3-0 last week.
10-2-1 in own thread.
20-11-1 since first posting in Rd. 10.
ok...off the bat (er ball?) to me this looks like a really shitty week to get involved in...
I couldn't possibly take the Eagles as big road favs...
The av. -4 I50's per game on the road this season, and their once great D has totally disappeared...allowing a shot every 1.74 entries!!! (4th worst behind Carlton, Ess and Melbourne!!)
I kow you can argue their last 2 losses were due to being very undermanned, but still...4 wins in their last 10, and only 1 on the road...in Adelaide where they had 3 less I50's and just one more shot.
The problem here is obviously the Dogs. No Cross, Griffen, Hahn, Gilbee...West? Gunna make it very tough.
Geelong av. +10 I50's and defense of 2.72...
...On Friday they were +12 and 2.89.
So, given the Eagles are -4 and 1.74...
Dogs lost by just 15 @ Perth this year, and their last 2 meetings outside Perth have been Dogs win by 43 @ 2.40, and lost by 7 at the dome as 2.30 'dogs...winning both ats.
Reasonably big lean towards Doggies + the points...but will probably wimp out!!
Bloody coaching changes...Carlton av'ing 37 shots against in last 5 games!!...61 I50's (-12), the worst D by a fair way...
Saints allow 23 shots both at the dome and in their last 5...
Saints have won last 5 meetings by 43, 92, 80, 108, 91...
You'd have to take St. Kilda -40ish wouldn't you??
Freo/Geelong...Geelong deserve to start favs in all their games, no doubt.
Think Freo might be getting a bit too much respect after last week...good win, but -7 I50's and the same amount of shots, just rediculously good conversion made them look far better.
Their form is still shit...statistically lucky wins over Crows and St. Kilda (even Hawthorn), and then beaten Richmond and Carlton.
Still, how much has Harvey changed their outlook? Million dollar question.
Geelong won by 66 over there last year...1.60 looks pretty good really.
I might be more tempted by the total tho.
Collingwood should win, and 1.35 looks decent.
Brisbane have flogged Melbourne and Carlton...caught West Coast at a VERY good time, before that hadn't won a game for nearly 2 months.
Brown kicks 10 this week...now he's up against the 2nd best D in the comp. Won't happen again.
In fact, their last 4 games have been against 4 of the bottom 6 (inc. the bottom 3) for defense!
Always tough to take the Pies on a decent spread, given their poor conversion, but I can't see them dropping this game.
Might hold out for 1.40 somewhere hopefully.
Will again be interested in a total I reckon...
Yeah, yeah. Swans win, but a bit untouchable at 1.10 -40ish no doubt.
Sydney have won and covered 8 of their last 9 at home, winning by an av. of 45...
Kangas midfield has gone from strength to strength lately. They are now the 3rd best defensive group...allow just 47 I50's in their last 5...Hawthorn still best @ 46.
Points to a low scorer, but given it's in Launceston, I'm sure the books will have a nice low number in mind anyway.
Tough to pick a winner...home ground to Hawthorn, but Kangas won in Geelong and Gold Coast already this year.
Hoping for a total around the 175 mark, don't reckon I'll get it.
Crows certainly interest me @ 1.60+. Essendon have fallen right away lately. Won just 1 of their last 5...and they got lucky in that one v. Melbourne.
Only Richmond and Carlton have worse I50 numbers in their last 5 (Essendon -8)...also 3rd worst D behind Melbourne and Carlton (1.73) allowing 33 shots per game.
Even inside the dome this season they av. -6 I50's
Crows been better away from home this season, play a more open game, but still play solid D, alloing just 22 shots per game...down to 21 in their last 5.
Would love to see Rutten back...Lloyd/Lucas could go ok without him there, but the midfield should get over-run anyway.
All the talk about Adelaide having NEVER beaten the Bombers in Melbourne is totally irrelevant...they haven't met there since 2002, and I doubt Adelaide were ever priced better than 3.00!
Crows have won 7 of last 9 @ the dome...think they win this one too.
Now, this is the game that I'm having the most trouble with!! I did all the stats, came to the (pretty easy, let's be honest!) conclusion that Port would win...looked at the odds to see them 1.15ish!!!!
You what now??
They beat Richmond...lost 4 straight (inc. Carlton), beat Essendon with ONE more scoring shot...won @ Brisbane with 13 less I50's and 3 less shots...lost to the Doggies, got West Coast with 24 fit men and beat Richmond again!! 1.15??!!
Of course, the problem being I guess, that Melbourne are comparable to Richmond.
Even tho Melborne have fallen away, they still av. just -5 I50's last 5, and a D of 1.72...Port's is an unspectacular 1.90...
Some very straight kicking has padded Port's margins too...at home they av. +6 shots, +5 in their last 5...
Almost will be tempted by +33ish...having said that, it's almost impossible to jump on Melbourne given they have lost theri last 5 @ AAMI by 72, 73 (PA), 62 (PA), 54 and 58.
Like the Crows, probably Collingwood aswell...and will be sweating on 3 totals...
...oh, and the two 'dogs that could both realistically get SMASHED!! :shrug:
10-2-1 in own thread.
