AFL Rd. 6

[MrChristo]

11-5' (+9.21)

Jumping on one early. West Coast @ 2.10 to beat Freo.
Great price, and I can't see it lasting.

Other than that, it looks a very tough week! Like one other dog, but price not as good as I'd hoped.

We'll see what develops during the week, I'm sure!

 

[jpblack34]

Mr. C, all do respect but I thought Bomber had issues. Didn't the dons game just finish? We've already got bets flying around. Just messing with ya bud. Thanks to you, Pawa, and coops for letting us coat tail from over in the states mate. GL to ya. JB

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks, JB. No worries at all mate.

I've taken over bomber's mantle as the sickest gambler of the week!!...Not sure if he's be happy about that or not?

Hopefully the Doggies will be getting about 10 points in what is sure to be a close game either way in Canberra.

Sydney was the one I really had my eye on...Bit disappointed with the 2.20 on offer tbh.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

You're a sick puppy Christo!!

Care for a wager on our match mate?!! :moon:

I read that Saints and Lions are faves at different books. Interesting to see what the numbers say.

What makes you like the Coasters so early? :shrug:

 

[bombercoops]

'C', couldn't believe it when I saw that you had already posted plays for this weeks action. I thought I had problems last week but I'm glad to see that someone else is just as sick! JB, good to see you on board as it's been a while mate. I guess those females are keeping you busy out there in west texas. Think sydney at 2.20 isn't too bad christo. Should be a cracker of a game as always and after the swans loss in sydney last week to the dees they might come out all guns blazing for this one. Little worried about it to be honest with you.
Pawa, let me know it you're keen for the roos/dons match mate so i can go ahead and make some travel arrangements.

 

[grey]

PAW, any follow up on dual favorites thing?

 

[MrChristo]

First and last time I do jump in this early! Eagles out to 2.15 now!

West Coast are being under-rated because of this weeks loss to lowly Carlton. Freo are just] travelling atm, imo.
Scraped passed Adelaide and Geelong @ home. Beaten a very inexperienced Blues in Rd. 1. and a very under-manned Collingwood.
West Coast have had a killer draw early....and I'm not that concernaed about a reasonably predictable loss this week.
We all know about the Eagles dominating the head-to-heads...14 of 18...and interestingly they have NEVER lost the first meeting of the year.
BIG statement game for WC. They DO NOT want to be 3 games behind the Dockers.

Not sure about a bet, PAWA....I might have a little nibble if we get a decent amount of points, but pretty hard to be confident with either of 'em!!
My number slightly favour Bisbane, but no way I could bet against the Saints as under-dogs!!

Terrible odds for Hawthorn. Tough to take Crows as favs. (Although I probably will!). Buckley and Tarrant should be back for Pies. Melbourne under 40 maybe??

 

[bombercoops]

If bucks and tarrant are back I'll jump all over the pies at 36.5. Melbourne line looks appealing also. Think sydney might be worth a look at 10.5 also.

 

[MrChristo]

Just played Sydney @ 2.35.

Said earlier I was a little disappointed with the 2.20, but looks a lot nicer now!
MCG no problem for Sydney. Won there last 2 games there by over 5 goals. Not that impressed with the Bombers still...shut down Hird and Lloyd and you go a ong way to winning. (Obviously easier said than done!!). Brett Kirk

Will hold until I see some more spreads...I reckon I can get better than +9.5 for the Doggies....ahem, SportsTAB??

Plays so far...West Coast (2.10), Sydney (2.35).

Melbourne 2.40 to win by under 40 on the TOTE. Certainly looks appealing to me.

 

[MrChristo]

Did I say SportsTAB??!

Did I say SportsTAB??!

Just got the Doggies +15.5 (1.85) :tongue

Lots of talk coming out of Geelong that they are very tired from the game in Perth last Sunday. It was 30 dg over there, and Geelong will be bascially doing recovery all wekk rather than any full on training.
Graham is some doubt too with a groin strain...Although Carey hasn't trained all week for the Crows! (No-one seems to know why!)
Shouldn't matter. Crows have a very good record at Geelong.
They have won 8 of the last 10 meetings overall, and 3 of 4 @ Geelong. (inc. the last 2, and in the one loss they had 32 scoring shots to 24 and lost by 7 points!! )
Crwos have a much better midfield, and provided they can cap off the good work up forward they should win this game.

So...all done for the week...what started as a tough round has transformed in quite a few bets!:

West Coast WIN @ 2.10 (2.26 available @ pinnacle)
Sydney WIN @ 2.35 (2.46 avainlable @ pinnacle)
Bulldogs +15.5 @ 1.85
Melbourne 1-39.5 @ 2.40
Adelaide WIN @ 1.80 (1.87 available @ pinnacle)
Brisbane -4.5 @ 2.10

Hope everyone has a good week.

Oh, PAWA...I nearly forgot. Given the state of both out clubs how about a little side wager?
You give me the Dogs +10.5, and the loser must buy a membership for the other team!
Let me know what you think about it.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Mate......if you think I'd give you +10.5 versus my Roos given their display over the last 2 weeks.........YOUR CRAZY!!!! :nono:

It's head to head only pal. And I was thinking something more along the lines of bowing to the others team in some form, in a 'signature' at the bottom of our MadJacks posts. 8 weeks worth should be enough humble pie me thinks!!

