form but geez, how bad can two clubs kick at goal in the one game! Dees/Brissy will be a good game to watch tomorrow night.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

.....and the Roos tomorrow!

:fingerc:


Any player matchups ya like at Centrebet Christo?

I'm liking Kirk over Tivendale and Hird over Sinclair (if he plays). You usually to go alright at these. What do you think? :shrug:

 

[hawkeye]

Great call on Collingswood-thanks

 

[MrChristo]

Pretty happy with myself atm...Seems like forever since a team won for the exact reason I thought they would! ....ok, moment over!

Hadn't had a look this week tbh Pawa, but one that looks ok is Jason Johnson to get more than Harvey...Definately not liking the 1.87 tho.
Not sure Kirk is such a good bet @ 1.65 either. He had only 11 and 19 (3 votes apparently!) in the 2 meetings last year, although he has been getting more of it this year, and wet, slippery conditions will suit him for sure.

Hoping for a reasonable total in the Syd/Rich game, but not likely given Centrebet are a bit like the wicked witch of the west...scared of rain!
Figures to be a bit of a low scorer anyway, so hoping the rain holds off. Under 190.5 on Betfair, but 1.23 only last I looked (although plenty there to take!)

Good luck with the Tiges today Cartman...oh, and sorry, bomber, couldn't help myself in the other thread! :mj07:

 

[bombercoops]

LOL! Take your chances when you get em' christo!
On the cats with you and taking the sainters against your mob down there tomorrow. I still have a little faith in the saints and feel that tomorrow is a large game for them in regards to how their season will unfold, hence, I'm counting on them to cover the 13.5 with a decent win.
Playing: Essendon $1.80
Saints -13.5
Geelong -25.5
Record: 8-7
BTW, you going to the game tonight pawa??

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Nah, Bomber, I got some shit on tonight.....but I'll be there in spirit!! :box2:

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Christo / Bomber

Roos equal second on the ladder now....

What do you think I look bettter in??

or the more traditional

hmmmm........what to pick?....what to pick?


:142lmao:

 

[bombercoops]

LOL! Had a feeling there'd be something strong in here this week if the Roos won and the dogs and dons stumbled. In response to your question of which shirt to go with, I reckon the guy in the second pic looks a bit queer so that would probably suit you best! Full credit for making the most of the situation and I can't wait to do some "North" shopping. So mad last night!
Anyway, aside from the loss, the cats and saints got the cover which helped my cause. Thought your dogs were going to run all over the top of the sainters late in the game 'C'. It hurts when it gets that close only to have it ripped right out from underneath you. Saints got the cover on the final siren also thanks to Guerra's goal.
Season: 10-8

 

[PAWAQATSI]

In response to your question of which shirt to go with, I reckon the guy in the second pic looks a bit queer so that would probably suit you best!

LMAO!!! :mj07:


Hey man.......that guy in the second pic is Big Bad "Leroy" Brown.....baddest backmen in the whole damn town!!! (mind you he actually kicked a goal up forward last night....that's how bad your lot were!!!) What a pisser!! :142lmao:

I had a good slice of the Cats today and a lucky double with them and Adelaide, who just held on from a late charging Fremantle. I think the Crows were about 50 up at one stage when I looked!! Geez!! So I'm pretty happy.

I'm guessing Christo is off fuming at his mob and their failed late charge at the Saints. They had a fair advantage when Reiwolt popped his shoulder early in the game. Just couldn't capitalise on it.

I'm interested in what the Roos v Eagles line will be for next Friday's game. Could be time to go against my blokes if we are getting less than 20.

 

[bombercoops]

He, he! Thought I may have got a decent giggle out of you paw.
Have been wondering the same thing about christo and his whereabouts since your pics were posted. Where are you buddy?? It's only a shirt! LMAO! Tough call on the line for this friday's game mate. West Coast -17.5 maybe??

 

[MrChristo]

Adelaide 58 inside 50's to Freo's 38....****ing annoying this team, they really are!!

Fuming? Now why would you think that Pawa? 3rd or 4th game we've lost this year by under 20 points. We've lost Smith for weeks and likely Murphy. That ****ing little rat Milne ended up on top...oh, and I had a bit of the Dogs +14.5 when I knew Hamill was out...Can't imagine I'd be the least bit upset. :cursin:

I'm looking at the beany in that first picture, more your style I reckon mate.

(bomber, if we jump quick, the 2004 polo tops are priced to go! :mj14: )