AFL Rd. 16.

[MrChristo]

33-25 [+4.82]

There's a good reason I haven't started this one earlier in the week too Coops...

...it's because I have no ****ing dea what's going to happen!! :shrug: :scared

Brisbane are about the only 'certainties', but even they've been poor, and there's also a slight whisper about that Black and Brown will both miss!!

The other 7 games could all quite easily go either way...nightmare for tipping.

I've got quite a few totals penned down, so hopefully I can sneak a few of those in...but until game time, I think it's gunna be pretty quiet around here... :SIB

 

[MrChristo]

Come on you blokes, it's Thursday! :mj07:

Port/Crows either team under 15.5 (3.20)

3 of last 4 Showdowns have been <15> (14, 8 & 6)...
...but this time, it's more about the game imo.
Crows clearly gunna struggle to kick a score...topped 74 ONCE in their last 7!...now no Burton, Porplyzia...
...Port same problems, just one more than 81 in last 5.
Low scoring, tight game all day I suspect...much like the last quarter @ Port last week.
Port have had an amazing 7 of last 10 at home decided under 15!...take out their smacking of Nth in the finals last year and their av. losing margin in the last 9 at home has been 4.2!! Incredible.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Agreed. Toughest round of the season thus far.


Will run my numbers tonight and see what I can churn out.

Funking hope I dont have 6 or 7 plays!! :scared

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Got nothing! :shrug:

Thats a surprise. Gunna be a quiet week for me.

 

[MrChristo]

I'm going the other way now...the deeper I look, the more I like the 'dogs, which, given it's such an even looking week is no huge suprise I guess...

Kangaroos +16.5

Kangas have had a super tough draw. (Albeit by their own doing!)
6 of last 9 interstate!!!...the 3 games at home...against the top 3!! Madness...
...and won 2 of them, lost to Geelong by just 13.

I haven't been rating them, but looking at this...Take out a terrible Rd. 1. performance, and they've lost just 2 games in Melbourne all season...against 2 of the top 3, by 16 and 13...
Won the last meeting with the 'Pies...lost last year's game (Rd. 1 2007) by just 3 points, despite having +7 I50's and 7 more shots.
Did give up 63 I50's to Collingwood this season, which is a bit of a worry I guess (-11), but had the shots, inc. Corey Jones' 1.5
No Rocca, Fraser kicked 4!
No McIntosh tho, and to a lessor extent no Edwards, but Petrie's stood up, and McMahon looks solid up forward.

Every time I go to ask 'what have Collingwood done?', the Geelong game whacks me in the face...
...but beaten freo (MCG), Richmod, WC, a depleted Bombers...Sydney as usual, a Crows team on the down-swing with injuries mid-game...and St. Kilda in the Dome, with 2 less I50's and 1 less shot.

Are the Kanga's any better than St. K.? Probably not really...(24 shots apiece @ GC says...well, exactly what we all think I guess! )...
...but do they have to be to keep this one close??

I understand the 'dangers' of direct comparisons, but both have played the Dogs in the Dome...
Nth... +5 I50's, +3 shots, -5 clearances, -6 contested pos. (won by 3)
Coll....+2 I50's, +0 shots, -2 and -6 (lost by 10)

Also pretty tight numbers v. Richmond at the MCG...although early in the year...

Basically, it's far closer than I first thought it was (or at least shapes up to be!)...if they tick up to 3.00 it's rediculous...having said that, there's every chance two and a half goals will come in very handy indeed!

'Roos have lost just 1 of last 7 at the Dome by more than 16...Collingwood won just 2 of last 7 there all up, and just 1 by more than 9.

Friday Night evens things up more still, with North losing just 1 of their last 10 by more than 13 (and that was away @ Adelaide).
'Pies 6-4 last 10 SU...but just 3-7 ats this number, and take out the Geelong pumping last game and they have an av. winning margin in the previous 9 of just 3 points!! [Friday Night games]


Essendon SU (2.35)

Just going with the value here...this one to me has Carlton/Richmond written all over it!
All the numbers point to a very tight game...they opened at 1.90 each, and now the Bombers have blown out to 2.35!
I know some of that is due to McVeigh missing (like Judd was for the Blues ), but still no Richo for the Tiges.
Essendon look much better at either end, so if they can at least break even in the middle they should be able to get the win.
Amazing figure of the week...Essendon have THE most I50's in the past 4 weeks!! Av. 59 per game...Geelong 58, Doggies 57!
Sure, they've played some crappy teams, but Richmond's have not been any better.
Wrong team favoured here imo. :shrug:

 

[MrChristo]

Can't bring myself to back my own boys...

