AFL Rd. 6

[MrChristo]

10-6' (+3.39)

Jumping on one here early guys, 'cause I have to believe the big Fev might get a week or two tonight.

Hawthorn 2.07 (Pinnacle)

The Hawks have won 5 of the last 6 meetings, losing last year by 12 points...But, they had 20 more possessions and 6 more inside 50's!
Two things stand out...Fevola took 9 marks and kicked 6 goals, and the Hawks only managed 18 shots from 47 inside 50's.
Like I said, I expect Fevola to be suspended tonight, and the Hawthorn forward line is functioning a lot better lately.
They had 29 shots v. Richmond (but kicked 12.17), scored 115 v. Brisbane, and 89 v. the Kangas last week who have been very good defensively.
They now play Carlton, who have allowed 103+ in all 5 games this season, @ 110 ppg.
I'd have to think that Hawthorn will go into this game as favs if Fevola is out, so 2.07 is great odds, imo.

 

[MrChristo]

Port -14.5

Don't let the ladder fool you all, Richmond are still the worst team in the AFL by a fair margin!
Like I said last week, undeserved wins v. Dogs and Hawks and got a weakened Freo team at home.
They've played 2 top sides and been beaten by over 10 goals in both of them.
Port haven't exactly been firing either, but a decent performance against a quality Geelong last week showed that they are improving each week.
Port have won the last 6 meetings, all by more than 15 @ 46.8 ppg.
Another big loss this week brings Richmond and their supporters back to earth with a thud....where they belong

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Having not done my figures yet for this week, they look like two good calls Christo. The Hawks especially. I reckon the Fev has to go for at least one week.

I still can't believe Hird got off without suspension for almost snapping that guy's back in half with a late charge!! :scared

I guess that 20k is still buying some 'service'.

 

[MrChristo]

Na. Not much in that, I didn't think PAWA.

Bit like the Chris Grant one in Pre-season...Pretty hard to stop, and turns into as much protecting yourself during contact as anything else.

Got a question for you guys (please, everyone feel free to answer)...
After 5 weeks of football, Geelong have allowed the opposition 63.96% goal accruacy.
Is this just luck/chance, or can we put it down to their opposition getting the ball a) closer to goal, and/or b) more in front of goal (ie. less angle)??

Just for some comparison, next worst is Carlton (61.03%), and the 2 'best' are Freo (41.94%) and Melbourne (43.57%).

 

[PAWAQATSI]

After 5 weeks of football, Geelong have allowed the opposition 63.96% goal accruacy

I think your Bulldogs are going to need this rate of accuracy to beat em down at Skilled Stadium this week Christo!!

Interesting stat though. There has to be a reason for this number being so high. I don't think luck comes into it.

On the new AFL site "live game" page for the matches it is interesting to see where the shots at goal are coming from. Perhaps if you go back and check a few games from those clubs you will notice a trend. :shrug:

 

[MrChristo]

I think your Bulldogs are going to need this rate of accuracy to beat em down at Skilled Stadium this week Christo!!

Well, the thing is, PAWA, that it does seem to be the one place we can kick straight! :clap:
We have won the our last 5 games @ Geelong!...Without kicking more points than goals in any game for a total of 76.46.

That is one of the reasons I asked...I was comparing Geelong to Melbourne and saw that Geelong were a fair bit better defensively...BUT, due to their opponents' straight kicking, Geelong have actually allowed in more points!

Might be best if I leave this one alone, I seem to be thinking about it way too much!

And thanks mate, good suggestion about the 'live score' for where goals are kicked. Will go and have a look. Can you access old games? I know you can for the old HTML ones.
I'll have a fiddle about. :mj14:

 

[PAWAQATSI]

We have won the our last 5 games @ Geelong!...Without kicking more points than goals in any game for a total of 76.46.

I hope you're not talking yourself into your mob C?

Allow me to play 'Devil's advocate' for a minute.

Your Bulldogs haven't played @ Skilled since '03 and when you did play, the Cats were 14th on the ladder and you guys were 16th!!

You only played them once last season @ Telstradome and they pounded you by 46 points. Needess to say they are as good a team now, if not better, than your slowly improving Doggies.

Geelong are undefeated at home over the last 10 including not dropping a game there in '04.

My system also has you in big trouble this week.

This week the Cats also unveil their new $28 Million Stadium redevelopment so they will be pumped right up!!

Steer clear is my tip!

 

[MrChristo]

I had a feeling you were gunna say all that, PAWA!


You're right...It was 14th v. 16th...now it's 6th v. 8th!

Everyone pounds us at the dome!...Geelong are much better statistically at the dome than 'home' anyway.

Our last game there was in 2003, but we won as 2.60 'dogs. 3 of the 6 wins have been as 'dogs. (2.00 and 3.40!)

Geelong are undefeated at home in the last 10, but only 4 have been bigger wins than 19 points, v. 3 interstate teams and Hawthorn last year!

The Doggies showed last week that they can simply outscore teams...Adelaide had the best defense, and the Dogs put up 140 on them!

As luck would have it, we've played 3 common teams (Melb, @ WC and Rich) and the Tigers was the only game there was more than 14 points difference...in a game the Dogs played very poorly.

In the end, I think you're right....It may be best to steer clear, and just yell alot at the telly on Sunday!
(oh, and wait for the total and hit over whatever number they post!)

 

[Cartman88]

Hi Guys,

A bit pushed for time this week so have only had a limited look at the Fri/Sat games.

