Tough week imo...I can't see a team I like (lots of totals in mind tho.)
My numbers say that Collingwod shouldn't be laying any more than 2 goals...Kangas have won the last 2 meetings as reasonable 'dogs...
...but they stopped like they were shot last week when Harvey went down...not to mention they can't score anyway.
Will be interested in a total, and not sure where it will be. Last week pretty much showed that setting AFL totals is still a very inexact science (I mean, honestly, the Rich/Nth total last week was some kind of crazy guess surely?! )...
...don't like margin bets, but Collingwood 1-39 looks more than an even chance...
I was really quite surprised at the Hawthorn/Carlton line...not that I think it's off (quite the opposite!)...but I thought the Hawks would be decent favourites...
...which is a shame, 'cause as I said, now I think it's about right.
Just about sick of talking about the Hawks each week...broken record stuff...but I can't believe they won last week given the numbers.
Last week was the first time they've won the clearances (36-34) but again got pumped in contested ball (109-139) as they have each game s far.
Carlton allowing (2) LESS I50's than the Hawks (unbelievable!!), better D, better up forwards, stupidly better as contested...
...but does history count for anything? Hawks won last 2 by 78 and 100! (Dome)...last 2 at MCG by about 4 goals each both as even prices...
...and they did lose to Essendon...
Like over 196.5...doubt I'll get a number that low.
First thought was the Eagles were good things, but now not so sure. As I said last week, Freo have been good at home...but Eagles haven't lost for over a year now with 24+ shots at home...
...Freo gave up 20 last week to a very forwardly challenged Swans...but did only allow 26 in the Dome v. St. Kilda...
Freo have won 5 of the last 6 Derby's...3 of them as reasonble dogs.
Really tough to get a read on for me now. Not sure numbers or history even point to a close one...Maybe <24.5> at a stretch, but not all that keen.
Actually agree with both sides above about the Bris/Ess game...ie. neither team will score! Total for sure here, and willing to go pretty low.
Brisbane have the second worst conversion in the AFL (behind Melbourne @ 2.29)...a bit overblown maybe by last week's 3.75, but just one week better than 2.08, and more importantly probably
142smilie ) haven't topped 25 shots yet.
Still reckon the whole zone thing is hurting Brisbane badly...same applies to Essendon. Lucas hurting/struggling, Lloyd trying to do too much and now sore anyway...
...there is the potential for a mis-match (or 2!) in the Essendon backline, but they'll throw numbers back to compensate.
15 looks a lot to cover, can't trust Essendon...under all the way.
Adelaide/Port <15.5> does look like a rivalry round special.
Overall av's have Port +2 I50's, Crows +3...both similar D...Port with slightly better conversion, but Ess, Melbourne, Hawthorn...as bad (in historic comparison) as the Crows D has been (I'd suggest 1.90 is the worst they've been for years), but Geelong are freaks [Crows had +8 I50's in that game!!!!] and Freo on the road hurt.
4 of the last 5 have been under 15, all 5 under 25...
Port have been up and down with the strength of opp...but the Crows seem content to keep games close with anyone! 4, 7, 4, 8, 2 shots difference in their games.
These odds surprise me every time...3.20 is big.
[Also looking at an under, but reckon the books will be with me on this one. ]
Hall a definate...Mi'lo looks 80/20...definately expecting a Swans win and decent odds off both teams "unexpected" results last week.
1.40 for the win looks generous, suspect 17 isn't too many points.
[Kinda randonly, now I look, only 3 teams allowing less I50's than Carlton...Crows, Geelong, St. Kilda!...
...even more randomly, but anyone taking a stab at the 5th best?....Freo!! :scared ]
Don't like getting involved with massive numbers...Geelong could (and should) win by 100+, but 4 weeks ago they beat Richmond by 20...go figure...
Pretty conservative odds here I would have thought for a 5-0 team with the biggest % in [my! ] memory!
Saints holding teams to an almost impossible 37 I50's a game!!...although equally impossibly have not played a Vic team yet!!!
Clearly the Dogges will top that...and when you look a bit closer, they are doing it at the back end...have only topped 27 shots once this year, in a game Kosi kicked 4 goals from 8 marks @ FF.
Dogs a little unlucky last week...tired legs no doubt, so really only bad kicking (it's gunna be a bad day when Gilbee and Higgins both miss easy ones early...tired legs )...and stupidly good kicking by Carlton was the difference.
Was on the Dogs last year in Rd. 3. (2.85)...a draw before that (3.65!), and a win mid last year as favs...
Aker in is HUGE as that lead-up forward...Murphy with a game up will be much better...
Like an under at a reasonable number...but I also think the Dogs are definately in this game...again, unfortunately, the books seem to agree.
Carlton 1.93
Crows/PA <15.5> 3.20
Sydney 1.43
Collingwood v. North under 198.5
Roos can't score. Their games av. <100 I50's a game, they have the second worst conversion (behind Melboure) an av. just 21 shots.
I don't see it improvng without Harvey in the line-up.
Collingwood have only topped 181 once this season, v. a crazily good scoring Geelong.
The Pies also have an amazing defensive record on Friday night (the old National Stage...even with the advent of Fox which is weird... )
Both teams allow <50 I50's per game so it's hard to see this being a shoot-out.
