Geelong -24.5
Too much of a line over-reaction after Geelong were belted last week in Adelaide, and Carlton kept it reasonably close @ Brisbane...But the Carlton result was far from the 'truth', with the Blues allowing 13 more inside 50's and 31 scoring shots, but Brisbane wasted them by kicking 8.23!!...and defense has been the Blues' problem all season allowing at least 31 shots in each of their last 6. Murphy is now out (arguably their best mid-fielder) and Fevola is clearly less than 100%, and given that he has kicked over 1/3 of their goals, things don't look good for the Blues.
Adelaide will (and have!) flogged a lot of teams this season, esp. at home, and we saw last week how St. Kilda responded against a bad team after being humbled by the Crows.
I'm expecting a similar response from the Cats here.
Brisbane +20.5
This game is slightly misleading?It?s a Melbourne home game, but being played at Brisbane?Where the Lions have dominated recent history, winning the last 3 buy 60, 40 and 74 last year.
Melbourne?s midfield isn?t great, only on par with their opp (actually -1 inside 50s per week), and Brisbane have been pretty good at home, av. nearly +3 per game, and the defensive and scoring stats are nearly identical. (with Bris at home)
Their recent record has been tainted somewhat by some atrocious kicking for goal, but these things have a habit of evening themselves out over time, so I don?t expect them to keep spraying 8.23 every week!!
On the surface Melbourne are flying, but big wins over a poor travelling Port (- Tredrea and Cornes), Essendon, Hawthorn, and Freo?in between have been close games (or losses) v. Sydney, Kangaroos, Carlton, Bulldogs, Adelaide, Geelong, St. Kilda?and although they beat Collingwood by 47, they kicked 22.9.
The Brisbane backline is suspect, but with Michael back it looks much stronger, and they should be able to score enough at home to keep this one close at least.
Hawthorn +23.5
Absolutely a play against the flailing Eagles. In the last 5 meetings away from Perth, West Coast haven?t beaten the Hawks by more than 19 points (@ Tassie last year), and they have been favs in all but one of those games.
Since rd. 6 the Eagles are just 5-3, with no wins by more than 22 points, and although the Hawks have had some beltings, they have been by some good teams?and mostly ?away?. In games where they have had the ground advantage (or at least neutral) they have lost to Sydney by 65, (but very misleading scoreline, as they had just 4 less inside 50?s and 5 less shots), lost to the Dogs by 21, and beat Richmond by 41 in Tassie.
In 2 trips to Victoria this year, West Coast have beaten Essendon by 21 points and Geelong by 3?and in all away games they average the same amount of inside 50?s as their opp, and score just every 2.02 entries.
Hawthorn have had their problems this season with big full-forwards who can take advantage of their weakness down back, but I don?t think West Coast have anyone capable of standing up and kicking a big score for them, esp. now with Cox out.
Too much of a line over-reaction after Geelong were belted last week in Adelaide, and Carlton kept it reasonably close @ Brisbane...But the Carlton result was far from the 'truth', with the Blues allowing 13 more inside 50's and 31 scoring shots, but Brisbane wasted them by kicking 8.23!!...and defense has been the Blues' problem all season allowing at least 31 shots in each of their last 6. Murphy is now out (arguably their best mid-fielder) and Fevola is clearly less than 100%, and given that he has kicked over 1/3 of their goals, things don't look good for the Blues.
Adelaide will (and have!) flogged a lot of teams this season, esp. at home, and we saw last week how St. Kilda responded against a bad team after being humbled by the Crows.
I'm expecting a similar response from the Cats here.
Brisbane +20.5
This game is slightly misleading?It?s a Melbourne home game, but being played at Brisbane?Where the Lions have dominated recent history, winning the last 3 buy 60, 40 and 74 last year.
Melbourne?s midfield isn?t great, only on par with their opp (actually -1 inside 50s per week), and Brisbane have been pretty good at home, av. nearly +3 per game, and the defensive and scoring stats are nearly identical. (with Bris at home)
Their recent record has been tainted somewhat by some atrocious kicking for goal, but these things have a habit of evening themselves out over time, so I don?t expect them to keep spraying 8.23 every week!!
On the surface Melbourne are flying, but big wins over a poor travelling Port (- Tredrea and Cornes), Essendon, Hawthorn, and Freo?in between have been close games (or losses) v. Sydney, Kangaroos, Carlton, Bulldogs, Adelaide, Geelong, St. Kilda?and although they beat Collingwood by 47, they kicked 22.9.
The Brisbane backline is suspect, but with Michael back it looks much stronger, and they should be able to score enough at home to keep this one close at least.
Hawthorn +23.5
Absolutely a play against the flailing Eagles. In the last 5 meetings away from Perth, West Coast haven?t beaten the Hawks by more than 19 points (@ Tassie last year), and they have been favs in all but one of those games.
Since rd. 6 the Eagles are just 5-3, with no wins by more than 22 points, and although the Hawks have had some beltings, they have been by some good teams?and mostly ?away?. In games where they have had the ground advantage (or at least neutral) they have lost to Sydney by 65, (but very misleading scoreline, as they had just 4 less inside 50?s and 5 less shots), lost to the Dogs by 21, and beat Richmond by 41 in Tassie.
In 2 trips to Victoria this year, West Coast have beaten Essendon by 21 points and Geelong by 3?and in all away games they average the same amount of inside 50?s as their opp, and score just every 2.02 entries.
Hawthorn have had their problems this season with big full-forwards who can take advantage of their weakness down back, but I don?t think West Coast have anyone capable of standing up and kicking a big score for them, esp. now with Cox out.