I couldn't bring myself to paying money into another clubs membership!!

Step up to the plate if you dare

 

[PAWAQATSI]

8 - 9 (-0.58)

Using the numbers method that I mentioned last week (that ran 8-0 over the previous 3 weeks), the strongest picks are Brisbane, Fremantle and Melbourne.
So I'll wrap them up in a multi for 1 unit @ $4.90

Worth keeping them in mind if you just play moneylines. Hopefully the percentages remain high.

Plenty riding on the system so thats the big game but this will keep me interested in some of the others.

 

[beast2]

Year to date: 9-8 (+0.1)

Round 6 Play
Richmond +19.5 d Hawthorn
Two teams who have both lost 4 since winning in round one meet in what should be a close match on current form. They played twice last year each winning one each with the margin never more than ten points. I therefore do not understand why Hawthorn is such a large favourite and play on Richmond is warranted.

Further plays later.

Craig

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Nice work Beasty!!

 

[beast2]

It was good to get a win on the Richmond play. Never was really in doubt with the way they jumped Hawthorn at the beginning.

Further Round 6 Plays:
West Coast +7.5 d Fremantle
Another great match where I can not split the two teams. West Coast are being underrated and are a better team than ladder position suggests with two losses by under a goal. Freo have been winning without being outstanding. I agree with Christo and like West Coast here as slight underdogs.

Adelaide d Geelong
Adelaide have won the last three against Geelong and finally looked like a team with a structure against Richmond. Geelong have complained about the 32 degree heat in WA whilst Adelaide will have had a 9 day break. At an even game I just think there are enough positives to back an Adelaide victory.

Melbourne -13.5 d Carlton
Melbourne are on fire at the moment with 4 straight wins and playing great footy. Carlton had a win last week against a poor West Coast but apart from that have only looked ok in patches this year. Melbourne have won the last two against Carlton. Melbourne should win by 20+ points if they play up to recent form and therefore I'm backing Melbourne to cover.

Other Plays:
Other Matches:
Kangaroos - Western Bulldogs
A very even matchup based on recent form. Kangaroos have struggled the last few weeks as did the Bulldogs last week, Bulldogs weren't as bad as score suggests against Port as 1.10 in the 2nd was what cost them any chance. Kangaroos have a great record at Manuka and at 9.5 point favorites match with what I expected so no play.

St Kilda - Brisbane
St Kilda, the challenger go up against Brisbane, the defending premier in what can only be described as absolute cracker of a match. I have seen both teams this year against Adelaide and both were oustanding. St Kilda won the corresponding match in Round 11 last year by 5 points and I hope it is as close as that. I want to back St Kilda but would need of odds of 2.00 and the best i can find is $1.95 (Plus I would be going against the express which I am reluctant to do).

Essendon -Sydney
Essendon have won three in a row but have won the games with bursts. Sydney have played well in previous weeks despite losing to Melbourne last week. Sydney also have a decent record at the MCG. A line of 13.5 is spot on as far as I am concerned so no play

Port v Collingwood
Port will beat Collingwood but the 35.5 line puts me off as it did last week in the Brisbane game. Here in Adelaide there is also a forecast of rain all weekend which may make it harder for a 6 goal plus blowout.

Craig

 

[MrChristo]

Good call on Richmond last night, Craig! Never in doubt.

Sorry, PAWA. Won't have a bet today. I'm sure the winner will give the loser enough of a ribbing to make it worth while anyway!

2 tv's set up in lounge. Big afternoon on couch! Good luck to everyone......Might even begrudgingly accept a small Kanga's win!

 

[bombercoops]

I see that the dogs are down by just 7 with half of the final quarter to play. I bet you guys are sweating it right now! Pawa, will get my tickets in order for the flight to melbourne in early July and beg to differ at the fact that you think it may be one sided. Will let you know when I have finalised it all mate!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Bulldogs kick 7 straight to 1 goal 3 in the last qtr. WTF??
Kangaroos are a ****en disgrace. What a ****en birthday present this is. Brisbane better win tonight or else I'll be in a coma come sunday morning. Ya can stick this game up ya arse!!

:moon:


:thefinger

 

[MrChristo]

WOW!!!

I know I was on the right side of that...BUT....THAT WAS ONE OF THE BEST GAMES EVER!!!

Amazing game all day!....Even more amazing that the winning goal was possibly THE worst effort in history!! Make sure you catch a replay if you can, bomber! Too tough to describe!
Brad Johnson and Cooney ALONE in the goal square, Johnson grabs it and falls over!!..Hands and knees, ball trickling away towards goal line, SOMEHOW swung around and toed it through!!

I'm SO pumped. Will be very, VERY drunk at some point tonight before I pass out. Go Brissy and Eagles.

Just hearing Boyd reported for that BRUTAL [sarc.] hip and shoulder to Harvey's waist!! No worries there.

WOOF WOOF!!!!!!

 

[bombercoops]

How about this weekends games thus far. Amazing round of footy! Will be all over that re-run of the dogs/roos game like a priest on a 10 yr old boy! Can't wait to watch it. Pissed about the lions going down by 1 point also as I'm sure we all are. Hopefully we can find a solid game to fire at today to make up for it. By the way, did the saints steal it or were they leading coming in to the last 10 mins or so??:shrug: