St. Kilda -5.5
The Saints have a couple of major advantages here. Firstly, the Eagles record at the Dome is poor. They lost easily to Collingwood 2 weeks ago (St. Kilda defeated Collingwood by 59 points at the same ground 2 weeks earlier), and only snuck passed Essendon late in rd. 8.
The other is the lack of rest the Eagles will have this week. Coming into a Friday night game in Melbourne, off a Sunday afternoon game in Perth will not be easy.
St. Kilda have av'd +14 I'50 in their lasty 5 game (admittedly against some poor opp), but even in the Rd. 1 loss @ Perth, the Saints had just 2 I50's less than the Eagles.
West Coast allow 4 more I50's a game on the road, and their scoring also suffers, going from a shot every 1.85 entries overall to 1.98 away.
The Saints at the Dome are very hard to score against, allowing just 43 I50's and a shot every 2.31 entries this season.
I doubt the Eagles will risk Cox on the very hard Dome surface, coming back off a broken Collarbone, Embly also very unlikely and Hunter out, hurt some match-up options for them aswell.
Big stage Friday night, and I think the Saints are deserved favourites and really shuld be able to cover the 5.5.
Melbourne -31.5
Very low spread for a top 3 team v. bottom team, imo. Melbourne have shown that they are the real deal as a legitimate top 4 team, where Carlton just aren't getting any better!
...I guess on the surface, Carlton have only lost one of their last 7 games by more than 30 points!...But in reality there was a solid performance v. a faltering West Coast, a 19 point loss to the poor Kangaroos (8 less I50's), 13 less I50's and 10 less shots in a 15 point loss @ Brisbane, who kicked TERRIBLY (8.23!!), a 65 point loss to a pretty ordinary Geelong at this venue (16 less I50's), a 30 point loss to the tiring Bulldogs, a draw against an Essendon team that had won just one game, and a very flattering 18 point loss last week with 13 less I50's, 8 less shots and a 48 point margin with about 5 minutes to play. (v. Freo who are well-known for their lapses)
Melbourne have won 8 of their last 10 games, with the two losses both being in Perth. 5 of the 8 wins by more than this, with close wins away @ Brisbane, home to a top-6 St. Kilda and and 18 point win that should have been a LOT more v. Richmond.
Carlton have allowed a league high 57 I50's a game in their last 5!!, and Melbourne, who are very efficient up forward will be able to take full advantage. They have scored every 1.78 entries in their last 5, 3rd only behind Sydney and Adelaide.
The Demons' defense continues to be under-rated (helped by the pressure their mid-field puts on), and they haven't allowed 100+ since Adelaide in Rd. 4, at an av. of just 81 points over their last 10.
In Carlton's last 10 they have allowed LESS than 30 shots at goal just twice!!
Pretty sure this one gets very messy, very early.
Sydney -21.5
Forget last week, the Essendon 'revival' is over! Their last 3 games absolutely flatter the Bombers, but a close game v. St. Kilda in the pouring rain, a win and a draw against 2 teams that simply played ZERO defense in the last 2...esp. last week, when Brisbane put them under no pressure what-so-ever, and even played around putting their Full-Back to Full-Forward in the last quarter, in a game they were clearly not interested in winning.
Heading to Sydney, who are still in the hunt for a top 4 spot will be somewhat more difficult!
In their last 5, the Swans have allowed the fewest I50's in the AFL, @ just 41 per game!!..a shot just every 2.18 entries, @ 66 points per game over that time.
If we take out the game v. the Saints in the pouring rain (19 shots), Essendon have allowed an av of 31 shots per game in their last 10!...and although Sydney haven't been lighting up the scoreboard at home this season, they are definately showing some signs of life, with 31, 22 (Adelaide) and 31 shots at home in their last 3.
Sydney have lost 2 of their last 5 at home, but to St. Kilda and Adelaide (top 6 teams), beaten the Bulldogs by 26, Fremantle by 33 and Richmond by 48 last game, all of which are far better teams than Essendon.