...but the more I look at the Saints...

Hawks have just been doing enough...I know I got burnt by them last week, but a) Taking Sydney outside of NSW was silly for a start...and b) It was really only 5 minutes of football, sparked by a dubious mark, that took it out to the margin.
Last 8 have Hawks scraping by Port and Melbourne...pumped by the Dogs, belted Essendon (more on that shortly!), scraped by Crows, beaten by North and beating 2 poor traveling teams at home.

In the same 8, Saints have travelled 3 times, lost by 9 to Collingwood with +2 I50's and +1 shot, belted Melbourne, beaten by Dogs...scraped by Freo in a stinker! and beaten Carlton easily enough.

Both have played a Lucas-less Essendon in the dome this year;
Saints: +16 shots, +17 I50's, +15 contested, 1.70 shots per entry, 2.29 allowed...
Hawks: +16 shots, +13 I50's, +18 contested, 1.57 shots per entry, 2.21 allowed...

Obviously Hawthorn forward line looks far more likely...but I suspect Hudgeton will take Roughead, who he held in the 2nd meeting last year (didn't play in the first...although Barry Brooks, Brad Howard and Justin Sweeny did!! :scared )...and Franklin kicked his 5.5 in a losing effort. (Although Williams missed.)

If Saints can bottle up Hawthorn's run like they did to Carlton last week (who were flying stats-wise at the time!), and they tend to do just just at the dome...then they should be able to keep this one in the balance.

EDIT: Just to go on with that a bit...take out two games in which they were hurt badly by being hurt badly...Richmond they lost McGuire and Riewoldt mid-game, Freo they had Dal Santo and Milne out and lost Hayes at 1/4 time...
...they haven't been worse than -2 I50's for any game in Melbourne...and that included Geelong, Bulldogs and Collingwood.

...tempted... :shrug:

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Good luck with my Roos C :toast:

I've had a bite of the 'either side winning under 15.5' & a little more 'either under 24.5'

We do push these fockers close and tight but I expect to come up short in the end.

Preparing to grab the six-pack and land on the couch 'Al Bundy style' for some friday night footy

Come on you ROOOOOOOSSSSS



Hmmmm..........wonder where Coops is? Out pram shopping perhaps!! :mj07:

 

[MrChristo]

PRAMBULATOR!! :scared

Coops?! :nono:

Never in doubt, Pawa, my good man! :00hour Great win by your boys.

That last Harvey goal hurt us both tho by the looks...I had Kangas by 13 in tipping...your under 15.5 would have been more than handy.

Still, I can safely say that neither of us are complaining!

Crows v. Port under 180.5 (1.98)

Done some manipulating of the old <150, 151-160...type set-up.
Two terribly low scoring teams, one with their forward line in shambles, and with rain/wind forecast aswell!
Last 9 meetings haven't topped 180 @ 149!
Like I said earlier...tight, low scoring game expected. (By me ayway! :142smilie )

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Glad you cashed christo. Inspired second half by my lads aftrter a low first half. Funk i love tgo be=at the collingwood scum. yeah an extra pie goal woulda been nice but not gunna complain. smashed and loving it :00hour

i love my teaM after nights like this

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Hey did you know about the 75 & 77 premiership teams doin a lap before the game C? I f id known it would have made the points start worth even more for sure. Surely fired them up for a big one

 

[MrChristo]

No mate. Didn't know that either. :shrug:

Geelong v. Doggies under 190.5 (1.85)

Two teams known most for their scoring, but both have been playing great defense lately.
Dogs haven't allowed 90 points in 6 weeks, and Geelong haven't given up more than 56 in the last 4...
...and have given up more than 82 just one time in their last 10 at home.
Just one of the last 6 meetings have topped 189 points...they scored 222 in 2002 when they combined for 35.12!! :scared
Some rain, and wind about down there too...

Essendon v. Richmond over 210.5 (2.44)

Fletcher a late out...Bombers have had some relatively low scorers lately, but Freo, WC, Crows can't score...plus the solid defense of Sydney, Crows and Hawthorn...
237 v. Carlton and 273 v. Brisbane...
Richmond gone over this number 3 of last 5 @ 227.
Last meeting was just 182 in Rd. 9, but only 90 I50's...a very low number...Richmond av'ing 102 in last 4, and Essendon 112!!
...also no Lucas in that game.

