Sydney $2.25.
How are Carlton favs at the SCG?! I thought it was a typo until I looked at a couple of other books. Madness.
A massive win over a bottom 2 team a season does not maketh...(or something equally as philosophical )...A hard fought win over a not so good out-of-state Brisbane...then no statistical 'gimmicks' last week, the were squarely beaten by the Bombers in just about every area.
Swans beaten by just about the best team in the comp. at ther pet ground (St. K), and struggled to score agaisnt a solid defensive home team @ Brisbane (Still had just 3 less shots)...
...but already after 3 rounds, the Blues have the second worst defensive numbers in the AFL. (a score every 1.72 entries...only Freo worse), so they will have to dominate the middle to get a win here.
Sydney score so well at the SCG as it is...av. 120 ppg (31 shots) in their last 10 (7 last year).
Have won 10 straight v. Carlton, 6 straight v. Blues at SCG, 3 as big dogs...
Really does seem a silly price.
...but if you want silly prices, Port @ 3.85!!
As I said last week, the Hawks defensive midfield pressure just isn't there so far this year, allowing 51 I50's per game, up from about 42 last year!!...which is exposing their poor defense...well, agaist anyone who can score that is, which North clearly can't [but more on that later ]
Were allowing a shot every 1.4 entries before North butchered 54 chances last week! :cursin:
Just 3 more I50's last week, but tellingly have had less contested ball and clearances (62-90 last 2!) in every game so far...one win, against a bad team.
You could argue Port's form too, beating Melbourne and av. Ess and losing to the "lowly" Eagles (although they were very good at home even last year)...but a scoring efficiency equal 3rd in the AFL with Carlton and the Doggies (1.76) will mean that they will score some points.
They scored every 1.59 entries in last year's game (@ Launceston) but held to just 42 I50's and lost by just 15 points, unlikely to be the case again here.
Port played at the MCG just once last year and belted North by 76, won 3 of 4 in 2007 losing the GF...
Yeah sure, no Cassisi, Peter (and maybe Shaun) Burgoine, but Hawthorn can barely field a team! Add Birchill and Ellis to the list from last week...If Taylor doesn't get up I'd nearly have Port as favs!
Crows +23.5
I just don't think Geelong have been that impressive so far. Barely scraped passed a god-awful Richmond, and got a bit lucky last week with Collingwood's kicking for goal...I certainly don't think the Crows are any worse than those two.
Lost at home to St. Kilda, but Saints allowing an amazing 39 I50's per game, Geelong 49.
Both have played Collingwood and Crows did statistically better (better still since they were on the road) [+4 shots to +2, +6 I50's to +0, +10 contested possessions to +3]...
...tough to pick them to win given the Cats have won a million of their last million and 2, but 23 points does look like a lot to give an under-rated Crows.
Essendon (2.10 @ Pinnacle)
Like I said, Kangas just can't score, and sometimes things are just as simple as the hghest score wins!
26 shots v. a terrible Melbourne, 20 and 19 last 2, Essendon allow a few but so did Hawthorn untill last week! Kangas holding teams ok, but Melbourne hardly count, the Doggies game was wet, and the Bombers have the second best scoring efficiency in the AFL (1.73)
They've been good last 2, beaten away by what looks to be a decent Port...certainly happy to take them in this spot as small dogs.
As for the rest...I kinda like the Pies to keep it close. Brisbane don't score much...do play very good D at home tho. Will be more interested in a total.
Saints belt Freo obviously, but they do actually have a decent record in the Dome. Haven't lost by more than 38 in their last 10 there, inc. a 29 loss with Saints 1.16 favs.
Pretty sure Richmond win too, but you won't catch me laying 20 points with them!!
Doggies/WC is an interesting game. The difference between WC's home/away form was massive...looks like it might be again. Dogs had less I50's than Freo in rd. 1, and just 3 more shots, gave up 29...
...Eagles didn't lose a game at home last year when they had more than 24 shots.
Is supect it will be a high scoring game (given good weather)...and WC aren't without a chance.
