Some early thoughts...
Richmond v. Melbourne...Still not overly impressed with Melbourne. I keep saying Richond are crap, but they kep getting the job done. No idea!
Tough (impossible!) to see Essendon troubling the Saints too much, but 43.5 points could be a lot to overcome on the MCG in what could be damp conditions.
Amazingly enough, in the last 5 Essendon have av'd -1 inside 50 per game...Saints are just +1! Scoring stats very similar too, Ess 120 shots, Saints 124...But Essendon D is a huge problem, allowing a shot every 1.69 entries!
Crows -46.5. Why not keep backing the best team in the comp. In their 6 home games this season they lost by 2 to the Eagles in Rd. 2, and since then have won by 77, 50, 64, 138 & 92 points!
They av. 17 more inside 50's at home than their opp!!...score every 1.76 entries and allow a shot every 2.29. Don't think I've ever seen better stats than that!
Hawthorn have lost their last 5 @ AAMI by 44 (Crows), 57, 81, 117 & 96 (all v. Port)
They've lost 4 of their last 7 by more than this, and even at this number I think they are being given too much credit for running West Coast close last week.
Crows by LOTS.
Kangaroos/Brisbane is a toughy too. Don't rate the Kangas, and they being over-valued off a predictable enough win v. a flat Bulldogs...But Brisbane away from home aren't too flash either. Roe out will further weaken a shaky D.
Have to take Sydney +18.5 I think. The Eagles stumble from one game to the next...It's all well and good to say it's a "good sign to win when you're playing bad", but the fact is they are sneaking in over crap teams and losing to good ones.
Despite a slightly poor run of form themselves, Sydney are still a good team.
And, the bigger ground will certainly help Sydney scoring...Sydney infront of most stats, even in the home/away. Swans +6 inside 50's away from home this season, Eagles just +5 at home.
Swans kick a goal every 3.15 entries, Eagles 3.64.
Defenses very similar, both allowing a shot every 2.11 entries.
Eagles have won just 2 of their last 9 by more than 18 (14 even), and as bad as both teams' last 5 have been, the Swans still come out on top.
Sydney lost by 4 in the QF last season @ Perth, and won by 4 in the GF.
...no doubt WC will be talking up the revenge factor, but I think form over-rides such things, and WC aren't going well enough to be giving 3 goals to a genuine top 6 team.
Geelong should win, but they just aren't playing well enough to deserve a -30 (1.20) tag.
I've got no doubt the Dogs will bounce back, but again, 30 is a lot to lay, esp. when they have failed to beat Essendon, Hawthorn and Freo by more in the last 8 weeks.
Depending on the weather, I like Collingwood -20.5. I was looking forward to this line after last week's results...It's a little higher than I had hoped, but still very coverable, imo.
Freo are still crap. They really struggled to over-come bottom of the table Essendon at home last week, and it was only Essendon's inexperience down back that REALLY hurt.
Freo av. -5 inside 50's away from home, can't score (2.15), and can't defend! (1.88).
Collingwood have had a horror last month, but Melbourne, Sydney, St. Kiolda all legit finals teams...Richmond in the rain (who keep proving to be legit anyway!!)...
Freo on the road should be able to get them back on track.
Freo won this meeting at the MCG last season, but were favs...
...Still not 100% convinced, but I suspect Collingwood will be a play for me.
Richmond v. Melbourne...Still not overly impressed with Melbourne. I keep saying Richond are crap, but they kep getting the job done. No idea!
Tough (impossible!) to see Essendon troubling the Saints too much, but 43.5 points could be a lot to overcome on the MCG in what could be damp conditions.
Amazingly enough, in the last 5 Essendon have av'd -1 inside 50 per game...Saints are just +1! Scoring stats very similar too, Ess 120 shots, Saints 124...But Essendon D is a huge problem, allowing a shot every 1.69 entries!
Crows -46.5. Why not keep backing the best team in the comp. In their 6 home games this season they lost by 2 to the Eagles in Rd. 2, and since then have won by 77, 50, 64, 138 & 92 points!
They av. 17 more inside 50's at home than their opp!!...score every 1.76 entries and allow a shot every 2.29. Don't think I've ever seen better stats than that!
Hawthorn have lost their last 5 @ AAMI by 44 (Crows), 57, 81, 117 & 96 (all v. Port)
They've lost 4 of their last 7 by more than this, and even at this number I think they are being given too much credit for running West Coast close last week.
Crows by LOTS.
Kangaroos/Brisbane is a toughy too. Don't rate the Kangas, and they being over-valued off a predictable enough win v. a flat Bulldogs...But Brisbane away from home aren't too flash either. Roe out will further weaken a shaky D.
Have to take Sydney +18.5 I think. The Eagles stumble from one game to the next...It's all well and good to say it's a "good sign to win when you're playing bad", but the fact is they are sneaking in over crap teams and losing to good ones.
Despite a slightly poor run of form themselves, Sydney are still a good team.
And, the bigger ground will certainly help Sydney scoring...Sydney infront of most stats, even in the home/away. Swans +6 inside 50's away from home this season, Eagles just +5 at home.
Swans kick a goal every 3.15 entries, Eagles 3.64.
Defenses very similar, both allowing a shot every 2.11 entries.
Eagles have won just 2 of their last 9 by more than 18 (14 even), and as bad as both teams' last 5 have been, the Swans still come out on top.
Sydney lost by 4 in the QF last season @ Perth, and won by 4 in the GF.
...no doubt WC will be talking up the revenge factor, but I think form over-rides such things, and WC aren't going well enough to be giving 3 goals to a genuine top 6 team.
Geelong should win, but they just aren't playing well enough to deserve a -30 (1.20) tag.
I've got no doubt the Dogs will bounce back, but again, 30 is a lot to lay, esp. when they have failed to beat Essendon, Hawthorn and Freo by more in the last 8 weeks.
Depending on the weather, I like Collingwood -20.5. I was looking forward to this line after last week's results...It's a little higher than I had hoped, but still very coverable, imo.
Freo are still crap. They really struggled to over-come bottom of the table Essendon at home last week, and it was only Essendon's inexperience down back that REALLY hurt.
Freo av. -5 inside 50's away from home, can't score (2.15), and can't defend! (1.88).
Collingwood have had a horror last month, but Melbourne, Sydney, St. Kiolda all legit finals teams...Richmond in the rain (who keep proving to be legit anyway!!)...
Freo on the road should be able to get them back on track.
Freo won this meeting at the MCG last season, but were favs...
...Still not 100% convinced, but I suspect Collingwood will be a play for me.