__________________
Good Luck all
My numbers say that Collingwod shouldn't be laying any more than 2 goals...Kangas have won the last 2 meetings as reasonable 'dogs...
...but they stopped like they were shot last week when Harvey went down...not to mention they can't score anyway.
Will be interested in a total, and not sure where it will be. Last week pretty much showed that setting AFL totals is still a very inexact science (I mean, honestly, the Rich/Nth total last week was some kind of crazy guess surely?! )...
...don't like margin bets, but Collingwood 1-39 looks more than an even chance...
I was really quite surprised at the Hawthorn/Carlton line...not that I think it's off (quite the opposite!)...but I thought the Hawks would be decent favourites...
...which is a shame, 'cause as I said, now I think it's about right.
Just about sick of talking about the Hawks each week...broken record stuff...but I can't believe they won last week given the numbers.
Last week was the first time they've won the clearances (36-34) but again got pumped in contested ball (109-139) as they have each game s far.
Carlton allowing (2) LESS I50's than the Hawks (unbelievable!!), better D, better up forwards, stupidly better as contested...
...but does history count for anything? Hawks won last 2 by 78 and 100! (Dome)...last 2 at MCG by about 4 goals each both as even prices...
...and they did lose to Essendon...
Like over 196.5...doubt I'll get a number that low.
First thought was the Eagles were good things, but now not so sure. As I said last week, Freo have been good at home...but Eagles haven't lost for over a year now with 24+ shots at home...
...Freo gave up 20 last week to a very forwardly challenged Swans...but did only allow 26 in the Dome v. St. Kilda...
Freo have won 5 of the last 6 Derby's...3 of them as reasonble dogs.
Really tough to get a read on for me now. Not sure numbers or history even point to a close one...Maybe <24.5> at a stretch, but not all that keen.
Actually agree with both sides above about the Bris/Ess game...ie. neither team will score! Total for sure here, and willing to go pretty low.
Brisbane have the second worst conversion in the AFL (behind Melbourne @ 2.29)...a bit overblown maybe by last week's 3.75, but just one week better than 2.08, and more importantly probably
142smilie ) haven't topped 25 shots yet.Still reckon the whole zone thing is hurting Brisbane badly...same applies to Essendon. Lucas hurting/struggling, Lloyd trying to do too much and now sore anyway...
...there is the potential for a mis-match (or 2!) in the Essendon backline, but they'll throw numbers back to compensate.
15 looks a lot to cover, can't trust Essendon...under all the way.
Adelaide/Port <15.5> does look like a rivalry round special.
Overall av's have Port +2 I50's, Crows +3...both similar D...Port with slightly better conversion, but Ess, Melbourne, Hawthorn...as bad (in historic comparison) as the Crows D has been (I'd suggest 1.90 is the worst they've been for years), but Geelong are freaks [Crows had +8 I50's in that game!!!!] and Freo on the road hurt.
4 of the last 5 have been under 15, all 5 under 25...
Port have been up and down with the strength of opp...but the Crows seem content to keep games close with anyone! 4, 7, 4, 8, 2 shots difference in their games.
These odds surprise me every time...3.20 is big.
[Also looking at an under, but reckon the books will be with me on this one. ]
Hall a definate...Mi'lo looks 80/20...definately expecting a Swans win and decent odds off both teams "unexpected" results last week.
1.40 for the win looks generous, suspect 17 isn't too many points.
[Kinda randonly, now I look, only 3 teams allowing less I50's than Carlton...Crows, Geelong, St. Kilda!...
...even more randomly, but anyone taking a stab at the 5th best?....Freo!! :scared ]
Don't like getting involved with massive numbers...Geelong could (and should) win by 100+, but 4 weeks ago they beat Richmond by 20...go figure...
Pretty conservative odds here I would have thought for a 5-0 team with the biggest % in [my! ] memory!
Saints holding teams to an almost impossible 37 I50's a game!!...although equally impossibly have not played a Vic team yet!!!
Clearly the Dogges will top that...and when you look a bit closer, they are doing it at the back end...have only topped 27 shots once this year, in a game Kosi kicked 4 goals from 8 marks @ FF.
Dogs a little unlucky last week...tired legs no doubt, so really only bad kicking (it's gunna be a bad day when Gilbee and Higgins both miss easy ones early...tired legs )...and stupidly good kicking by Carlton was the difference.
Was on the Dogs last year in Rd. 3. (2.85)...a draw before that (3.65!), and a win mid last year as favs...
Aker in is HUGE as that lead-up forward...Murphy with a game up will be much better...
Like an under at a reasonable number...but I also think the Dogs are definately in this game...again, unfortunately, the books seem to agree.
Carlton 1.93
Crows/PA <15.5> 3.20
Sydney 1.43
Collingwood v. North under 198.5
Roos can't score. Their games av. <100 I50's a game, they have the second worst conversion (behind Melboure) an av. just 21 shots.
I don't see it improvng without Harvey in the line-up.
Collingwood have only topped 181 once this season, v. a crazily good scoring Geelong.
The Pies also have an amazing defensive record on Friday night (the old National Stage...even with the advent of Fox which is weird... )
Both teams allow <50 I50's per game so it's hard to see this being a shoot-out.
__________________
Good Luck all