With Fevola out have to lean towards Hawthorn now - missed out on the $2.08 earlier in the week but still good value at $1.98 and well worth a play.

Hawthorn $1.98 vs Carlton (1 unit)

If Freo play like they did against Richmond they get hammered again - if Freo can reproduce some of their Subiaco form then they should cover the line - gut feeling is Melbourne will win easily but not prepared to lay 32 points.

Originally was keen on Adelaide this week - but Kangaroos have a solid record in Adelaide (winning 8 of their past 15) and not keen on giving 12 points start to a side who are really confident right now and will keep fighting to the death.

Slight lean on Brisbane with Brown back and Essendon with only 5 days break - but anything could happen and no play for me.

West Coast are on fire and will beat Sydney - there is some bad weather forecast in Perth on the weekend which may help Sydney limit the damage - not prepared to back either side.

Have not had a decent look at the Sun games yet - but very keen on Wstn Bulldogs +22.5 and Port Adelaide -14.5

 

[MrChristo]

Collingwood +39.5 (1.85)

Just too many points given the Saints? outdoor form.
They have lost 7 of 10 @ the MCG (dating back to Rd. 9, 2001), and also 7 of 11 in all other outdoor venues dating back to Rd .22, 2003!
The biggest win was by 51 over Sydney in a Semi final last year, but besides that, no win has been by more than 28 points.
Collingwood haven?t lost a game by more than 37 @ the MCG in their last 10.
And, although Collingwood are without Rocca, they should be able to score enough to keep the game close against the Saints who allow a shot at goal every 1.87 entries into their 50?better only than Richmond, the Bulldogs and Hawthorn.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Probably right with the Saints line C, even though the Pies are 'trash'!

I'll be backing Beasty's Crows against my Roos. We simply aren't that good to win over in Adelaide.

Riding the Hawks tonight.

 

[beast2]

Year to Date: 12-6 for +2.5 Units

Pawa, Hope you are right with the Crows. It's a game I am avoiding. Hopefully its a higher scoring game than last year.

Round 6 Plays
Carlton 1.95 d Hawthorn
Brisbane -6.5 d Essendon
Port -14.5 d Richmond

Craig

 

[MrChristo]

Adelaide v. Kangas....

0.74 units UNDER 178.5 (2.35)
0.26 units 179-198 (3.90) [Will give money back]

Last 5 Kanga games at AAMI have been 165 or less! And 7 of the last 10 have been under 188.
Adelaide have allowed 92+ only once in their last 10 @ home...Last 3 games have been 181 or less, and 6 of the last 10 have been 181 or less.
Both teams are very good defensively, and the Kanga's haven't allowed over 93 yet in 5 games, av. just 83 ppg against.

Like this one to be another low scorer, but will have a small saver...really can't see it going over 198.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Easily under C. Nice call. I knew our bubble was due to burst. Though we did give em a fright in the last 5 minutes!


I've just finished watching a 'Carey-esque' performance from the returning Jonathon Brown. Geez he was good to watch. Reminds me so much of 'the King'. 20 possies and a lazy 8 goals!

 

[MrChristo]

Geelong v. Doggies...

0.74 units over 210.5 (2.35)
0.26 units 191-210 (3.90)

Dogs average the most points for and against.
Geelong have the most inside 50's (58 pg), Dogs have the 3rd most (56.4).
Geelong has a decent defense, but the Dogs showed last week that they can put a score up on any team (Crows had the best defense coming into last week).
Dogs have scored at least 94 in each of their lasdt 5 games @ Geelong Av. 100 ppg.
Geelong have scored 99+ in 3/5 games this seasno, and kicked 8.18 and 8.14 in the other 2.
Dogs have scored 107+ in 4/5 and kicked 11.18 in the other..They've also allowed at least 25 shots at goal in every game so far.
Weather looks to be holding up ok. Should be a shootout.

 

[Cartman88]

Adding the following plays:

Wstn Bulldogs +22.5 vs Geelong (1 unit)
Port Adelaide -13.5 vs Richmond (2 units)

 

[MrChristo]

****, ****, ****, ****, ****, ****, ****, ****, ****!!!!

2 from 2 @ Kadina. Grant in 2002, now Darc, and another season goes down the drain.
(Not to mention my total today, but that's small fry.)


12-8' (+2.99), but I'm strugling to care any more just at the minute.

 

[beast2]

Another interesting round is complete going 2-1 for +0.8 Units.

Pawa, have to commend the roos on a great effort. Do they ever give up in those last quarters? Thought they were gonna steal it at the end but the Crows just hung on.

Another unexplainable result with Freo beating Melbourne.

Jonathon Brown was awesome against Essendon. The most dominating performance I have seen in a long time.

How bad are Port? They cost me money again. This brings it to a total of 5.2 Units I have lost betting on Port this year. Think they will be one to avoid for the next few weeks.

As for Darcy that is tragic news for the Bulldogs. I can remember when Shaun Rehn went down for the Crows at Aami stadium and you could tell that the crowd and players were in shock after it happened and we lost.

Craig

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Yeah Beasty, they go hard in those last quarters don't they?! A couple of better decisions made by big Sav and a few others and we may have committed "highway robbery" on your boys!! The scoring shots reflected the true outcome though.

We back up next week against the struggling Port Power over there and it will be an interesting game considering that they always have been our "bitch"!!! A true premiership hangover they seem to be having. Perhaps we all have to start giving Richmond some true "cred".

I just hope the Express stays away from that game as they are so due to cut loose.