49-32 (+17.44)
I just can't get my head around what a nasty, nasty week this is ahead...
I know I'm going to look stupid talking down the 'Roos chances, but the numbers say they have just been going along...
They've relied (in their last 4) on a defensive midifeld...holding teams to just 43 I50's, but they still av. under 50 per game themselves, and their backline stil tends to leak when it gets there (better only than Richmond and the Doggies)...
Carlton have 2nd highest I50's in last 4 @ 57.5 and are scoring at a healthy 1.73, again, second only to Geelong!
It's fair to say the Port game has blown their I50 av's sky high, but the scoring has been constantly good.
But, yeah, against solid defensive middles, the Blues have struggled...42-53 v. Adelaide, 49-52 v. Sydney, 41-66 v. Geelong, 49-55 @ Adelaide...
Kangas, but really, 1.75 is about right? :shrug:
West Coast absolutely have been terrible on the road all season, but got within 22 of a relatively strong Essendon team 3 trips ago. (were never going to beat Hawthorn or Brisbane)...
...Melbourne lost to Ess. by 16 (6 less shots to WC 7), Bombers had no Lucas, no McVeigh and Melbourne had Davey playing who I think is pretty important to them.
I really think WC are a shout...impossible to put $ on them, but again, odds are probably right.
Numbers for Melborne's last 4 and WC away are unbelievably identical!
Eagles on the road have copped Crows flying, Sydney flying, Bulldogs flying, caught Collingwood on their 2 game flying streak! , pushed Kangas, close to Ess, @ Brisbane and Hawthorn...not easy...
Port a chance? Or do we assume the drop off last week is for the duration?
Again, last 4 numbers are staggeringly close...even with Port's last 2 horrors at the Dome...
Home form has been ok, but how far do we want to go back?? More I50's v. Freo but beaten, a win v. Crows, who have since showed they're still every bit as good (better) than than Collingwood...
...and got within 2 kicks of Nth, Rich and Carlton...
So which is it? Happy to be home, or given up on the season completely?
18 looks a lot of points to me...but really have no idea what will happen!
Crows back to their defensive best last 4, but 3 @ AAMI and 1 v. the toothless Swans.
Bombers really dropped off last 2, and depsite the scoreline really did dominate Essendon last meeting at home.
I guess their road form has been ok...just the loss @ WC was the bad one (got injuries in-game v. Coll)...
...BUT, tight game @ the Dome last year with Bombers getting up as slight dogs when Crows were in better form last year.
Lucas played, but Burton and Welsh kicked 7 between them.
Lucas stays out Crows will win...if not?...
Brisbane have to be a show too, but books clearly know it!...Won just 1 of their last 6, but amazingly just that 1 has been at home!
They're a different team at home, av. 55-47 I50's, compared to 47-53 on the road! Dogs with massive problems down back (as much as anything!), given up an av. of 32.5 shots in the last 4!!
I think more worrying for the Doggies has been their total dry up of scoring! After dropping below 29 shots just one time in their first 12 games (@ Sydney), they have topped 28 just once in their last 7!
That's a drop off of over 6 shots per game. :scared
BUT, Dogs have won last 3 up @ Brisbane (all as favs tho)...and really, not convinced Brisbane have played all that much talent at home this year...
...Collingwood (meh), beaten by Sydney and Hawthorn, Melbourne, St. Kilda can't travel, Kangas can't travel, Freo (lucky to escape, just 2 more shots), Crows (decent win) and West Coast.
I have no clues about any of these games!! :mj07:
Geelong beat Swans...there we go. 1 winner...
2...Hawthorn win, but I was thinking -20 would be a bit closer to the mark.
3? Freo?...Been pretty impressive last 4, but only played 3 bottom teams and a struggling Sydney...
Saints were happily beating Hawthorn by 5 goals a month ago, and have since lost to West Coast and Collingwood!
Lost 4 of 5 away from home, the only win v. an equally poor travelling 'Roos, with -2 I50's and same shots.
Freo won last 2 meetings at home comfortably...
...still, you all know my thoughts on taking Freo in the red!
How many times have I mentioned this is a god awful week of AFL?! :cursin:
No bets for me at this stage...maybe a total or two...
