AFL Rd. 16.

[MrChristo]

Melbourne. (2.00)

Was hoping for slightly better odds than this, but I firmly believe that Melbourne will win this game.
A small win away from home against a floundering Collingwood and everyone has jumped back onboard the Freo bandwagon!! The fact remains that they are an ordinary side at best.
Just 2 wins in their last 5, inc. a 66 point belting at home by Geelong, and they are equal favs with 3rd placed Melbourne?
The Demons have shown that they travel ok this season, losing by just 5 to the red-hot Crows at Carrara, winning at both Sydney and Brisbane, and losing by just 22 points to the Eagles at Perth in a game which was closer than the final score showed.
The Melbourne defense continues to be under-rated, having allow 100 points just once all season (Adelaide), at an av. of just 78 ppg over their last 10.
Fremantle struggle to score (even at home), and in what looks to be a very even midfield battle, I expect the talented Melbourne forward line to kick a big enough score to win the game.

 

[MrChristo]

Port +14.5

Amazingly, Port have won their last 9 straight meetings v. St. Kilda?3 of the last 4 they have been underdogs.
But this pick is more about the venue that previous results. St. Kilda have shown that away from the smallish Dome, their defense drops right off. They allow a shot every 2.09 entries, which doesn?t look so bad, but if we take out the game at Sydney where the ground is also very small, and it was a rainy night, that drops to 1.89. (Compared to 2.20 at all grounds).
They?ve also shown that this ground in particular (in Launceston) doesn?t suit them, winning only 3 of 7, and losing all 4 that they?ve played here to Port Adelaide, by an av. of 37 points, and, more importantly, allowing an av. of 103 ppg.
St. Kilda have won just 4 games in their last 10 by more than 15 points.
Port showed on the weekend that they can stick with decent teams away from home, and despite having to travel again, I think they can at least keep this game close.