AFL Rd. 14.

[MrChristo]

28-23 (+ 1.87)...

St. Kilda +11.5 (1.95)

Think this one goes down to the wire either way.
Last 4 games Kangaroos have THE worst performing midfield!! Worse than Port, worse than Melbourne even...-16 I50's...allowing 58, gaining only 42.
Terrible.
They've gotten by by being very efficient up forward, but Saints D is pretty good...5th best overall, and 4th best last 4 games.
The main thing is their horrible travelling record tho...haven't even been in the hunt on a 'true' road game this season, and only beat a horrible West Coast team by 6 points @ the Gold Coast this year, with 4 LESS I50's!
Saints not the best travellers in the world either, but in what looks like it will be a tight, low scoring game, nearly 2 goals looks pretty appealing.
Oh, Kangaroos haven't won a game by 7 points in their last 9 games. :SIB

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Oh, Kangaroos haven't won a game by 7 points in their last 9 games. :SIB

Hmmm......could've sworn Coops and I watched North magnificently beat the Hawks last week by 27 points :mj03:

:SIB INDEED!!


A letdown could well be on the cards tho....but then again....anyone that watched the Saints second half last week should be loathe to put $$$ on em!!

 

[MrChristo]

Oh yeah! :mj07:

Once in the last 9 would you believe, Chief? :0corn

Dal Santo, Kosi and Milne back, can't see it being too much of a margin either way.

 

[bombercoops]

Yep, we watched a surprise win by the roos last week indeed! Intensity was pumping throughout- great game to watch and quite the opposite to the saints/freo clanger spectacle showcased friday night!
Carlton for mine this week to get back to their winning ways after being beaten by a great side last week! :SIB

Carlton +6.5 x 1 unit

 

[MrChristo]

Judd out Coops...which is why the line is rising, but yeah, I agree, looks a very even game to me.
Tipping Carlton, can't see they are any worse than Richmond with or without Judd.

Are let downs common after winning your first game for a month, Pawa? :142smilie

 

[MrChristo]

St. Kilda v. Kangas under 189.5 (1.85)

Both teams really struggle to score when travelling. Saints 61, 95 & 67 on the road, Kangas 74, 89 (here), 98 and 67.
Low scoring venue, with 3 of the 4 recent games there going under this number, and the last 2 meetings (Dome 2006, 2007) were snorers at 131 and 138!!
Lyon showed by dropping Milne and Dal Santo last week how he wants this Saints team to play...as a result, their last 4 have been under this amount @ 167...and last game was a huge defensive struggle @ 122!!
Will be tough in close and numbers behind the ball everywhere I suspect.

 

[bombercoops]

Money coming in on brissy and a little on freo it seems. Freo have been bad all year but I think its time for our 2 game win streak to come to an end. See freo getting home by 3-5 goals in this one.

Freo -13 x 1 unit

YTD: 13-8= +6 units

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Nice hits on the saints & under C. For every week that the Roos make me proud, like last week against the Hawks & that win over your Doggies, they give me 2 weeks that I am ashamed of!!

Also good work on the Blues Coops. Took a big last qtr but they got it done against the woeful tigers. Might follow you in for a piece of Freo today.

 

[bombercoops]

Big win by the dees today. Brisbane look very ordinary when they have to travel and I can only hope that trend continues when they play my boys in the next round at the dome. Let's see what freo team comes out to play today!

 

[MrChristo]

A nice slow, defensive form a hope! :0corn

Freo v. Essendon under 200.5 (1.90)

Freo play a pretty good defensive game at home...combined with the inevitable tempo stuff if they ever get infront!...av. just 95 I50's per game @ Subi, and only once have they topped 98...remarkably v. the Eagles.
And, in their last 4 games they've allowed just 42 per game, gaining 48.
Essendon have been much better lately too, allowing 53, down from 61!
Freo haven't topped 187 in their last 5...bit of rain about...and I can't possibly expect another last quarter like last week! :shrug:

How'd Brisbane ever let that slip?! :scared

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Richmond's Graham Polak took the Carlton loss pretty bad.......and threw himself under a tram!! WTF??!!

 

[bombercoops]

Just read that paw! Not good news at all. Hope he comes out of the coma OK and gets back to full health.
Dons hang on against freo in the west. Always easier to accept a losing bet when your team is the cause of the loss I guess. Maybe I'll bet against them for the remainder of the season and see what happens. lol! Anti-spruik!! :shrug:

YTD: 13-9= + 5 units

 

[MrChristo]

Has anyone ever seen Terry Wallace in a conductor's hat??
...seems to be running out of excuses for losing games.

Anyway, onto 14.2...

Adelaide +24.5 (1.92)

Geelong have played the 2 worst teams in the AFL last 2 and now are a bit over-valued playing away @ a very solid Crows team.
A genuine home advantage with Geelong having just 1 of last 10 @ AAMI by more than 10 points.
Their last 2 wins have been by 7 and 9 points, both as favs, and lost in 2004 as 1.55 favs.
Crows have won 9 of last 10 at home, with a 4 point loss to Hawthorn, and were without their best forward at the time. (Burton)
Adelaide are capable of playing a very tough, tight, man-on-man style that Collingwood used to great effect against Geelong.