The Saints have a couple of major advantages here. Firstly, the Eagles record at the Dome is poor. They lost easily to Collingwood 2 weeks ago (St. Kilda defeated Collingwood by 59 points at the same ground 2 weeks earlier), and only snuck passed Essendon late in rd. 8.
The other is the lack of rest the Eagles will have this week. Coming into a Friday night game in Melbourne, off a Sunday afternoon game in Perth will not be easy.
St. Kilda have av'd +14 I'50 in their lasty 5 game (admittedly against some poor opp), but even in the Rd. 1 loss @ Perth, the Saints had just 2 I50's less than the Eagles.
West Coast allow 4 more I50's a game on the road, and their scoring also suffers, going from a shot every 1.85 entries overall to 1.98 away.
The Saints at the Dome are very hard to score against, allowing just 43 I50's and a shot every 2.31 entries this season.
I doubt the Eagles will risk Cox on the very hard Dome surface, coming back off a broken Collarbone, Embly also very unlikely and Hunter out, hurt some match-up options for them aswell.
Big stage Friday night, and I think the Saints are deserved favourites and really shuld be able to cover the 5.5.
Melbourne -31.5
Very low spread for a top 3 team v. bottom team, imo. Melbourne have shown that they are the real deal as a legitimate top 4 team, where Carlton just aren't getting any better!
...I guess on the surface, Carlton have only lost one of their last 7 games by more than 30 points!...But in reality there was a solid performance v. a faltering West Coast, a 19 point loss to the poor Kangaroos (8 less I50's), 13 less I50's and 10 less shots in a 15 point loss @ Brisbane, who kicked TERRIBLY (8.23!!), a 65 point loss to a pretty ordinary Geelong at this venue (16 less I50's), a 30 point loss to the tiring Bulldogs, a draw against an Essendon team that had won just one game, and a very flattering 18 point loss last week with 13 less I50's, 8 less shots and a 48 point margin with about 5 minutes to play. (v. Freo who are well-known for their lapses)
Melbourne have won 8 of their last 10 games, with the two losses both being in Perth. 5 of the 8 wins by more than this, with close wins away @ Brisbane, home to a top-6 St. Kilda and and 18 point win that should have been a LOT more v. Richmond.
Carlton have allowed a league high 57 I50's a game in their last 5!!, and Melbourne, who are very efficient up forward will be able to take full advantage. They have scored every 1.78 entries in their last 5, 3rd only behind Sydney and Adelaide.
The Demons' defense continues to be under-rated (helped by the pressure their mid-field puts on), and they haven't allowed 100+ since Adelaide in Rd. 4, at an av. of just 81 points over their last 10.
In Carlton's last 10 they have allowed LESS than 30 shots at goal just twice!!
Pretty sure this one gets very messy, very early.
Sydney -21.5
Forget last week, the Essendon 'revival' is over! Their last 3 games absolutely flatter the Bombers, but a close game v. St. Kilda in the pouring rain, a win and a draw against 2 teams that simply played ZERO defense in the last 2...esp. last week, when Brisbane put them under no pressure what-so-ever, and even played around putting their Full-Back to Full-Forward in the last quarter, in a game they were clearly not interested in winning.
Heading to Sydney, who are still in the hunt for a top 4 spot will be somewhat more difficult!
In their last 5, the Swans have allowed the fewest I50's in the AFL, @ just 41 per game!!..a shot just every 2.18 entries, @ 66 points per game over that time.
If we take out the game v. the Saints in the pouring rain (19 shots), Essendon have allowed an av of 31 shots per game in their last 10!...and although Sydney haven't been lighting up the scoreboard at home this season, they are definately showing some signs of life, with 31, 22 (Adelaide) and 31 shots at home in their last 3.
Sydney have lost 2 of their last 5 at home, but to St. Kilda and Adelaide (top 6 teams), beaten the Bulldogs by 26, Fremantle by 33 and Richmond by 48 last game, all of which are far better teams than Essendon.