Great odds for a decent number imo.

 

[MrChristo]

Well, that was one way to get an over, over!

A rushed point with about 12 seconds left on the clock! :00hour :00hour

Very, very unlucky were the Bombers. Lost Fletcher before the game, and were 3 men down minutes into the 3rd! :scared
Still got to within a goal, and missed a couple of easy ones late. :cursin:

Carlton v. Sydney either under 24.5 (1.95)

Swans haven't won a game outside of NSW by more than 19 points (Brisbane)...and all their away games follow the same pattern.
They just don't get the ball forward, av. just 42 I50's per game...but their defense keeps them in games...which will be more evident even v. the Fevola conscious Blues.
Their 2 games in the Dome this season have ended in a draw and a 2 point loss...and some comparisons are amazingly close.
Both have played @ Port...Swans +1 shot, Blues +2;
@ West Coast...Swans +0, Blues +2
Forget the last 2 meetings, both being @ Sydney, but the 3 previous ended in 7, 25, 11 point margins.
Looks like a close one either way to me.

 

[Jig-Jag]

I bet you were cursing when you watched that game with the total. Losing by 1 would have sucked:scared The .5 always sucks though. Nice win though with the over.

 

[MrChristo]

Oh, I was cursing alright! :cursin:

...more about my Doggies going down in a screaming heap tbh, but yeah, that last quarter barrage killing the total sucked too.
(Although, it was 10.5 points, not just the half )

Well, what promised to be a slow week has seen a bet on just about every game! :SIB ...

Freo v. Melbourne under 199.5 (1.90)

Big total due more to the last meeting than any kind of current form.
Melbourne have had more than 24 shots just once since that game, and have av'd just under 21 in each of their last 8 @ 77 ppg. They've lost Robertson (4.3) and Green (2.0) from the last time they played Freo, and clearly struggle in WA anyway, not topping 93 in their last 6 over @ Subi @ just 80 ppg.
Freo are struggling to score themselves, even if we take out last week's horror @ Geelong, they've topped 91 just once in their last 6.
Both teams av'ing about 93 total I50's and just 21 shots each in their last 4...
...and if Essendon couldn't push Freo over 190 last home game, I suspect Melbourne will also struggle.

 

[bombercoops]

Yeh, nice late hit on that ess/rich over C! Wow, must have been the best rushed behind you've ever witnessed. Spared you a thought at the time because of your total. Anyways, it gone home for you.
Was in hospital all week with a few 'issues' so missed the weekends action. Probably a good thing on the back of last week anyways. Surprised the hawks got rolled by the saints in the second half last night also. Kinda takes away from this weeks game against the cats who are clearly the best side in the comp still. Hawks or dogs to fill the second fiddle position come GF day tho IMO.
Onto next week....

Btw, already have the pram sewn up guys among everything else but thanks for the support! lol! Wouldn't let that get in the way of my capping anyways.......guess that'll all change in about, ummm, yeh, 5 weeks from now!! Wish me luck!

 

[MrChristo]

5 weeks away and you're in for the clap?! :scared

'Bout time you woke up to yourself young man! :mj07: ( )

Thanks mate, great weekend for me in the end.

6-2 for +5.37...good work Crows late

Still got my doubts about Geelong...but more on that later... :0corn

39-27 (+10.19)

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Hope its nothing serious coops.

Perhaps its an allergy to aussie chicks, having been away with the asians so long?!! :shrug:

 

[bombercoops]

:mj07: :mj07: :mj07:
Well, most first time aussies (or westerners for that matter) travelling to asia probably do experience that C! Almost like a welcoming present......how's things paw? lol!
But ummm, yeh, not for me thanks christo! lmao! Nice chuckle tho! Maybe you can shed some tassie light on some of the symptoms? :142smilie
No, nothing too serious pawa, all good here mate. Been great to get back here and see some 'cans' around the place tho! Geez, I've missed the spectate! :SIB

 

[MrChristo]

Maybe you can shed some tassie light on some of the symptoms? :142smilie

Safe here mate...

...too cold to take your pants off! :mj07:

 

[jpblack34]

When Coops lived with me back in 2002-2003, guy was pissing green for months. Don't let him kid ya, he's been clappin all his life.

PS, ask him about his troubles during childhood hooking up with an older mate.

Coops, hope you are okay!!!