Flat out trying to pick a winner! :0corn
I just can't get my head around what a nasty, nasty week this is ahead...
I know I'm going to look stupid talking down the 'Roos chances, but the numbers say they have just been going along...
They've relied (in their last 4) on a defensive midifeld...holding teams to just 43 I50's, but they still av. under 50 per game themselves, and their backline stil tends to leak when it gets there (better only than Richmond and the Doggies)...
Carlton have 2nd highest I50's in last 4 @ 57.5 and are scoring at a healthy 1.73, again, second only to Geelong!
It's fair to say the Port game has blown their I50 av's sky high, but the scoring has been constantly good.
But, yeah, against solid defensive middles, the Blues have struggled...42-53 v. Adelaide, 49-52 v. Sydney, 41-66 v. Geelong, 49-55 @ Adelaide...
Kangas, but really, 1.75 is about right? :shrug:
West Coast absolutely have been terrible on the road all season, but got within 22 of a relatively strong Essendon team 3 trips ago. (were never going to beat Hawthorn or Brisbane)...
...Melbourne lost to Ess. by 16 (6 less shots to WC 7), Bombers had no Lucas, no McVeigh and Melbourne had Davey playing who I think is pretty important to them.
I really think WC are a shout...impossible to put $ on them, but again, odds are probably right.
Numbers for Melborne's last 4 and WC away are unbelievably identical!
Eagles on the road have copped Crows flying, Sydney flying, Bulldogs flying, caught Collingwood on their 2 game flying streak! , pushed Kangas, close to Ess, @ Brisbane and Hawthorn...not easy...
Port a chance? Or do we assume the drop off last week is for the duration?
Again, last 4 numbers are staggeringly close...even with Port's last 2 horrors at the Dome...
Home form has been ok, but how far do we want to go back?? More I50's v. Freo but beaten, a win v. Crows, who have since showed they're still every bit as good (better) than than Collingwood...
...and got within 2 kicks of Nth, Rich and Carlton...
So which is it? Happy to be home, or given up on the season completely?
18 looks a lot of points to me...but really have no idea what will happen!
Crows back to their defensive best last 4, but 3 @ AAMI and 1 v. the toothless Swans.
Bombers really dropped off last 2, and depsite the scoreline really did dominate Essendon last meeting at home.
I guess their road form has been ok...just the loss @ WC was the bad one (got injuries in-game v. Coll)...
...BUT, tight game @ the Dome last year with Bombers getting up as slight dogs when Crows were in better form last year.
Lucas played, but Burton and Welsh kicked 7 between them.
Lucas stays out Crows will win...if not?...
Brisbane have to be a show too, but books clearly know it!...Won just 1 of their last 6, but amazingly just that 1 has been at home!
They're a different team at home, av. 55-47 I50's, compared to 47-53 on the road! Dogs with massive problems down back (as much as anything!), given up an av. of 32.5 shots in the last 4!!
I think more worrying for the Doggies has been their total dry up of scoring! After dropping below 29 shots just one time in their first 12 games (@ Sydney), they have topped 28 just once in their last 7!
That's a drop off of over 6 shots per game. :scared
BUT, Dogs have won last 3 up @ Brisbane (all as favs tho)...and really, not convinced Brisbane have played all that much talent at home this year...
...Collingwood (meh), beaten by Sydney and Hawthorn, Melbourne, St. Kilda can't travel, Kangas can't travel, Freo (lucky to escape, just 2 more shots), Crows (decent win) and West Coast.
I have no clues about any of these games!! :mj07:
Geelong beat Swans...there we go. 1 winner...
2...Hawthorn win, but I was thinking -20 would be a bit closer to the mark.
3? Freo?...Been pretty impressive last 4, but only played 3 bottom teams and a struggling Sydney...
Saints were happily beating Hawthorn by 5 goals a month ago, and have since lost to West Coast and Collingwood!
Lost 4 of 5 away from home, the only win v. an equally poor travelling 'Roos, with -2 I50's and same shots.
Freo won last 2 meetings at home comfortably...
...still, you all know my thoughts on taking Freo in the red!
How many times have I mentioned this is a god awful week of AFL?! :cursin:
No bets for me at this stage...maybe a total or two...
Flat out trying to pick a winner! :0corn