Good Luck all
How are Carlton favs at the SCG?! I thought it was a typo until I looked at a couple of other books. Madness.
A massive win over a bottom 2 team a season does not maketh...(or something equally as philosophical )...A hard fought win over a not so good out-of-state Brisbane...then no statistical 'gimmicks' last week, the were squarely beaten by the Bombers in just about every area.
Swans beaten by just about the best team in the comp. at ther pet ground (St. K), and struggled to score agaisnt a solid defensive home team @ Brisbane (Still had just 3 less shots)...
...but already after 3 rounds, the Blues have the second worst defensive numbers in the AFL. (a score every 1.72 entries...only Freo worse), so they will have to dominate the middle to get a win here.
Sydney score so well at the SCG as it is...av. 120 ppg (31 shots) in their last 10 (7 last year).
Have won 10 straight v. Carlton, 6 straight v. Blues at SCG, 3 as big dogs...
Really does seem a silly price.
...but if you want silly prices, Port @ 3.85!!
As I said last week, the Hawks defensive midfield pressure just isn't there so far this year, allowing 51 I50's per game, up from about 42 last year!!...which is exposing their poor defense...well, agaist anyone who can score that is, which North clearly can't [but more on that later ]
Were allowing a shot every 1.4 entries before North butchered 54 chances last week! :cursin:
Just 3 more I50's last week, but tellingly have had less contested ball and clearances (62-90 last 2!) in every game so far...one win, against a bad team.
You could argue Port's form too, beating Melbourne and av. Ess and losing to the "lowly" Eagles (although they were very good at home even last year)...but a scoring efficiency equal 3rd in the AFL with Carlton and the Doggies (1.76) will mean that they will score some points.
They scored every 1.59 entries in last year's game (@ Launceston) but held to just 42 I50's and lost by just 15 points, unlikely to be the case again here.
Port played at the MCG just once last year and belted North by 76, won 3 of 4 in 2007 losing the GF...
Yeah sure, no Cassisi, Peter (and maybe Shaun) Burgoine, but Hawthorn can barely field a team! Add Birchill and Ellis to the list from last week...If Taylor doesn't get up I'd nearly have Port as favs!
Crows +23.5
I just don't think Geelong have been that impressive so far. Barely scraped passed a god-awful Richmond, and got a bit lucky last week with Collingwood's kicking for goal...I certainly don't think the Crows are any worse than those two.
Lost at home to St. Kilda, but Saints allowing an amazing 39 I50's per game, Geelong 49.
Both have played Collingwood and Crows did statistically better (better still since they were on the road) [+4 shots to +2, +6 I50's to +0, +10 contested possessions to +3]...
...tough to pick them to win given the Cats have won a million of their last million and 2, but 23 points does look like a lot to give an under-rated Crows.
Essendon (2.10 @ Pinnacle)
Like I said, Kangas just can't score, and sometimes things are just as simple as the hghest score wins!
26 shots v. a terrible Melbourne, 20 and 19 last 2, Essendon allow a few but so did Hawthorn untill last week! Kangas holding teams ok, but Melbourne hardly count, the Doggies game was wet, and the Bombers have the second best scoring efficiency in the AFL (1.73)
They've been good last 2, beaten away by what looks to be a decent Port...certainly happy to take them in this spot as small dogs.
As for the rest...I kinda like the Pies to keep it close. Brisbane don't score much...do play very good D at home tho. Will be more interested in a total.
Saints belt Freo obviously, but they do actually have a decent record in the Dome. Haven't lost by more than 38 in their last 10 there, inc. a 29 loss with Saints 1.16 favs.
Pretty sure Richmond win too, but you won't catch me laying 20 points with them!!
Doggies/WC is an interesting game. The difference between WC's home/away form was massive...looks like it might be again. Dogs had less I50's than Freo in rd. 1, and just 3 more shots, gave up 29...
...Eagles didn't lose a game at home last year when they had more than 24 shots.
Is supect it will be a high scoring game (given good weather)...and WC aren't without a chance.
Good Luck all
