AFL Rd. 16.

MrChristo

The Zapper
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Nov 11, 2001
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Sexlexia...
Kangaroos -21.5

Going with your boys here PAWA, so get along there and get them up for us will ya! :mj14:

Hawthorn being over-rated after a good performance last week, but made loook that way after another late Crows fade out. (twice in 2 weeks they've done me over :cursin: ), and of course the Kanga's are constantly being under-rated.
Bottom line, this is 7th v. 15th.
Hawthorn have lost 6 straight games, 5 by more than this number, and are now without Mitchell, and to a lesser extend Brown and Bateman. (The 3 of them combined for 70 possessions in the first meeting this year).
The Kanga's last 3 in the dome have been 29 and 42 point wins over teams far better than Hawthorn, and a heart-breaking ( :mj07: ..sorry mate!) loss lastweek v. the Eagles.
Given Hawthorn lost by 55 points to an injury riddled Geelong 2 weeks ago, this one should get very ugly.


Other than that, is does look a bit of a tough week.
Collingwood should really get over a Hird-less Essendon (esp. if it's wet), but could you take them @ 1.60?
Geelong struggling, but Port @ Cat Park?
Thinking about taking the Saints -13.5, but hearing Gehgig may be out...Will wait for game time...also conditions may be a worry.
West Caost/Brisbane? Sit back and watch whatshould be a great game! Hunter and Embly out hurt the Eagles.
Melbourne/Sydney? Dees in a 'slump', but have played 3 very tough games. Sydney a decent record v. Melbourne, but would've liked a few more points.
Adelaide should beat the Dogs handily, but sick of them stalling,and only kicking 10 goals a game. No way I'd trust them with nearly 5 goals. Should win, but 1.25 is a bit skinny aswell.

Got a feeling that Freo is the sucker bet of the round.
One decent performance (even then they only had 1 more inside 50 than the Doggies) and everyone is back on the bandwagon.
Carlton are falling badly, but they've only been blown away in their last4, and they were all tough assignments.
Freo only won 1 game in their last 10 at the 'G by more than 14 points, and they only beat the Blues in Perth by 19 points in Rd. 5...and Carlton had more shoring shots.
And surely this will be an 'on' week for Fev after going kick-less last week?!

Anyway....Long story short....Go Roos! :D
 

Cartman88

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Feb 3, 2001
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Gold Coast Australia
My plays for this weekend:

Collingwood -7.5 vs Essendon (2 units)
St Kilda -13.5 vs Richmond
Melbourne -9.5 vs Sydney
Adelaide -26.5 vs Wstn Bulldogs
Carlton +16.5 vs Fremantle (2 units)


Hard not to be tempted by the West Coast this weekend with their recent domination of Brisbane - but will give this game a miss from a betting point of view and cheer on the Brisbane boys !!!!
 

bombercoops

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Mar 17, 2003
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Pies -8.5
Saints -13.5
Dees -8.5
Taking these three in what should be a great weekend of footy considering most of the games line up quite closely. West Coast/Brissy should be a cracker over there at subi!
 

PAWAQATSI

Kangaroos
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the land of confusion
MrChristo said:
and of course the Kanga's are constantly being under-rated.

Yeah....and you're the main offender Christo!!
You haven't rated us all year.....but now you want in...huh? Stay off the bandwagon you bastard!! :fingerc:

I think you're right but....my boys look like the pick of the round. Not much else getting me too excited. Do Geelong get enough experience back? Toss a coin on Friday night! West Coast v Brisbane....don't put a $ on it, just sit back and enjoy the spectacle. Adelaide fade outs are a concern. Carlton under 39.5 in an upset. Kangaroos by plenty.
 

MrChristo

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I have indeed!...But you kept agreeing! :D

Up until about round 10, they had the least inside 50's of all teams, and until the Freo game they'd had more shots in only 3 of 12 games.
The last 5 tho, they've been much better. They have the 7th best performing midfield (+3.4 inside 50's),and only Sydney, West Coast and Brisbane are allowing more goals/inside 50.
Just don't see how the Hawks put 80 on the board here....

...which leads me to a couple of goal kicking head-to-heads that I like:
Rocca to kick more goals than Williams @ 2.20 &
Hall to kick more goals than Nietz @ 2.20.

fwiw, I am starting to like you 'mech' pick too. Melbourne defense is really struggling, and Sydney really should be able to at least keep it close.
Melbourne allowing a shot every 1.77 entries in their last 5, only Dogs (1.76) and Calrton (1.71) are worse. Makes it tough to cover as favs.
 

PAWAQATSI

Kangaroos
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the land of confusion
Good stats Christo.

I'm just thinking that Sydney's #s from last week aren't legit coz of Geelong's weak team strength.
Maybe I'm outsmarting myself (once again!). Just not confident.

I really can't see the Hawks getting close to the Roos.
 

PAWAQATSI

Kangaroos
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the land of confusion
Tredrea over Kingsley @ $2.25!!!! WTF??

I agree on Hall over Neitz but not Rocca over Williams. Williams is their only real option to goal whereas the Roos will continue to go thru Thomo and as a consequence Rocca's game time will be far less than Williams.

???
 

MrChristo

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Well, how's my day been....

Didn't back the Saints like I was going to.
Didn't back Hall like I was going to.

Took Geelong/Port under 170 that lost by 3 points... in a game where a "goal" clearly hit the post, and also a free kick was given on the goal line for abusing the umpire directly after a goal!! (Why was the kick not in the centre???)....AND, Kingsley kicked a goal after the siren at HT!!!!

The way things are going, an umpire will pluck a totally moronic free kick to the Hawks, who slot a goal after the siren to lose by 21 points. I can just feel it.

Thinking about taking the Crows -26.5. Smith and McMohan out for the Dogs. Crows talking of 'revenge; for their loss earlier in the season. Dogs very under-manned, and will be severely out-sized v. a seasoned/solid Adelaide.
...But hey, I don't want to jinx Cartman, so I might not!
 

PAWAQATSI

Kangaroos
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the land of confusion
I took Tredrea (3) against Kingsley (5) :cursin: but got it most of it back by taking Hall (7) against Neitz (6) phew!!

I do have a small 5 teamer @ 10/1 wrapped up provided North win :mj09:

Inclined to go with Williams tomorrow Christo.






.......and beware the Cats!!! meow!!
 

MrChristo

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Dogs @ Adelaide...
0.7 over 184.5 (2.45)
0.3 165-184 (3.25) (Money back)


Dogs defense is stretched with a severe lack of big men. They've allowed 116 and 145 in their last 2 games, and av. 108 in their last 5. Only once in their last 9 games has the game total been under 185 and that was @ Sydney.
AAMI stadium is worse still. They've allowed 97+ in each of their last 10 games there @ 126!!..and only one of those games was les than 185. (and that was 183 in a game where the Dogs kicked 7.22!).
The last 9 meetings have gone over 185. Weather looks clear, so no reason this one won't either.
 
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