20-11-1 since first posting in Rd. 10.
ok...off the bat (er ball?) to me this looks like a really shitty week to get involved in...
I couldn't possibly take the Eagles as big road favs...
The av. -4 I50's per game on the road this season, and their once great D has totally disappeared...allowing a shot every 1.74 entries!!! (4th worst behind Carlton, Ess and Melbourne!!)
I kow you can argue their last 2 losses were due to being very undermanned, but still...4 wins in their last 10, and only 1 on the road...in Adelaide where they had 3 less I50's and just one more shot.
The problem here is obviously the Dogs. No Cross, Griffen, Hahn, Gilbee...West? Gunna make it very tough.
Geelong av. +10 I50's and defense of 2.72...
...On Friday they were +12 and 2.89.
So, given the Eagles are -4 and 1.74...
Dogs lost by just 15 @ Perth this year, and their last 2 meetings outside Perth have been Dogs win by 43 @ 2.40, and lost by 7 at the dome as 2.30 'dogs...winning both ats.
Reasonably big lean towards Doggies + the points...but will probably wimp out!!
Bloody coaching changes...Carlton av'ing 37 shots against in last 5 games!!...61 I50's (-12), the worst D by a fair way...
Saints allow 23 shots both at the dome and in their last 5...
Saints have won last 5 meetings by 43, 92, 80, 108, 91...
You'd have to take St. Kilda -40ish wouldn't you??
Freo/Geelong...Geelong deserve to start favs in all their games, no doubt.
Think Freo might be getting a bit too much respect after last week...good win, but -7 I50's and the same amount of shots, just rediculously good conversion made them look far better.
Their form is still shit...statistically lucky wins over Crows and St. Kilda (even Hawthorn), and then beaten Richmond and Carlton.
Still, how much has Harvey changed their outlook? Million dollar question.
Geelong won by 66 over there last year...1.60 looks pretty good really.
I might be more tempted by the total tho.
Collingwood should win, and 1.35 looks decent.
Brisbane have flogged Melbourne and Carlton...caught West Coast at a VERY good time, before that hadn't won a game for nearly 2 months.
Brown kicks 10 this week...now he's up against the 2nd best D in the comp. Won't happen again.
In fact, their last 4 games have been against 4 of the bottom 6 (inc. the bottom 3) for defense!
Always tough to take the Pies on a decent spread, given their poor conversion, but I can't see them dropping this game.
Might hold out for 1.40 somewhere hopefully.
Will again be interested in a total I reckon...
Yeah, yeah. Swans win, but a bit untouchable at 1.10 -40ish no doubt.
Sydney have won and covered 8 of their last 9 at home, winning by an av. of 45...
Kangas midfield has gone from strength to strength lately. They are now the 3rd best defensive group...allow just 47 I50's in their last 5...Hawthorn still best @ 46.
Points to a low scorer, but given it's in Launceston, I'm sure the books will have a nice low number in mind anyway.
Tough to pick a winner...home ground to Hawthorn, but Kangas won in Geelong and Gold Coast already this year.
Hoping for a total around the 175 mark, don't reckon I'll get it.
Crows certainly interest me @ 1.60+. Essendon have fallen right away lately. Won just 1 of their last 5...and they got lucky in that one v. Melbourne.
Only Richmond and Carlton have worse I50 numbers in their last 5 (Essendon -8)...also 3rd worst D behind Melbourne and Carlton (1.73) allowing 33 shots per game.
Even inside the dome this season they av. -6 I50's
Crows been better away from home this season, play a more open game, but still play solid D, alloing just 22 shots per game...down to 21 in their last 5.
Would love to see Rutten back...Lloyd/Lucas could go ok without him there, but the midfield should get over-run anyway.
All the talk about Adelaide having NEVER beaten the Bombers in Melbourne is totally irrelevant...they haven't met there since 2002, and I doubt Adelaide were ever priced better than 3.00!
Crows have won 7 of last 9 @ the dome...think they win this one too.
Now, this is the game that I'm having the most trouble with!! I did all the stats, came to the (pretty easy, let's be honest!) conclusion that Port would win...looked at the odds to see them 1.15ish!!!!
You what now??
They beat Richmond...lost 4 straight (inc. Carlton), beat Essendon with ONE more scoring shot...won @ Brisbane with 13 less I50's and 3 less shots...lost to the Doggies, got West Coast with 24 fit men and beat Richmond again!! 1.15??!!
Of course, the problem being I guess, that Melbourne are comparable to Richmond.
Even tho Melborne have fallen away, they still av. just -5 I50's last 5, and a D of 1.72...Port's is an unspectacular 1.90...
Some very straight kicking has padded Port's margins too...at home they av. +6 shots, +5 in their last 5...
Almost will be tempted by +33ish...having said that, it's almost impossible to jump on Melbourne given they have lost theri last 5 @ AAMI by 72, 73 (PA), 62 (PA), 54 and 58.
Like the Crows, probably Collingwood aswell...and will be sweating on 3 totals...
...oh, and the two 'dogs that could both realistically get SMASHED!! :shrug:
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