AFL Rd. 15.

[MrChristo]

26-23' (+0.96)

Adelaide -22.5

Will continue to ride this Crows team. Blew a 48 point lead in 40 minutes last week, but Hawthorn have no Pavlich!
Once again they dominated the midfield, 58 inside 50's to 39, but mainly due to Pavlich alone (and some rediculously straight kicking), Freo became the first team to break 80 points v. Adelaide since Rd. 5.
The Crows will dominate the ball again in this game, and much like Geelong last week, this is the team that you can score on. They've allowed 100+ in each of their last 5, and allow a goal every 2.9 entries into their 50!
Adelaide beat the Hawks by 86 points last year at the MCG, and although they are 0-2 in Tasmania, they have been in close games as big underdogs both times.
Nice fine day forecast, so I think Hawthorn might lose their 5th game in the last 6 by more than 4 goals.

 

[bombercoops]

Nice stats as always christo. Adelaide look the play providing conditions are fine down there. Looking at the pies as a dog, along with the saints, west coast, and dons at even money. I think we need to run the table christo to have any shot at picking up the end of season prize- but the chances of that- well, pretty much none! I know you're smiling down there in melbourne right now paw!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

:yup


I'll be grinning even more when I come home from the Dome tomorrow night!!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Someone better slap me down coz I'm starting to believe we can beat the Eagles!!!

:mj17:

 

[MrChristo]

I'm actually considering the Tiges, bomber...Here's a good stat for you...
...In the last 5 games, Essendon have had THE worst performing midfield! They've averaged 13.2 les inside 50's per game than the opp!! :scared:
But, of course, Richmond are crap, and your boys blew them away last year with both Hird and Lucas going down during the game. Still, 2.08 @ Pinnacle is slightly tempting!

Reckon I'll just stick to the one bet this week. Would be all over the Doggies getting 20 @ Perth, but I'm afraid that game on Sunday may have really drained them physically. Will be tough to come up from that.

Won't get to see any footy this weekend. Off to the Tassie leg of Rally Australia. Corporate tent. Wine tasting. Gourmet lunch...and presumably a whole world of beer!
So if you see some sports highlights of a rally car running over a drunken idiot singing the Bulldogs theme song....

 

[bombercoops]

Sounds like you've got more than a bit of confidence in your boys this week paw. The only way you'll leave the dome tomorrow night grinning is if you're an eagles supporter- or put a truck load of cash on em'! LOL! No, I hope for your sake the roos get the win but I'll be pulling the other way from a betting standpoint.
Christo, doesn't surprise me too much about Essendon's midfield or lack there of in recent weeks- aside from the saints game. Flip of the coin type game really but I'm going to put it out there one more time. Have a good time at the rally mate!

 

[Cartman88]

A few plays for me this weekend ....

West Coast -10.5 vs Kangaroos (2 units)
Richmond +3.5 vs Essendon
Adelaide -21.5 vs Hawthorn
St Kilda -24.5 vs Carlton (2 units)
Wstn Bulldogs +20.5 vs Fremantle

 

[PAWAQATSI]

You've stepped up to the plate with a few Cartman!! Good luck mate.

I'm still tracking my 'hybrid theory' which picked brissy over 15.5 last week against Melbourne (@ $1.90 DOHH!) to sit at 5 - 4 all up. Adelaide and the Saints are eligible this week, though it's no real surprise given that they are both playing the two worst teams going around!! I'll only be playing them small so I just thought I'd throw them both out there for some thinking material.

Money is coming in on the +line for my Roos tonight against the League leaders, West coast. Interesting stat is that the Eagles have played at the Dome 18 times since it was built for just 4 wins and 1 draw!! Granted this is probably the best Eagles team to play here, but Embley won't be playing and he is a big loss for 'em. Hopefully Wells and Hale are fit to play for the Roos or perhaps the 'Big Mac' will come in and play his first game in the seniors this year!

I've decided to play a unit on both teams to win under 39.5pts (Roos $3.10 / Eagles $2.50) and skim the profit. This will go down to the wire with neither team capable of blowing it out. If we tackle hard like last week we are a big chance to pull off the upset. I'll be part of the hostile crowd going ape-shit if we win!!

A BIG night ahead..... :box2:

 

[bombercoops]

Have a good time at the game tonight paw!

I'm chasing:
West Coast -12.5
Essendon pk
Saints -24.5

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Just looking at the Port v Melbourne game. Melbourne's second road trip in a row, poor record over in Adelaide in recent times against both South Australian teams (losses by 73, 14, 72 & 73 points!!). Port much stronger at home. I don't think they will have much trouble covering the goal and a half start to the Demons.

I'm on Port minus the points thank you very much!!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Well it's just after midnight and there ain't no grin on PAWA's face!!

My fast finishing Roos were stopped 4 points short of victory, 101 to 97. We should have been 3 goals up at qtr time but got the rough end of the umpiring pineapple! Instead of being down by 27 at 3/4 time we should have only been down a couple of goals and we would have run over the top of the Eagles. I'm spewing. :mj02:

One thing I do know is that this Eagles team is very efficient by foot, always hit their target and always get men free across halfback through the center, before running down field in waves. Surgical precision football.

But....as much as they dominated the middle two quarters, they couldn't put us away and actually showed signs of panic as we ran amok in the last quarter kicking 5 goals to 1. We also finished up with one extra scoring shot for the night.

This Eagles team is very good and will finish on top of the ladder gaining home finals in the process. But when they have to come to the MCG to play on that last day in September.....they will get beaten by any of the other top 4 sides that get through to play off for the cup. I say a full strength Geelong, an Adelaide or even a Melbourne side will beat them purely because they struggle to win in Victoria. I'll play large on any side that makes it to the final against West Coast.....and I'm calling it now....two months from the end. :yup

 

[bombercoops]

"Umpiring pineapple" ay! I've heard it all paw! You guys had a genuine chance had harding slotted the goal and not hit the post from 10m out and petrie goaled from a set shot late in the game. Nice final quarter effort mate. However, what did i suggest in regards to grinning?? Don't worry, you'll have a small logoed roos shirt strapped to your chest in no time pal. Nice effort tonight by your roos, and an equally impressive nice lack of cover by the coasters! 1 down to start the weekend.